About the End of the Stock Market

The Amsterdam Stock Exchange was the first stock exchange to introduce continuous trade in the early 17th century. The Dutch pioneered short selling and every other “modern” instrument. Until the sixties Government and the Big Companies were controlled by about 200 Rich Dutch Families (including the Royal Family). They controlled Society and took care of Stability.

In the 17th century the Dutch East India Company (VOC) was introduced by the Dutch Government. The VOC was the first multinational in the world and the first company to issue stock. It was the first mega corporation possessing quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, negotiate treaties, coin money, and establish colonies.

In the 17th century about 200 families, the so called Regenten, were in control of the Netherlands. The families promoted their members in every influential position available.

The Democracy of the Netherlands was in reality an Oligarchy. The “oligarchic way” of decision making, the Dutch Polder Model, is still the most important way to reach consensus in the Netherlands. Everything happens “behind closed doors”.

Until 1917 only the Rich people were allowed to Vote. The Rich Voted with their Money. In the beginning of the 20th century (1917) the universal suffrage for male citizens was introduced in the Netherlands. Two years later (1919) the female part of the country followed.

The Rich not only voted with their money they were also the most important owners of the Stocks. With the power of their stock and their money they helped their families to acquire important positions in the State and the Companies.

Until the Sixties the Rich maintained a very powerful social network based on reciprocity in the Netherlands. This network was not a local network. It was an international network. The influential Dutch Families were connected to comparable networks all over the world.

Around the Seventies the power of the Rich Families went down. They lost their influence in Parliament and in the Companies. The Flower Power Generation took over the Power at every Level of Society. After some time most of them lost their Ideals of Peace and Harmony.

They started to buy houses and shares and were helped by the Rising of the Economic Kondratiev Cycle. In contrary to the Regenten the Baby Boomers acted on their own. They were very Individualistic and never created a Social Network that could support Society.

Around 2000 the stock market started to vibrate and to go down. The same happened in politics. Many voters are now moving from party to party.

Who is controlling Society?

At this moment nobody is controlling Society. Society is taking its own course.

Who is controlling the Stock Market?

At this moment nobody is controlling the Stock Market. The Stock Market is taking its own course.

Not only the Stock Exchange but also the Political System and the Weather System are taking their own course.

Is there and end to this all?

I don’t think so.

Why?

We have entered the Downfall of the Kondratiev Cycle. During this Downfall the Old Institutions are destroyed and New Institutions take over the Power. We are in an “In Between State”. In this state everything is On the Move. Everything is Moving Up & Down, Left & Right. What many people don’t see that even the Center is Moving. The State and the Stock Exchange are not able to cope with the excessive amount of Movement.

What will happen at the End of the big Shake Up?

There are two possibilities. The first one is the return to an old center.  My guess is that we will move back to the State of the Renaissance.

The second possibility is “frightening” for many people. We will jump to an unknown state predicted by many Old Civilizations called the Fifth World or the Golden Age.

The Hopis call our time the “The Fourth Age of Man”. According to them the Earth has been wiped clean 3 times already. First by Fire, next by Ice, most recently by the great Flood approximately 11,000-12,000 years ago. We are now entering the last stage of the Fourth Age called “The great day of Purification“. This stage culminates either in total Rebirth or total Annihilation.

The Degree of Violence will be determined by the Degree of Inequity caused among the peoples of the world and in the Balance of Nature. In this crisis Rich and Poor will be forced to struggle as Equals in order to Survive. The beginning of the Fifth World will be heralded by the arrival of a being known as Pahana, or the lost “White Brother“.

If we believe the Prophecy of the Hopi and many other “Spiritual Movements (Gnostics, Sufi’s)” the only way that will save us from total annihilation is the Creation of Balance. We don’t have much time left. The Great day of Purification will happen at the End of 2012. At that time the “Lost White Brother” (The Center) will return.

Is it possible to Balance the Financial System?

 Yes, I think so.

The only thing we have to do is to Unite Shareholders, Customers and Workers and give them an Equal Share in a Company. They have to Share the Power, the Profit or Loss, the Spirit and the Soul. They have to become Enthousiastic about What is Happening (Spirit).

