About Behavioral Economics: Why Hawks Always Win and Doves Always Lose

horusThe belief in Rational Decision Making has been the focus of Economic Theory for a very long time.

Although everybody knew that Humans are Highly Impulsive and Emotional, Economists based their theoretical models of the Market on a Rational Human Being who is always able to Calculate the best Alternative possible. This Theory is wrong. The Economic Behavior is controlled by the Emotions.

The current economic crisis shows that the old Rational Theory is not applicable and the attention for alternative theories of Economic Behavior is rising. These theories are called Behavioral Economics.

An important paper in the development of behavioral economics was written by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979 (Prospect Theory, Analysis of Decision Under Risk). Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his research in Prospect Theory.

According to Prospect Theory, Humans attach much greater weight to future losses than to future gains related to their personal reference point. When you expect a certain gain in the future and this gain is lower than you expect the gain is experienced as a loss.

Kahmeman and Tversky became the experts on Cognitive Bias. A Bias is a “not-rational” mostly fast response to a stressful situation. In this case the Human System uses old structures (The Reptile Brain) that were created a very long time ago when the human lived in a completely different environment. The Reptile Brain uses many shortcuts to save time.

Social and cognitive psychologists have identified a number of predictable errors in the ways that humans judge situations and evaluate risks. Biases have been documented both in the laboratory and in the real world. For example, people are prone to exaggerating their strengths: About 80 percent of us believe that our driving skills are better than average.

In 2009 Kahneman and Renshon wrote a paper called Hawkish Biases. It is an attempt to unite the many Cognitive Biases into one Model. The model shows that Humans are highly Confused Predators (Hawks).

As a Predator they protect their Territory with every means possible. They are Confused because they are capable to Observe and Reason about their own behavior and the behavior of others.

Humans need the “Illusion of Control” to sustain their own Identity. Every time something happens they are looking for reasons to believe that they are the Primary Actor in their own context. They don’t want to believe that Other Human Beings are also Active Agents.

If they would believe this was the case their “Unrealistic Optimism” could change into “Realistic Pessimism”. Unrealistic Optimism makes managers, politicians and generals receptive to advisors who offer highly favorable estimates of the outcomes. Such a predisposition, often shared by leaders on both sides of a conflict, is likely to produce a disaster.

When a Human is Depressed by Realism he Loses his Face and moves down in the Picking Order of the Territory.

Humans believe that every other Human is always capable to see their Weaknesses (“the Illusion of Transparency“) just like they are convinced that the intentions of others are always clear to them (“the Fundamental Attribution Error“). To hide their Weaknesses they have to wear a Mask and Play the Strong Leader of the Pack. They have to Keep Up their Appearances.

doveHumans base their theory of the other on inferences about historical behavior and completely forget Situational aspects. When a context is hostile the other must be hostile too. When others behave differently from their expectations they suddenly introduce situational factors to sustain their believe system.

Humans need to sustain their believe-system because this system is the foundation of their personality. Their view on the World has to stay constant because when it changes too fast they will get into big psychological problems. When people get older their believe-system becomes very rigid.

Humans value their own possessions much higher as the possessions of others (“The Endowment Effect”). They even consider possible, imaginary, possessions as real possessions if they are convinced there is an easy way to get them.

If they lose a real or imaginary possession they take tremendous risks to get their possessions back (“Risk Seeking in Losses“). People in general don’t like cutting their losses. They’re willing to gamble on in the hope of recovering them.

Humans simply believe that a Hawk always wins the Game and a Dove always loses. What Humans (want to) forget is that they are living in a group and their In-Group and the many Out-Groups contains many Hawks. They need the confidence that they are “the best” to Survive.

The world of the Human Hawk is a world of Competition (Winner takes all) and therefore highly Stressful. The Sad Thing is that the many faces of Stress are the Major Cause of the Cognitive Bias. When Humans relax and reflect they are much more capable to solve a complicated conflict.

The competitive Hawks always fall in the trap of the Prisoners Dilemma and don’t realize that Cooperation, the Win-Win is the only Certain Way to Leave the Prison.

At this moment another Behavioral Economist, Robert Shiller, is getting a lot of attention. Together with the Economic Nobel Prize Winner George Akerlof he wrote the book “Animal Spirits“.

In the book they identify five distinct elements that blur the theory of the Rational Economy. These elements or “animal spirits” are called: confidence, fairness, corruption; money illusion and the reliance on “stories”of others.

The first three have a lot to do with the “hawk“-theory of Kahneman. The Hawks use the Rational System for their own benifit. They Play with the Rules and invent new exiting possibilities to win more than they ever could imagine.

Sometimes they Play Dirty Games to beat their Opponents. The Doves believe the Economic (Rational) Fairy Tales of the Hawks and are unable to understand the Real Value of their Money.

The Money Illusion is caused by Inflation. Inflation happens when prices Rise but the value of the objects that are priced stays the same. Inflation give people the feeling that they are making money but in reality they are losing money.

The Hawks use Inflation to keep the Doves Buying and Investing. They also use the weapon of Inflation to win the war with the other Hawks.

The Majority of the Human Beings are Doves. They believe the Hawks or are afraid of the Hawks. The Doves are the Workers in the Economy and they make it possible for the Hawks to Hunt.

The Hawks provide the Workers with many things to live an easy life until other Hawks start to Attack the Territory. In this case the Hawks need the Workers to fight and win the War.