They have to take care of Nature and the Other (Soul). If we do this we will recreate the Social Power Network of the Rich on a Different Scale (Earth) with other Participants. If we Help the Other we don’t need a Pension!

I am sure You want to put Your Savings into a Shared Enterprise. I am also sure that You will Never Regain the Money you will invest in Shares at the Stock Exchange. The Era of the Stock Exchange is Gone for Ever.

Why I have Decided to Leave ABN AMRO

I am a customer of ABN AMRO for more than 40 years. Last Friday I received a letter from ABN AMRO. They told me that the local branch office of ABN AMRO will be closed and integrated into a local branch office of Fortis.

 One day later negotiations started to save Fortis from bankruptcy. Today I read that ABN AMRO has to be sold to another bank. This will not solve the problem at all. It will speed up the Process of Desintegration of the Banking Industry that has started ten years ago.

 Just one year ago I wrote three blogs about the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO. Based on my own experience with the Merger of ABN and AMRO I predicted a possible failure of this merger. I predicted a possible failure because I did not believe the Technical Infrastructure and the Culture of both banks could be easily matched. I was Right. The Credit Crunch was the Cause of the Downfall but the Culture and the IT-Systems were the real reason. The Aim of Management was to make Big Deals (to get Big Bonusses) and the Systems were unable to provide the Right Data.

I have been working in the Money Market for a long time. In my opinion the biggest problem in the Banking Industry is the relationship between the Accountable, Bookkeeping, Systems and the Activities of Dealers. A small part of the Dealers are and were taking Enormous Risks by creating very complicated financial constructions (Derivatives). The Auditors (and the Management) of Banks have lost Oversight a very long time ago. This problem increases in severity when banks are merged.

Every time when a New Technology is implemented the Quality of the ICT-systems deteriorates. This has happened so many times that nobody really understands what the IT-Systems are really doing. Every time when a merger is accomplished the financial data of a bank (or other company) deteriorate. Two of more deteriorated systems are connected creating a bigger mess. Every time when a merger is accomplished the people who have an understanding of the ICT-systems know less about the Systems.

When a Merger takes place the motivated and skillful employees leave the “sinking ship”. The people that remain become “apathic”. They perform their duty in a “nine to five”-mode. Innovation stops. External advisory companies (or worse) outside outsourcing companies take over the maintenance and the development of the software. The quality of the software deteriorates again. The problem increases when packages or software layers are implemented. This happened in every bank around the world.

When I worked with ABN AMRO the biggest mess in IT was always created in the US. The main reason was the “opportunistic” attitude of the Management or the entrepeneurs attitude of the Management. They experimented with everything they could find but never finished anything. The US Financial System was far behind the Dutch Financial System in terms of Products and Supervision. Everybody believed the US was the most innovative in everything but they were certainly not the most advanced in Banking and IT.

 ABN AMRO was one of the bad performers in the Consumer Banking Industry in the Netherlands. The personnel of the Bank were not motivated for a long time. The main reason was the Management. Everything was decided at the top in big Staff Departments. The Branches were forced to implement what they had designed.

 The Management of the Bank loved to do Big Deals with Big Companies. ABN and AMRO were Deal-Making companies and were forced to move into the Consumer Market when the employees of all the companies in the Netherlands were forced to open bank-accounts. The Customer was never priority number one.

The decision structure of the Bank was highly complex and changed all the time. Employees at the branches were not allowed to take initiative. When they had taken initiative it took a long time before the decision was made. Most of the time the answer was negative.

The forced merger with Fortis decreased the motivation of the employees. It increased the complexity of the IT-Systems and the decision structure.

Fortis needed money and many parts were sold to other banks. Every time the Organization and the ICT-systems of the bank had to be divided in many parts. Before this process was even settled a new split was announced. This process was repeated until today.

The Consumer Banking Division of ABN AMRO, the “beautiful pearl” Fortis was after, was carefully protected. The integration of this part with Fortis proceeded. Many people moved to Brussels to create and implement a plan. Many outside advisors earned a lot of money again. Nobody had any oversight. A few weeks ago somebody finally decided to merge the branch-offices. They created new organization structures, appointed new managers, talked with the employees and send an announcement to their customers. This announcement was received last Friday! Two days later all the projects have been stopped and the employees of Fortis are leaving ABN AMRO. Nobody knows what to do!

The financial people were constantly trying to understand what the Risks were. Everytime a new problem arose and the Board had to take action. The message to the outside world changed all the time and the investors lost their faith in Fortis. The End of the (Credit) Line was reached last Friday!

A few days ago somebody decided ABN AMRO had to be sold to another bank to create enough cash to pay the current debts. The process of integration has to be reversed and a new process of integration has to be started with another Bank.You don’t have to be an expert to understand what will happen. The end of this process will be Total Chaos.

I am not afraid I will lose my Savings. The Government will take care.

I am not afraid to lose my shares. I have sold them a long time ago.

I am not afraid the bookkeeping systems of the Bank will finally break down and ABN AMRO will deny I am a Customer or present completely different data about my savings-account.

I am sure many things will go wrong. During my time as a customer of ABN AMRO the amount of mistakes that were made increased. Most of the mistakes were small but some of them really cost me a lot of time and money.

I am afraid  nobody will be able to help me when things go wrong. I just want a little bit of Service. Nothing More. I have decided to leave ABN AMRO. I am moving to RABO-bank.

I hope they will not buy ABN AMRO or merge with another bank. If this happens I have to find another Bank but I really don’t know where to go. At that time I probably have to buy Gold or another Object that keeps its value a long time ago. I really don’t know what will be valuable in the future.

Perhaps I have to start a farm and grow my own food at a place that will not be affected by the rising of the sea-level or big tornado’s or big earthquakes or heavy rain or intense drought or intense cold when the Ice-Age starts.

LINKS

 About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Culture)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Software)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (The Bank of the Heart)

About the Crisis in IT (About Software Layers)

About the Crisis in IT (About Outsourcing)

 About the Crisis in IT (About ERP Packages)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Avalanches)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Fraud)

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Very Strange Way to Explain the Current Crisis

I wrote and thought a lot about Time and Time Travel. My investigations made it clear to me that Time Travel must be possible and is also happening. Most people are not aware of the Cyclic Patterns of Time.

They think Time is a Line extending into Infinity. The Cyclic Patterns are moving With the Clock and Counter the Clock. At this moment The Cycles are Reversing in Time. This explains the current Crisis.

The conclusion of my research in Time was that we are traveling through a Vibrating Static Structure, A Fluent Crystal, which contains a huge amount of possible paths. We have Free Choice to travel the many Paths but the Amount of Possible Choices is fixed.

When we are traveling and return at the same point we started our traveling, we have gone through a Cycle.

When you go to work in the morning and return at home in the evening and repeat this sequence day after day you are moving through a very simple cycle. When you Repeat the Same Mistakes all the Time you are moving through a Cycle. When you are Born and Die you are moving through a Cycle called Life.

Cycles can be very complex. They are sometimes so complex that you are not aware you are repeating the same pattern all the time. You are experiencing the Feeling of Freedom of Choice because you are not Observing Your Path.

When you are Capable of Observing Your Path the Cyclic Behavior Ends. You Watch the Cycle but you are not In the Cycle. You are freed from the Cycle when you don’t make a Choice at all. This is what the Chinese Masters call the Tao.

Cycles basically move in two directions. They move With the Clock and Counter the Clock. Our Clocks move With the Clock so we assume that Time is moving With the Clock. When we move Counter the Clock we are moving Back in Time.

Cycles With the Clock, are Positive, Generating, Cycles.

Cycles Counter the Clock , are Negative, Destructive, Cycles.

The direction of a rotation is called Spin.

If we combine two Cycles that are moving With AND Counter the Clock an interesting structure appears. This Structure is called the Moebius Ring and is often used to represent the Symbol of Infinity, the Lemniscate or Ourobouros (A Snake).