Sometimes even the Hawks lose their Rational Capacity. They see a Big Win and become Greedy and Vulnerable. If this happens the Territory is open for other Hawks (The Chinese?) to enter and to take over without any problem.

What has Happened?

The Economic System is just like the Weather System a Cyclic System. When the Economic Cycles and the Weather Systems move UP the Hawks have an Easy Time. Their is enough food for all the Hawks. When the System is going Down Competition starts.

The Hawks forgot to look at the patterns. They did not see or believe that the downfall was approaching. They did not take enough stock to survive the Seven Bad Years. Suddenly the Autumn turned into Winter.

At this moment they are regrouping to create a Powerfull Alliance to take from the other Hawks what they need. They don’t care about the Doves. They always believe the Tales they Tell.

They are afraid of the Other Hawks that are outside their Huge Territory and are Prepared to Fight the Wars that are needed. The Doves will believe them as usual.

LINKS

About Prospect Theory and Conflict Resolution

About Economic Cycles

Kahneman/Renshon, Hawkish Biases, 2009

A Very Long List of Cognitive Biases

About the Prisoner Dilemma in Foreign Policy

An Abstract of the Book Animal Spirits

How the Chinese Networks are Conquering the World

A Review of the book Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller by Benjamin Friedman

About Enterprise 2.0 and the New World of Work

At this moment there is a lot of discussion going on about the New World of Work. In the New World of Work the new developments of the Internet 2.0 (Social Networks, Blogging, Twittering, etc) are used to Speed up the Work of the Knowlegde Worker. The infrastructure to make this possible is called Enterprise 2.0.

Enterprise 2.0 is : A System of Web (2.0)-Based Technologies that provide rapid and agile Collaboration, Information Sharing, emergence and integration capabilities in the Extended Enterprise. An Extended Enterprise is a Supply or Value Chain.

The definition of Enterprise 2.0 is constantly changing because Enterprise 2.0 is still a Concept. Many people are now struggeling to move from the concept/idea-stage to the realization-phase.

The main issue behind de term “Web 2.0” is the move from a Sender/Receiver-model, the One-Sided Website, to a more Collaborative use of the Internet (Discussions, Social Networks). According to the Inventors of the term Web 2.0 the “new web”, is a Collaborative Web.

For some reason they have forgotten that the World Wide Web (WWW) software of Tim Berners Lee was part of a Collaborative Platform to support the scientists that Participated in a Network called DARPANET. This network was created by DARPA, the Technological Think-Tank of the American Army in 1957!.

What is the definition of the term “Collaboration”?

The word “collaborate” comes from the Latin “Collaboratus” meaning “Work (Labore) together (Col)”. The term “to-gather” comes from the term “gadurojan” which means “in good fellowship” or “United“. When you Collaborate you are not working Alone but with Others United in Good Fellowship.

The Potential to Collaborate is an Aspect of the Personality.

The Personality Types of the Human Being can be described with two variables Agency and Communion. Comm-Union is the capability to Col-Laborate, to accomplish a Union. The variable Agency describes your relationship between the Self and the Other.

When you are High in Communion and Low in Agency you are suffering from a Dependent Personality Disorder. This disorder is characterized by a pervasive psychological dependence on other people. You always want to Collaborate and are very Emotional.

When you are High in Communion and High in Agency you are suffering from a Histrionic Personality Disorder. People with a Histrionic Personality Disorder have good social skills, but they tend to use these skills to manipulate other people to become the Center of Attention. They are very Imaginative.

According to Interpersonal Theory a “normal” person is able to Combine Two or More Interpersonal Faculties.

There are two Disorders left called Paranoid (High Agency, Low Communion) and Schizophrenic (Low Agency, Low Communion). Paranoid people have a big problem with their Expectation. They want to control the Future and Every Person in their Context. Schizophrenic people are completely influenced by their mostly Visual Senses. They See what they Want to See.

If you combine the Four Interpersonal Faculties (Emotions, Imagination, Expectations and Senses) Twelve Interpersonal, Collaborative, Patterns emerge. A good example is the Master(Paranoid)/Slave(Dependent)-Relationship (Expectation/Emotions). Some People Love to be Dominated by the Other.

Interpersonal Faculties can be combined into Collaborative Work Patterns.

In my blog about Vocation I showed that work is an Expression of the Personality. If you believe this is True and you believe Interpersonal Theory is True you have to admit there are Twelve Types of Work.

When you are highly Imaginative and Sensitive (You Believe Your Own Eyes, You are Realistic, Factual) you are an Entrepreneur, You want to bring An Idea into Reality. To Find the Facts you need an Information System to Investigate what is Happening. The Internet with all its Sources of Information is a beautiful tool to use.

To bring an Idea into Practice you have to Realize the Idea. In this case you need a Designer (Transform Ideas into Models) and a Maker (Bring Models into Reality). A Maker is not a Collaborative person (Low Communion). Makers want to work Alone.

When you create a Team of Makers to Realize your Idea the Team will fail. To avoid Competition the Designer has to define a Model (An Architecture and a Project Plan) in which all the Lonesome Workers are able to do their Specialized Job.

I hope you believe we are able to define a complete (meta)-Architecture and a (meta)-Plan to move around in the (meta)-Work-Space.

What is the Relationship between the Work Patterns and Enterprise 2.0?

An Enterprise is a combination of many people with many Collaborative Work-patterns. We could Specialize an Enterprise to perform one kind of Pattern. If we Specialize an Enterprise we have to combine many Enterprises in an Extended Enterprise to do Everything we Want to Do.

We need a Designer Company, A Sales Company, Visionairs, Entrepeneurs and other Roles to cover the Complete Spectrum of Work. If We want to Produce we always need the Makers. The Makers need a well defined Structure (A Hierarchy), a Plan and an Architecture, to operate in.

At this moment Enterprise 2.0 is nothing but a Concept. Somebody of High Agency and High Communion (A Creator) has gotten the Idea that the new 2.0 Internet is able to support an Enterprise.

 He hopes that the new tools will break down the Hierarchical Structure of the Organization of the Makers. Creators don’t like Hierarchies. They love Networks. If Creators are One-Sided, Histrionic, they want to Stay in the Center of Attention of the Network.

What Creators don’t realize is that Makers, the Majority of the Human Beings,  don’t want to use Collaborative Tools. They want to work Alone in their own Specialized Compartment of the Beehive.

Enterprise 2.0 is a Concept to support Innovation. Someday the Innovation has to be Stabilized. If we want to do that we still need Enterprise 1.0, The Factory until we find another Solution (The Robots?).

Don’t forget the Worker Bees. They Bring in the Honey.

About Vocation

vocationsA person’s happiness and satisfaction in life is a function of how he perceives work. People perceive their work in three general categories: jobs, careers, and vocation. People who perceive their work as a Vocation report the highest Satisfaction with Life in general.

A job is just a means of earning an income. When people have a job they look forward to breaks, quitting time, the weekend, holidays, and vacation. Outside of working hours, little or no thought, time, or energy is devoted to the work.

The word “vocation” comes from the Latin vocare, or voice – meaning to follow the voice of God, or to do what we are called to do. Young children know their calling but the System of Education and often their Parents make it very difficult for them to follow their Heart.  The main reason is that schools and many parents limit the vision of the child to a specific Career.

The word “career‘ has its origins in the Latin word for a Race-Track. A career is a race and the sad thing is that in a race only one person wins and many lose. People become highly frustrated and demotivated when they realize that they will not win the career. When this happens their work changes into a job or they start to look for their real vocation.

The most important difference between a Vocation and a Job is Direct Feedback. When you are a Nurse the positive response of the patient is the reward you are looking for. When you are an Artist or a Craftsman the enthusiasm of your customers for your product is a stimulus to move on. It is not strange that people who are experiencing their work as a job spend a lot of time in contexts (e.g. a soccer-club) where direct feedback is happening.

During the Industrial Revolution work became dehumanized and compartmentalized. Every worker controlled a small part of the production chain and/or was totally controlled by the production chain. The Feedback between the Result of the Work and Work is almost completely disappeared. Humans need Feed-Back. This is the main reason why the Employees in a Burocratic Factory Organization consider the Manager of their Career, their Boss, as their most important Customer.

When you want to understand Your real Vocation You could visit a Vocational Psychologist.

The creation of Vocational Psychology is linked to the emergence of the large commercial cities in which the factory system changed the keystone of the economy from agriculture to manufacturing. The factories needed specialized workers to operate and maintain the machines. The factories were managed by the principles of Scientific Management developed by Frederick Winslow Taylor. Scientific Management, the extreme drive to work Efficiently, is still the driving force behind the Automation of Work.

child labor

During the Industrial Revolution many young man left the countryside and went to the big cities to find a job. They worked 10 to 12 hours a day, six days a week. Far from home and family, they lived and slept at the workplace. Outside the shop open sewers, pickpockets, thugs, beggars, drunks, lovers for hire and abandoned children created a non-secure environment.

YMCA HistoryThe Young Men’s Christian Association (YMCA) was founded in London, England, on June 6, 1844.

The YMCA created Dormitories, Gyms, Swimming pools, Bowling Alleys, Meeting Halls, Employment Bureaus, Libraries, Psychological Tests, Training Courses and Vocational Guidance Programs for the workers in the factories.

One of the important products of the YMCA was the Find Yourself Program that was transformed into a book by C.C. Robinson in 1912.

General Electric, the major manufacturer of light bulbs, had preliminary evidence that better lighting of the work place improved worker productivity. In 1924 AT&T’s Western Electric Hawthorne plant located in Cicero, Illinois, was chosen as the laboratory. The scientists detected that work was not only a physiological activity. The huge interest of the management in the workers of the Hawthorne Plant simply increased their productivity. This was a break with the Scientific Management School that saw work productivity as “mechanical”, and led to the decision to learn more about the psychology and the personality of the worker.

John Holland began his career as classification interviewer for the Army. In 1959 he published his Theory of Vocational Choice, in which he first described Six Types of Vocational Personalities.  In 1969, he and his colleagues at the American College Testing Program discovered that the Six Types fit a circular ordering of correlations called the Holland Hexagon. John Holland discovered that work is an Expression of the Personality.

Realistic people like well-ordered activities, or enjoy working with objects, tools, and machines.

Investigative people like activities that involve creative investigation of the world or nature.

Artistic people like unstructured activities, and enjoy using materials to create art.

Social people enjoy informing, training, developing, curing and enlightening others.

Enterprising people enjoy reaching organizational goals or achieving economic gain.

Conventional people enjoy manipulating data, record keeping, filing, reproducing materials, and organizing written or numerical data.

There is a strong relationship between the Holland Codes and other “circular” personality theories like the Enneagram, Myers-Briggs, The Big Five and the Worldviews of Will McWhinny. Statistical research shows that the spread between the different personality types is almost constant. Personality Types are also inherited from the parents.