The Moebius Ring is a very interesting structure because it does not have an Above and an Under. When you are traveling the Boundary you are always traveling the Same Surface. The Moebius Ring is easily constructed by connecting the two ends of a strip of twisted paper.

To Change the Direction of a Cycle you have to introduce a Twist.

To Travel Time you to have to Twist Time.

The Twist is an interesting concept. One of the Questions you could ask is if You would experience a Twist when it happened. The answer is Yes and No. Yes, when the Twist is an Up or Down Peak (An Event). No, when the Twist is a smooth path.

The most interesting Peak Experience in Life is Death. At that time the Cycle of Life is closed and another Cycle with a different Spin starts. Many cultures believe the Cycle of Death is real. In Western Society many people believe the Cycle of Death is non existent. Scientists are spending a lot of time to prove that the moment of Death is the End of Everything.

History is moving through Cycles. At some point in time many people feel History is Repeating Itself. Most of the time people believe the Cycles are moving into a certain direction. They are moving UP and DOWN. When you look at the Economic Cycles the data show that the Economic Cycles are Moving UP.

In reality the UP Cycle behind the Economic Cycle is another Cycle that is in its UP-state. Behind this Cycle is another (Long-Term) Cycle and another Cycle and …but somewhere the Cycle of Cycles (A Spiral) is Closed in Itself (A Spiraling Spiral). Just like the Moebius Ring there is no Above and Under. We are (Time-)traveling a Boundary that is closed in itself.

I don’t think many people will disagree with the concept of Cycles in History. The Theory of Economic Cycles has proven itself without any Doubt.

I don’t think many people understand that Cycles are moving in two directions. They believe the Cycles are moving With the Clock. If you believe Cycles move With the Clock it is easy to see that the Seasons are a beautiful Metaphor to understand Cyclic Behavior.

But what will happen when the Cycles of History move Counter the Clock???

If we would move through time Counter the Clock History would repeat itself just like History is Repeating Itself when we move With the Clock but the Stages of the Cycle (The Seasons) would show themselves in a Different Order.

If the Cycle With the Clock is an UP Cycle, the Cycle Counter the Clock would be a Down Cycle.

If you read the references in this Blog you will see that Western Culture is (or was) moving Counter The Clock, a CYCLE of DESTRUCTION.

The Cycle of Destruction (Capitalism, Materialism) was seen as a positive Cycle by many People but now they are becoming Aware of Reality. Western Culture is destructing Nature. It is not only destructing Nature but it is also destructing Human Culture.

At a certain point in time the Cycle HAS TO REVERSE. This TWIST is a Peak Experience, a Major Crisis. I hope You now See what is really Happening. We are Reversing the Cycle and the new Cycle is a GENERATING CYCLE. We are really Moving UP into a new state of Consciousnesa. This new state is not the state people who love materialism and capitalism (and War and Destruction and Greed and Control and Desire and …) will like.

LINKS

About The Twist in History

 About the Twist in Literature

About Cyclic Behavior in History

About Cyclic Behavior in History

Using the Seasons to Understand Cycles

 

What is Happening in the Financial System

The current Foundation of the World Financial System, the US Economy based on the Dollar, is in a Fatal Crisis. The Solution to the Current Crisis, Bailing Out, will finally Speed Up the Crisis. The real problem is moved to the Near Future, to another Level of Society (MiddleClass, the Poor) and to another part of the World. In the End it will fireback on the US itself and deepen the Recession that is already taking place.

Money represents a Value of Something. For a very long time money was based on the value of Gold. This foundation failed. The failure of the Gold Based Money system created the Great Depression and finally the Second World War. At this moment the Financial System is without any Foundation.

To prevent a Third World War the Bretton Woods Agreement was created in 1947. The foundation of the International Money System was based on the Dollar. In 1971 the US broke up the Agreement because it was unable to stabilize the International System. At that time the US was spending too much money to fight the war in Vietnam. It became a Debtor and remained a Debtor until today.