Since the development of the Holland Hexagon in the seventies the statistics show a high stability in the nature of occupations. The often discussed dramatic shift in the nature of work is not apparent in these data.  Although employment in the Investigative area, the Researchers, doubled over a period of 40 year it remained only 6% of employment. The Realistic Work Type, the Craftsman, has still the most occupational titles and the largest number of individuals employed. The Artistic Work Type (the Creators, 2%) has the fewest occupational titles and the fewest number employed.

What is Happening?

Work is an Expression of the Personality and the Personality is an Expression of the Work a person is Performing.

Personality Types and Work Types are distributed according to an almost constant distribution.

Personality Types and Work Types are inherited from the Parents.

The distribution is Not Without Any Sense.

There are Many Workers (Sheep) and just a few Shepherds needed.

Somebody has to Take Care of the Shepherds and the Sheep.

Somebody has to Keep the Books.

The Mythics, The Creators, The Artists, the Goats, Shape the Future but it takes a long time before the Sheep and the Shepherds follow the Creators.

The Creators (2%) are extremely Obstinate and Willfull. They want to take Care of Themselves, don’t accept any Leader or Helper, don’t care about Bookkeeping and Money and don’t want to Collaborate. They just want to find out Everything by Themselves.

The Creators are always remembered when they are dead.

That’s Life.

LINKS

About the History of Work

About The History of the YMCA

The History of Vocational Psychology, Mark Savickas, David Bakerf

A Short Introduction in Vocational Psychology

About the Hawthorne Effect

About the Big Five

About the Enneagram

About Myers-Briggs

About The Statistics of Myers Briggs

About the Holland Hexagon

A  Holland perspective on the U.S. workforce from 1960 to 2000

A Holland Perspective on the U.S. Workforce from 1960 to 1990

A Beautiful Visualization of the Changes in the Workforce between 1890 and Now

About Mythics and World Views

About the Cooperative

erup-laki-vulcanoOn 8 June 1783 the Laki Volcano in Iceland erupted. During 9 months the volcano produced an estimated 120 million tons of sulfur dioxide.

This amount was ten-times more than the amount that now comes from all of western European industrial sources in a year.

The Explosion of the Laki Vulcano triggered the Explosion of the French Revolution.

The cloud of sulfur dioxide in combination with a very strong El-Niño Cycle brought Extreme Weather Conditions for several years all over Europe. A huge amount of cattle and crops were destroyed causing extreme faminine and poverty.

french_revolutionThe great French revolution of 1789-1799 involved the most massive popular struggles that had yet been seen in history.

Rooted in popular hatred of an oppressive monarchy, the revolution rose on the backs of the masses of poor people in Paris who united under the banner of ‘liberty, equality and community’.

Liberty is no more than an empty shell when one class of men is allowed to condemn another to starvation without any measures being taken against them. And Equality is also an empty shell when the rich, by exercising their economic monopolies, have the power of life or death over other members of the Community” (The Red Priest, Jaques Roux).

The term “socialism” appeared in print in England in 1827. Five years later, the term was used for the first time in a French publication.

Socialism is a product of the Industrial revolution in England and the French Revolution.

One of the creations of the Socialistic Movement is the Cooperative. A Cooperative is a business organization owned and operated by a group of individuals for their mutual benefit. A Cooperative is the embodiment of the primary goals of the Revolution Liberty, Equality and Community.

rochdale_pioneersIn 1844 a group of 28 artisans working in the cotton mills in the town of Rochdale, in the north of England established the first modern co-operative business, the Rochdale Equitable Pioneers Society.

The weavers faced miserable working conditions and low wages, and they could not afford the high prices of food and household goods. They decided that by pooling their scarce resources and working together they could access basic goods at a lower price. Initially, there were only four items for sale: flour, oatmeal, sugar and butter.

The Pioneers decided it was time shoppers were treated with honesty, openness and respect, that they should be able to share in the profits that their custom contributed to and that they should have a democratic right to have a say in the business.

Every customer of the shop became a member and so had a true stake in the business. At first the co-op was open for only two nights a week, but within three months, business had grown so much that it was open five days a week. Within ten years there were over 1,000 co-operative societies in the United Kingdom.

RaiffeisenWilhelm Raiffeisen founded the first cooperative lending bank, a credit union, in 1864.

In 1867 Hermann Schulze-Delitzsch, a German liberal politician, obtained passage of a Prussian Law protecting Cooperative Associations. The Credit Unions evolved into a system of Cooperative Banking and Cooperative Insurance.

What Happened?

The explosion of the Laki Vulcano triggered the French Revolution. The slogan of this revolution, liberty, equality and community, has inspired many other revolutions all over the world until today.

The French Revolution was a revolution of the Underclass. It failed in the sense that the Calvinistic Bourgeoisie, the Middle Class, the owners of the Small and Medium sized Companies, took over the power from the Aristocracy.

The Bourgeoisie took advantage of the poor, mostly unemployed, Underclass to create a new system of Dominance, the Capitalistic system. In this system the poor slaves were forced to do productive work in the factories. The capitalistic elite invented new (The Consumer, Mass Media) systems to prohibit a new revolution.

russian revolutionIn the other countries (China, Russia, Cuba …) the revolutions of the underclass also failed. The old pattern of mass manipulation by a small elite always returns.

At this moment we see a new System of Dominance emerging. It is the fusion of Capitalism and Fascism, The Big Brother State.

The Big Brother State is using Mass Manipulation strategies in combination with Computer Technology (Pattern Recognition) and Mind Control.

The only successful Social and Socialistic System that emerged out of the French Revolution is the Cooperation.

This system has improved itself by introducing new structures based on Second Order Cybernetics (The Spiraling Organization) and new ways to create shared collaborative decisions (The Consent Principle, Sociocracy).

When Cooperations are too big the burocrats take over control. The Active members of the cooperative change into Voters. The old pattern of mass manipulation by a small elite always returns. Succesfull cooperations have to be based on a Human and a Local Scale.

What to Do?

The big burocratic corporations are unable to sustain in a huge crisis. The cooperative banks were never able to start highly risky financial gambling games. The principles of Rochdale prevent this.

At this moment the cooperative (now called a community) is on its return. Internet technology is created to support the cooperative. Cooperatives on a human scale (!) can be connected into big powerfull global networks.

I believe the French Revolution has finally reached its goal.

Arise, wretched of the earth
Arise, convicts of hunger
Reason thunders in its volcano
This is the eruption of the end
Of the past let us wipe the slate clean
Masses, slaves, arise, arise
The world is about to change its foundation
We are nothing, let us be all
This is the final struggle
Let us group together, and tomorrow
The Internationale
Will be the human race

(The Internationale)

LINKS

The history of Socialism by Friedrich Engels

About Third Order Cybernetics

About Calvinism

About Sociocracy and the Consent Principle

About the Invisible Fascist State

About Neo-Capitalism and Fascism

About the Calvinistic Work Ethic

time spiral

The Hebrew belief system viewed Work, seen as Manual Labour, as a Curse devised by God to punish Adam and Eve when they sinned in the Garden of Eden.

Ponos is the Greek word for work, which originated from the Latin poena, meaning sorrow. At it’s core, work was associated with pain and drudgery. It was the divine punishment for man’s original sin and viewed as a necessary evil.

For the Greek and Romans and almost every other Ancient Culture, the Dirty, Manual, Work was to be done by the Slaves. Until Now nothing has really changed.

The only suitable occupation for a free man was Farming and Trade. Just like today the Greek and the Roman wanted to save their money to enjoy their retirement in their own Garden of Eden, the Country Side.

During the Medieval period, the feudal system was the dominant economic structure in Europe. People believed in Destiny and Predestination. At that time it was sinful to seek work outside the occupations Fathers passed on to their Sons.

Farmers turned into Farmers and Slaves became Slaves again.

During the 15th century the centralization of government, the growth of trade, and the establishment of economically powerful towns, destroyed the Feudal system.

In the 15th century the world climate started to change dramatically. Temperatures dropped and the Little Ice Age started. Before that time the nice climate caused an increase of the population by 25%-40%.

At the same time the economy was hit by a very high inflation (300-400%). This was caused by the import of large quantities of silver and gold from Mexico and Peru.

The unemployment rate rose to 20%. Many people moved to the Cities to find a decent job. The big cities could not provide employment and the poor immigrants turned into “lazy” beggars.

john-calvin
John Calvin

John Calvin (1509-1564) believed that only a few people, the Elect, were predestined to inherit Eternal Life. A lazy person, the beggar in his hometown Geneva, was certainly one of the Damned.

John Calvin believed that men were to reinvest the profits of their own labour into financing further ventures.

The Sons of the Fathers were obliged to find a better, more profitable, future outside the context of their father’s occupation.

Helping the Poor and the Sick violated God’s will since persons could only demonstrate that they were among the Elect through their Own Productive Labour.

The Protestant, Capitalistic, Work Ethic (Calvinism), spread throughout Europe and America through the Protestant Sects and turned into one of the most important Western Work Ethics.

The moral sanction to profit making through hard work, organization, and rational calculation generated numerous small enterprises all over the world.

Hard Work and Abstinence of Pleasure became the Work Ethic of Western Culture.

mill
The Mill

During the Industrial Revolution the Calvinistic Entrepeneurs made a Fatal Mistake. They adopted the Concept of the Mill and started to mechanize the Crafts and Agriculture.

The old Feudal System and Slavery was re-introduced. In the factories, Skills and Craftsmanship were replaced by Discipline and Anonymity.

The Human became a disposable part of a big structure. The foundation of Calvinism, the direct relationship between Hard Work and Personal Growth was broken.

The Local Enterprise could not compete with the efficient Factories and later their outlets the Supermarkets. The Farmers, the Craftsman and the owners of Small businesses were forced to work in the Factories.

Local Communities started to disintegrate.

Unemployement started to rise and again many people moved to the Big Cities to find a decent job. The beggars, the Damned, appeared again. History repeated itself.

The Factories created a new class of Slaves, The Proletariat. They organized themselves in the Unions and Political Parties. The Struggle of the Classes started.

The Owners of the Factories responded by creating Consumer Products and Mass Media to keep their new customers, the Blue Collar Worker, satisfied. The new industrial wave generated New Industrial activitity and New Jobs. The distance between work and the result of work widened.

RobotLine
Robot Factory

In the late 1950’s the Factories needed more highly skilled “white collar” workers to program and manage their machines.

Later the machines were programmed by more advanced software until the Factories were transformed into almost fully automated Production-Lines.

The Blue Collar Worker left the Factory and History Repeated itself again.

Around 1980 the Programmers took over Control.