From that Time on the International Money System is Floating but the Foundation, the Dollar, is still used. The Euro is an alternative but it is almost impossible to move to the Euro without destroying the US Economy and the World Economy. Europe, China and even Russia are Forced to help the Biggest Debtor in the World to avoid the destruction of their own Financial System. In the mean time the Biggest Debtor in the World keeps on Spending. It is even Increasing its Spending Behavior.

Many people believe that the reason behind the Financial Crisis is the Credit Crunch. They believe mortgages are the cause of everything but the reason is much more complicated. The main reason are financial derivatives.

Derivatives are very complicated ways to gamble with money. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to calculate the value of these financial instruments. They are so complicated that almost nobody is able to keep the books. The controllers of the banks lost the control a very long time ago.

 

Derivatives are the playingfield of dealers and the dealers are able to confuse almost everybody when they want to play their game. The effect of playing dealers has shown itself in many cases like the falldown of Barings. The Derivatives have transformed The Banking Industry into a Casino.

The US Government and its Allies are trying to avoid a new Great Depression by bailing out or protecting every US Bank, Insurance Company and other Company (Farmers, Chrysler, Boeing, Ford, ..) that is unable to pay its debts. The US Government is moving the huge and uncertain debt from the Market to the Government hoping the Market will Restore itself. They believe the Market is going Up and Down. Someday they will be able to Sell the current Debt with a Profit back to the Market.

The strange thing is that other countries are helping the US to protect their vital companies from a certain disaster. The US, the Protector of the Free Market, is protecting its Own market and the only reason why others are helping the US is to avoid a certain disaster on the level of the World. Strangely enough they are disturbing their own market to avoid the destruction of the market of their biggest competitor.

In the background investors, Countries and Companies are slowly moving out of the US Economy. The are investing in Europa (Warren Buffett) or are creating their own financial market and currency (China, Russia, India).Nobody believes the US will recover but they have to prevent a total meltdown.

China is even taking over control of the US Economy. With their enormouss funds they will be alble to “blackmail” the US. They are already doing this. The Chinese are in contrary to the US fighting the war with the Wapens of their Opponent. They know how to win without fighting.

What many peopl don’t realize is that the long term Economic Cycle (The Kondratiev) is going Down for about 26 years. We have entered a State of Compression in 2000. The Expansion of the World Economy during the last 26 years has stopped. We are just in the beginning of the Phase of Compression.

During the phase of compression the Baby Boomers will stop working. They have invested a lot of money to buy a pension. During the compression their pensions will evaporate. During the phase of compression many people will get old and ill. The Social System will be without any money to help them. Many people will move into a very angry state when they realize what really has happened.

During the Downfall The Debts will increase tremendously. The move from the Market to the Government (and the Tax Payer) is a temporary solution. Someday the Debts have to be repayed and the only thing US Govenment can do is to accept the fact that the US and the strongly related Western Economy will enter a state of Recession.

The Economic Activity will go Down but Social Activities will Move Up. When you are losing money somebody (Your Friends, Your Family, Your Community) has to help you.

What many people also don’t realize is that the very long time cycles are supporting the DownFall of the Economic System. The very long time cycles and especially the Cycle of the Precession is Jumping to a new Level. It is jumping to a higher level of Consciousness.

The current instability of the World System is not only visible in the Financial System. It shows itself in every System of the World. It shows itself in the Psychological System, the Cultural System, The Religiouss System, the Political System, the Ecological System, the Weather System and the Planetary System.

These Systems are highly interconnected. A Disaster in one of the Systems has an impact on all of the other Systems. When the Financial System is fixed, a Political Conflict (Russia) starts and the Financial System is unbalanced. When the Political System is stabilized a huge Earthquake or a giant Tornado will move the total System into unbalance. This will go on and on until everybody realizes that we are living in a Highly Interconnected Reality.

The only thing we can do is to act on the Level of Earth and Face Reality. We have to realize that all the Isolated Systems are One and the only thing we can do is to find Balance on Every Level.

We could start to Find Balance on the Level of the Human.

We could start to Reduce the Power of the Ego, Desire, by reducing our Needs.

We could start to Reduce the Power of our Expectation, our Thinking, and start to Trust the Other.

We could start to Empower our Imagination, Spirit, and Imagine a Shared Future.