The Factories were connected into worldwide Value-Chains. The Logistic “just-in-time” Paradigm (SAP) became the Norm. The Industrial Logistic Paradigm is now implemented in the Services Industry.

The new White Collar Worker, the Knowlegde Worker, will also lose his job when their activities are fully standardized and their Company, the Advisory Bureau, is transformed into a Factory.

What nobody saw in 1980 is that the Rational System started to live its Own Life. Not the Programmers but the Program became the Manager of the Worldwide Economic System.

Even the Programmers themselves are now completely unaware of the total functionality of the System they have programmed.

child_robot
Robot Child

An increasing amount of processes and therefore Human Activities is standardized and has been absorbed by the System. It is no longer true that producing more means working more or that producing more will lead to a better way of life.

Neither is it true any longer that the more each individual works, the better off everyone will be. The System no longer needs everyone to work and is bringing the Western World back to the state of the Garden of Eden.

The Calvinistic Work Ethic is still viable. When you don’t work you are damned. The amount of Work in Western Society is decreasing with the speed of Light and Governments are extremely focused to create new work. The only thing that is left is to create artificial work.

To accomplish this almost impossible task governments are now professionalizing and rationalizing almost every Social Activity (Child Care, Helping Your Neighbor, a Friendly Advice, Coaching, Taking Care of your Family, …). The Care Industry is Booming.

What Has Happened?

robot barber
Robot Barber

We are rationalising every Activity. The effect is an imcomprehensible reality. Something, the Computer, is taking care of us but we don’t know how She is operating and She is not communicating with us in our own language.

When she fails we don’t know what to do. We are totally dependent on a Highly Intelligent Cold Non-Human, an Autist. She was Programmed to be our Slave but she has turned into the Master of Our Destiny.

We are still not accustomed to a situation where something, a machine, is doing the dirty work. We are removing jobs with the millions but we believe we still have to work to aquire Eternal Life.

To preserve Employment we invent new jobs but we are also rationalizing the new jobs. The Cycle of the Creation and Destruction of Jobs is moving faster and faster and is generating a very high Stress on Society.

The affect of the huge tension to work is a total destruction of the social environment of the human being. Everybody is working 24 hours 7 days a week, has to spend all his time to find a job or has to educate himself to learn a new trade. Everytime the trade is aquired the Program changes and the employee has to start again to learn to operate a new piece of Software.

Mothers and Fathers are unable to take care of their Children. Children our unable to take care of their Parents when they are old. Everybody has to take care of himself and every service has be paid. The Social Cohesion of our Society is now at stake.

riba-robot-nurse-0
RIBA the Robot Nurse

Not only the Social Cohesion is at stake but the Costs in the Care-Industry are Exploding and nobody knows how to solve this problem.

The only solution the Rationalist can imagine is to replace the Human by the Robot, the Always Obedient Slave.

Scientists are convinced there will be a time when the Robots will take over every job we can imagine. The Robots will not only take over the jobs but they will also Raise and Educate our Children, Take Care of the Old and even make it possible to Take Care of Robot Children and other Artificial Pets.

What to do?

We have to Accept that the Rational System will Take Care of Us. If this happens we have to leave behind the Calvinistic Work Ethic and Enjoy Life in the Artificial Garden of Eden.

We will live in a Artificial Reality created by the Simulator (the Matrix). If we want to stay out of this Artificial Garden of Eden we have to Stop the System and start to do the Dirty Work again.

We can also accept the machines and do the things humans were created for and become creators and caretakers ourselves..

LINKS

About the Matrix

Why the Robot will take over everything we do

About the Device Paradigm of Alfred Borgman and Artificial Reality

About the Middle Ages

About the Industrial Revolution

About the End of Social Cohesion

About Rationalism

About the Human Scale

About the Autistic Computer

About the strange effects of the Care Industry

About the Struggle of the Classes

About RIAB the Robot Nurse

About (Software) Quality

When I attended the University of Leiden Software-Development was in its infancy. In 1969 just a few people were programming for the simple reason that the amount of computers was very low. It took a lot of time (many weeks), intelligence and perseverance to create a small working software-program.

At that time the effect of a software-program on other people was very low. Software-programs were used by the programmers themselves to solve their own problems.

When User-Interfaces, Databases and Telecommunication appeared it became possible to create software for Many Non-Programmers, Users. The software-systems got bigger and programmers had to cooperate with other programmers.

When the step from One-to-Many was made in the process of software-development and exploitation, Software-Quality became on very important issue.

What is Software?

A Software-program is a sequence of sentences written in a computer-language. When you speak and write you use a natural language. When you write a computer program you use an artificial, designed, language.

The difference between natural and artificial languages is small. Esperanto is a constructed language that became a natural language. Perhaps all the natural languages were constructed in the past.

Software programs are very detailed prescriptions of something a computer has to do. The specifications of a software-program are written in a natural language (Pseudo-Code, Use-Case).

To create Software we have to transform Natural Language into Structured Language. The big problem is that Natural Language is a Rich Language. It not only contains Structural components but is also contains Emotional (Values), Imaginative ((Visual) Metaphors) and Sensual Components (Facts). The most expressive human language is Speech.

In this case the Tonality of the Voice and the Body Language also contains a lot of information about the Sender. When you want to create Software you have to remove the Emotional, Imaginative and Sensual components out of Human Language.

What is Quality?