We could start to Empower our Soul, Empathy, and start to Take Care of Others.

We could start to use our Consciousness and become Aware of what is really Happening.

Many people believe the current crisis will be a Fatal Crisis, a (Financial) Apocalyps. I don’t believe this will be the case.

Imagine a world were you are not Working all the time. Imagine a Life without Stress.

Imagine a World where You don’t have to Play Political Games to Survive.

Imagine a world where You could enjoy Nature.

Imagine a World were You are able to Help without Being Payd.

Imagine a World were you are able to Create when You want to do this. Imagine a World without War and Violence. The only thing You have to do is Leave a Little Bit of Your Current Luxury behind.

If this happens the Downfall of the Bad Buck would be replaced by a tremendous Rise of Good Luck.

LINKS

How the Great Depression was created

About Derivatives, Accountants, Greed and other terrible problems in the Banking Industry

 

 

How the Proof of the Pudding is Really in the Eating

When you want to know the truth you are looking for facts. This seems very evident but Philosophy and especially the field of Epistemology has spend a lot of time to find out if this Statement about Truth is really True.

The first step is to look up the definition of the word “fact“. We use Wordnet to do this. WordNet is a semantic lexicon for the English Language. The database contains about 150,000 words.

Fact: A piece of information about circumstances that exist or events that have occurred.
Fact: A statement or assertion of verified information about something that is the case or has happened.
Fact: An event known to have happened or something known to have existed.
Fact: A concept whose truth can be proved.

The meaning of words changes in history. If you want to know how the meaning is changed you have to look up the Etymology of the word.

Fact: 1539, “action” especially “evil deed,” from L. factum “event, occurrence,” lit. “thing done,” from neut. pp. of facere “to do”. Usual modern sense of “thing known to be true” appeared 1632, from notion of “something that has actually occurred.”

When we combine the result of both dictionaries we see that the original meaning of the word “Fact” is-related to the word “Event”. Later around 1632 it changed into a concept “whose truth can be proved”.

To find more about the meaning of the word Event we can look for all the occurrences of this word in the sentences of English language. One of the scientists who spend a lot of time researching the meaning of the word “Event” is George Lakoff. He defined The Event Structure Metaphor.

A Metaphor Is-A Mapping. A Mapping Is-A Relation between two Domains, the Source and the Target.

The Event Structure Metaphor is one of the most widespread of all the conceptual metaphors in the world. It maps from the source domain of Space to the target domain of Events, and leads to the following concepts:

A State Is-A Location (a bounded region in space).
A Change Is-A Movement (into or out of bounded region).
A Cause Is-A Force.
An Action Is-A Self-Propelled Movement.
A Purpose Is-A Destination.
A Mean Is-A Path to destinations.
A Difficulty Is-A Blockage.
Expected Progress Is-A Travel Schedule.
A Schedule Is-A Virtual Traveler, who reaches pre-arranged destinations at pre-arranged times.
An External Event Is-A Large Moving Object.
A Long-term, purposeful activity Is-A Journey
.

An Event Is-A Blockage that prevents us to Move from One Destination to an other Destination in the Journey called Life. To Move from one Destination to an other Destination we are Propelling our Self. Sometimes we are propelled By something else, An External Event. If this Happens it feels like we are hit by a Large Moving Object.

When we are Hit by an External Event “things get out of hand” or “we are not able to keep a tight rein on the situation” or “we are not going with the flow” or “things take a turn for the worse“.

A Fact is an Event that Causes the Emotion of Frustration (Anger, Irritation, Sadness, Worry,..). An Event Forces us to Move Away from our Original Route, the Path that leads us to the Destination that we wanted to Reach in Life. We have to take a Detour.

What happened around 1632?

Around 1632 Francis Bacon advocated a new method for achieving knowledge, based on careful observation and eliminative induction. Bacon warned that effective reasoning must be freed from the “idolatrous” influence of human nature (Emotions & Imagination).