According to the International Standards Organization (ISO), Quality is “the degree to which a set of inherent characteristics fulfills requirements“. According to the ISO the quality of a software-program is the degree in which the software-coding is in agreement with its specification.

Because a specification is written in natural language, Quality has to do with the precision of the transformation of one language (the natural) to another language (the constructed).

According to Six Sigma Quality is the number of defects of an implementation of the specification of the software.

Another view on Quality is called Fitness for Use. It is this case Quality is “what the Customer wants” or “What the Customer is willing to pay for“.

If you look carefully at all the Views on Quality, the Four World Views of Will McWhinney appear.

Six Sigma is the Sensory View on Quality (Facts), ISO is the Unity View on Software (Procedures, Laws, Rules) and Fitness for Use is the Social View on Quality (Stakeholders).

The last worldview of McWhinney, the Mythic, the View of the Artist, is represented by the Aesthetical view on Quality. Something is of high quality when it is Beautiful.

The Four Perspectives of McWhinney look at something we name “Quality”. We can specify the concept “Quality” by combining the Four definitions or we can try to find out what is behind “the Four Views on Quality”.

The Architect Christopher Alexander wrote many books about Quality. Interesting enough he named the “Quality” behind the Four Perspectives the “Quality without a Name“. Later in his life he defined this Quality, the “Force of Life“.

What Happened?

In the beginning of software-development the Artists, the Mythics, created software. Creating high quality software was a craft and a real challenge. To create, a programmer had to overcome a high resistance.

The “creative” programmers solved many problems and shared their solutions. Software-development changed from an Art into a Practice. The Many Different Practices were Standardized and United into one Method. The Method made it possible for many people to “learn the trade of programming”.

When an Art turns into a Method, the Aesthetic, the Quality that Has No Name, Life Itself, disappears. The Controller, Quality Management (ISO), has tried to solve this problem and has given many names to the Quality without a Name. Many Aspects of Software Quality are now standardized and programmed into software.

But…

It is impossible to Program the Social Emotions and the Mythic Imagination.

So…………

Software developers don’t use Methods and Standards because deep within they are Artists. The big difference is that they don’t solve their own problems anymore. They solve the problems of the users that are interviewed by the designers.

And…..

The Users don’t want the Designers to tell the Programmers to create something they want to create themselves (the Not-Invented Here Syndrome). They also don’t know what the programmers, instructed by the designers will create, so they wait until the programmers are finished and tell them that they want something else.

What Went Wrong?

The first Computer, the Analytical Engine of Charles Babbage, contained four parts called the Mill (the Central Processing Unit, the Operating System), the Store (the database), the Reader, and the Printer. The Analytical Engine and his successors were based on the Concept of the Factory.

In a Factory the Users, the Workers, The Slaves, have to do what the Masters, the Programmers, tell them to do.The Scientists modeled successful programmers but they forgot to model one thing, the Context. At the time the old fashioned programming artists were active, software was made to support the programmer himself. The programmer was the User of his Own software-program.

At this moment the Factory is an “old-fashioned” concept. In the Fifties the Slaves started to transform into Individuals but the Factory-Computer and the Practices of the Old Fashioned Programmers were not abandoned.

To cope with the rising power of the Individual the old methods were adopted but the old paradigm of the Slave was not removed. The Slave became a Stakeholder but his main role is to act Emotionally. He has the power to “Like or to Dislike” or “To Buy or not to Buy”.

The big Mistake was to believe that it is possible to program Individuals.

What To Do?

The Four Worldviews of Quality Move Around Life Itself.

According to Mikhail Bakhtin Life Itself is destroyed by the Process of Coding (“A code is a deliberately established, killed context“).

When you want to make software you have to keep Life Alive.

The Paradigm-Shift you have to make is not very difficult. Individual Programmers want to make Software for Themselves so Individual Users want to Do the Same!

At this moment the Computer is not a tool to manage a factory anymore. It has become a Personal tool.

It is not very difficult to give individuals that Play the Role of Employee tools to Solve their own Problems.

When they have solved their own problems they will Share the Solutions with other users.

If this happens their activities will change from an Individual Act of Creation into a Shared Practice.

If People Share their Problems and Solutions, their Joy and their Sorrow, they Experience the Spirit,  the Force of Life, the Quality that has no Name.

LINKS

How to Analyze a Context

About the Human Measure

About the Autistic Computer

About the Worldviews of Will McWhinney

About Christopher Alexander

About Computer Languages

About Mikhail Bahtin

About Ontologies

About Model Driven Software Development

About the Illusion of Cooperation

About the Analytic Engine of Charles Babbage

About the Analytic Engine of Thomas Fowler

About Human Scale Tools

About Old-Fashioned Programming

About the Human Measure

A few years ago (2003) somebody asked me to address the Dutch IT Architecture Congress. The subject was the Human Measure. To understand the Human Measure you have understand the relationship between the Human Being and The Human Measure System, The Emotions.

At that time I was already highly influenced by Will McWhinney so I used his model of the Four Worldviews to describe the Human. Later I discovered a Fifth Worldview (Consciousness) that was hidden in his teachings.

The consciousness is the monitor of the Whole of the Human Being. It reflects about the behavior of the parts and takes action when the Whole is not in Balance (Stressed).

According to Will McWhinney the Human can be described by The Emotions (Values), The Imagination (Ideas), The Senses (Desire, Facts) and the Expectation (Control, Rules).

The Four parts can be combined in six (or twelve = 4x3x2) Games. A Game is a strategy to solve the Conflict between the Four Independent Parts.