Francis Bacon started The Age of Enlightenment. The Enlightenment advocated reason as a means to establishing an authoritative philosophical system which would allow human beings to obtain objective truth about the whole of reality. Much later Emmual Kant dedicated his Critique of Pure Reason to Francis Bacon.

What happened?

Facts were moved from the Emotions (Judgement, Opinion) to the Level of the Mind (Truth). With the help of Logic it would be possible to Prove Everything.

According to Aristotle there are four types of truth: universal affirmatives take the form: All S are P, universal negations take the form: No S are P, particular affirmatives take the form: Some S are P, particular negations take the form: Some S are not P. Later so called contingent truths were added. They are dependent on the situation/context.

The Quest for the Eternal Logical Truth is still going on. Many very bright minds have tried to find a solution but the terrible thing is that the Truth of a logical proposition is entirely dependent on the Truth of the Facts that are put into the Proposition. We are again in a State of Infinite Regress.

One of these bright minds was Frank Plumpton Ramsey (1903-1930). Ramsey lived and worked in Cambridge and was befriended with Bertrand Russell, G. E. Moore, J. M. Keynes and Ludwig Wittgenstein. Ramsey created a theory called Pragmatism.

In his paper ‘Truth and Probability’, written in 1926, Ramsey shows that if people in their behaviour obey a set of axioms or rules, the measure of our ‘degrees of belief’ will satisfy the laws of probability. The Truth is highly related to Judgment and “if we have analysed judgment we have solved the problem of truth“.

“..it is, for instance, possible to say that a chicken believes a certain sort of caterpillar to be poisonous, and mean by that merely that it abstains from eating such caterpillars on account of unpleasant experiences connected with them. … An exact analysis of this relation would be very difficult, but it might well be held that in regard to this kind of belief the pragmatist view was correct, i.e. that the relation between the chicken’s behaviour and the objective factors was that the actions were such as to be useful if, and only if, the caterpillars were actually poisonous. Thus any set of actions for whose utility p is a necessary and sufficient condition might be called a belief that p, and so would be true if p, i.e., if they are useful“.

What Ramsey is telling is that “the proof of the pudding is in the eating“.

What happened?

We are finally back to square one! After about 400 years of Enlightment we have to admit that the only way to find the Truth is to find out if what we Think is true is really True. We don’t have to use very complicated reasoning to prove what we are already experiencing in the Real World.

LINKS

About the Age of Reason

About Pragmatism and Ramsay

About Truth

About The End of the Dollar

A well-known scientist once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the center of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: “What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise” The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, “What is the tortoise standing on?” “You’re very clever, young man, very clever,” said the old lady. “But it’s turtles all the way down!”

The Financial System of the World is a special version of “Turtles all the way down“. At this moment one of the pillars of the US Financial System (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) is falling and many people hope it will be supported by a financial pillar, the US Government. The two pillars have financed 5.2 trillion dollars of mortgages (5.200.000.000.000).

Since 1970, the US Federal Government has run deficits for all but four years (1998-2001) adding to a total debt of 9.5 trillion of dollars (9.500.000.000.000). If you include entitlements such as Social Securityand Medicare the debt is $53 trillion—or $175,000 for every American—andrising.

A huge part of the debt is held by two pillars, the central banks of Japan and China. The Central Banks of China and Japan are slowly moving out of the Dollar. This pillar is falling also.

The Citizens of the US are the only turtles that are left. The US Government could raise taxes, reduce its spending or raise the interest rate. In all the cases the US Economy would fall into a recession. They are unable to do this. The US voters will never elect an American President who is raising taxes or will move its country into a recession. They will always vote for the Big Spender.

Below the last pillar is Emptyness, the Abyss, The Underworld, Hell. The Universe is floating in Nothingness. The Universe is floating because it is moving. Movement is the essence of the Universe.

The problem of Turtles all the Way Down (Infinite Regress) can be solved in a Circular, Rotating, Cyclic model. In a Circular model there is No cause and there is no End. Every point is a Beginning and an End. Every Cause comes back on Itself. In the End the US has to solve its own problems and the only way to solve its problems is to accept a Recession.

The US Financial System has generated a debt for more than 30 years. They were supported by other countries to expand their economy. These countries needed the US as a buyer of their products. They also needed the US to copy their Technology and their Science.

At this moment the Economic Activity in the World is moving to the East. The countries that supported the US the most, Japan and China, are now creating their own Cycle and their own market. This cycle is completed by the addition of India and Russia. In due time they don’t need the US Market, the US Technology and US Science anymore. The US has given them all the opportunities by Outsourcing many of their activities.

Japan and China are becoming friends again and they have their finger on the trigger of the financial gun. When they move into another currency or create their own currency the US financial system dies immedeatly. They don’t need a war to win the war.

Why We Need a Recession to Move to a Social Society

In the Netherlands there is a discussion going on about a possible shortage of working power. In the near future there will be an abundance of old people (the baby-boomers) and a shortage of young people. The strange thing is that there are really enough people available to do what is needed but they are not qualified to do the job.

Everybody has to work. Parents with young children need external help to take care of their children. To make this possible the government is giving parents a tax benefit. To get this benefit the parents have to use an accredited childcare institution. The tax benefit created a huge demand for accredited child care. The huge demand created a shortage in certified experts. The booming childcare business has created a budget problem.

When I was young life was simple. Mothers took care of the children. Fathers went to work. Mothers were not paid to take care of the children.

When you move childcare from the “for free” to the “paid” zone of society you have to determine what an expert needs to know and what she or he has to do. You are formalizing childcare. Most of the people that are out of work are unable to acquire a certificate to work in the child-care business. The norms are too high.

You also need buildings, transport, managers, laws, law-enforcers, advisors, quality management systems, controllers, bookkeepers and many others things to create an institution. We are generating a higher level of activity in society than before.

When childcare was not formalized everybody was qualified to raise children. When the norms are formulated it becomes very clear that the people who were doing the task (the parents) can be divided into two groups the not-educated people and the educated people.

This starts a discussion about childcare in general. The end of the discussion is a new institution that is taking care of parents that are unable to raise children and the parents themselves. Again we are generating a higher level of activity in society than before.

What is really happening is a formalization of society. Society is moving from a stage where people were helping each other to a stage where you have to be paid to get help. Every interpersonal activity is changed into a transaction. When interpersonal activities are changed into a transaction people lose the feeling of responsibilty for the whole.

Transactional relationships are aimed at the short term. When you pay a person directly you don’t have to pay back in the future. Transactions destroy long-term reciprocity.

When you are rich you are able to pay for every thing. When you are poor you are unable to do this unless you are helped by others or by government. Government has to create laws and the laws contain conditions. When Government is paying you, you have to do something in return.

When you are out of work you have to do the work government is telling you to do. To work you always have to leave your house and go to another place. When you have to work you are unable to take care of your children.

The real problem is that we are too active in the formalized area of society. We are doing things that could be done in a more natural way. Taking care of others is a natural tendency of the human being. To do this we simply need more time.

To generate work we have created an immense not productive workforce in society, called the social services sector. A social service is really not social at all. It is a formalization of social activities. Social activities are managed by the emotions.

Formalized Emotions are very different from the Emotional Emotions. A formalized relationship is managed by a contract, procedures and norms. A social relationship is for free and is based on friendship and reciprocity.

When I was young life was simple. Children took care of their parents when they were old. The children were not paid to take care of their parents. Now their children are unable to help their parents and their parents are unable to help their children. Both are too busy or unable to help. Some of them are even not allowed to help because they have to stay busy in the formalized part of society.

The people who are unable to get a qualification are constantly trained by government. Many of them are unable to get a “usefull certificate“. Because they have to “work” they are not allowed to take care of their children. The care for their children is taken over by professionals paid by government.

The experts are getting a salary that is much higher than the unemployed ever could get. Perhaps the government could pay parents to take care of their own children and pay children to help their own parents.

I hope you see we are creating a spiralling loop and the end of the line is an imaginary disaster. It is an imaginary disaster because the problem is easily solved by reducing the amount of activities in society until people are able to help other people without being paid.

I hope you now understand why we need a recession. We need a recession to move to a more social society.

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