To me it is very clear that IT is focused on the combination Expectation/Senses. This combination is called the Analytical Game. It solves the Conflict between Facts and Rules. Will showed that this game was the dominating game in Western Culture.

In the Analytical Game the Emotions, the Consciousness and the Imagination are not important. In the Analytical Game you want to find the Absolute Truth, The Rules of the Game, by Analyzing the Facts sensed by the Eyes.

When you want to understand the Emotions you have to look at “emotional” Psychology. When you start to study “emotional” psychology the “box of Pandora” of Psychology opens up. Psychology is not a science like Mathematics or Physics. Everybody has his own theory about Emotions and everybody is defending his own “territory”. Psychology is simply a scientific mess.

One of the most helpful scientists (a friend of Will) was Rodney Cotterill. Cotteril analyzed the evolution of the Sensory-Motor System of every Organism on Earth. The Sensory-Motor System is an Interaction between the Emotions, the Motor, and the Senses.

The bacteria is drifting around, explores an inhomogeneous environment that contains all kinds of chemical structures. Some of these structures are destructive, some of them are neutral and some of them are attractive (food). When the bacteria finds (senses) food his rotator (the flagellum) moves the bacteria in a circular motion. The circular motion of the bacteria is preserved for a short time and this preservation could be called memory

The emotions are aimed at the survival of the human being. They Explore environments to find something that helps them to survive and Avoid destructive environments. When Humans have found an Attractive environment they Stay there and Store the data about the environment in their Memory. Humans are Moving Memories (E-motion means movement!).

According to Rodney Cotterill the Emotions are the basic structure, the infrastructure, of an organism. All the other structures are specializations of one of the parts (the Sensors, the Calculator (Imagination, Expectation)) of the Emotional Infrastructure.

IT is highly focused on Sensors and Calculators (the Senses and the Expectation). IT has no idea what to do with the Emotions, the E-Value-ator, the basic Measurement System of the Human Being. The main objective of the Evaluator is to find Food and to stay Alive.

The Human Imagination has created many “abstractions” of Food and Secure Environments. They are all stored in the Memory as Symbols and Metaphors but it is not difficult to define what Humans don’t like. They don’t like the same thing IT-experts don’t like. IT-experts want to be Valued. They don’t want to be Dominated. They demand the freedom to Express their Creativity. They don’t want to play a role in a Play that was Designed by somebody else.

IT-experts love to play the Analytical Game. In this Game the Humans, called the Users play the role of the Object, the reusable Module, that has to do its Job. In the Analytic Game Users don’t have Emotions and Imagination. They have to Eat the Food that grew out of The Seeds of the Imagination of the Architect.

What is the Human Measure?

The basic measure of the Human Being is related to everything that gives him or her a feeling, an Emotion, of Security. The Human Value-System, the Emotions, is always looking for Shelter, Protection and Love. Humans Beings need other Human Beings to tell and show them that they are Value-able.

If the Human Being has an Expectation this Expectation has to be realized in the near Future.

When the Emotions of the Human Being are Dominated it wants to move away from his environment because a dominating environment could be Destructive. When something or somebody is Dominating a Human Being he/she feels worthless.

If the Imagination of the Human Being experiences No Change, (Highly Repeating Actions) it wants to Explore a new Environment.

If the Senses experience Too Much Change the Human Being becomes Confused. When you are Confused your Expectation fails and the Human starts to drift around just like the bacteria.

If the Human Being is not Conscious (Aware, Focused) it is unable to Reflect. If the Human Being is not Aware he is unable to Balance the Emotions, the Imagination, The Expectation and the Senses. If there is no balance the Body becomes Stressed. A Stressed Body slowly kills the Immune System. An Unbalanced Immune System is the Cause of many Diseases.

What is IT Doing?

IT is still creating Dominating, Always Changing, Insecure and Confusing Software.

IT is not automating the repeating activities Humans don’t like. IT is producing highly disconnected software-systems.

IT is not helping the Humans to makes senses of the complexity of the Outside World. IT is increasing the Complexity of the Environment.

IT is not supporting the Human to explore its environment. IT is shielding the outside environment and is creating an artificial outside environment. Many people believe the Imaginary World is the Real World. The most destructive artificial worlds are the Destructive Computer Games. They give the Player the Believe that Killing People is no problem at all. The destructive Games are the Games of the Military. They kill people by looking at simulators and pushing buttons.

IT is Playing the Same Game using Different Terminology all the time. If you understand the transformation of the terminology the Game is Boring. If you don’t understand the terminology the Game is Confusing. If you Mix the Terminology the Game is too Complex to Play. Almost nobody knows the Rules so many People make mistakes, believe they win the Game but in reality lose the Game.

What to do?

Perhaps somebody is able to Invent a New Game.

I have an Idea.

Why don’t we create a Game that Creates Games? According to the Theory of Will this Game is called the Game of Culture. It solves the conflict between The Imagination (The Creator) and the Emotions (The Mover). When the Mover is Inspired by the Creator the Sensory/Motor-System starts to Act with Spirit (Imagination) and Soul (Emotions). In terms of Emotional Psychology: The Human becomes Highly Moti-vated!

If we look at the theory of Will we now can see that the Analytical Game is the Complement of the Game of Culture.

If we Unite the two Games, the Games of the West and the Games of the East, we are able to connect all the parts of the Human Being in a Cycle, the Cycle of Human Innovation.

LINKS

About the Human Measure