Tag: time

Why a Depression Takes Thirteen Years

On By konstapelIn CompletedLeave a comment

The start and the end of the current depression was predicted a very long time (1922) ago by Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle is an economic cycle which lasts between 50 to 60 years.

Kondratiev predicted that the current Depression will start in 2000 and end around 13 years later. Kondratiev used the Seasons to name the phases of his Cycle. We are now in the phase of the Kondratiev Winter.

Spring is marked by economic expansion. Savings are at fairly high levels, and interest rates are low. Stocks and real estate are the most successful investments.

Summer is marked by high inflation, high interest rates and by volatility. Commodities, gold, and real estate do well during the summer.

Autumn is the happiest phase of the Cycle. This phase started about 1982 and ended around 2000. During Autumn paper financial investments like stocks and bonds always do best. It is characterized by speculative bubbles or manias in stocks, bonds, real estate, and collectibles. On the other hand, gold, silver, and commodities collapse. Unfortunately, the Autumn is also marked by a serious decrease in savings, and a dangerous and reckless increase in debt. The imbalances build up to the point where they cannot continue. That’s where we are now.

When Winter arrives the insane excesses of the Autumn are purged and cleansed. The ultimate result is a deflationary recession or depression. Debt is repudiated. There is usually a banking crisis. Bankruptcies and foreclosures increase, as does social discontent. During the Kondratiev Winter, gold and cash are the best investments.

It is very strange that almost nobody believes the Kondratiev Cycle is a tool to predict the Economy. If people would have believed the Cycle it would be very simple to move through the Depression. In the UP-state you have to save money to sustain the DOWN-state. When you don’t do this the DOWN-state will bring you in to big trouble. At this moment the World has used almost all his resources. We have saved almost nothing to move through the deep recession.

In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. The US Government created a special institute the Foundation for the Study of Economic Cycles. The US Government never took the research of the Institute for granted or used it for another purpose (Financial Warfare?).

The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and Cycles are influenced by other Cycles. They are entrained. We are not talking about a single isolated Economic cycle. The Universe is an Integrated Harmonic System. The Universe is a Wave that generates Waves that generates Waves. At this moment Physicists believe this is the case (String Theory, Plasma Theory).

To me it is unbelievable that Economists like Milton Friedman called the ongoing statistical research of Dewey and many related Cycle theorists “not scientific“. To me it is also unbelievable that almost nobody takes even a look at the enormous amount of data that is gathered. I believe ignoring the scientific facts of the Cycles is not only stupid but also a crime. It is a crime because by constantly ignoring and pushing the cycles the whole harmonic system (including your Body, the Weather, Society, Earth) gets out of balance.

The Cycle of Kondratiev is a “long-term” cycle but there are cycles with a much longer periodicity (The Precession). The “short-term” cycles of the Kondratiev Ride The Wave of the Very long term cycles. If a very long term cycle moves down the Kondratiev also moves down much deeper and much faster.

This is happening and we are totally not prepared to cope with the new phases of the “dominant” long term cycles. The Harmonic System is preparing to Jump to a new State of Balance. This State has been given many names like Time Wave Zero (Terrence McKenna) and Point Omega (Teilhard de Chardin).

In the old age the Scientists who studied the cycles were called Astrologers. They have gathered a lot of data about the Cycles. Just like Milton Friedman we think Astrology is not scientific but many people just ignore that we are now equipped with much better tools and theories to explain what is happening. The old Astrologers did a spectacular job without computers, telescopes and a highly developed mathematics.

If you read the Predictions of the Old Astrologers like The Maya and The Magi you have to understand that they wrote in the language and the metaphors of their time but their message is the same message McKenna and other Cycle-Theorist want to tell.

LINKS

About the Kondratiev Wave

The Case for Cycles, R.Dewey

About the Cycle of the Climate

About the Cycle of History

About  the Cycle of the Seasons

About the Very Long Cycle Theory of Terrence McKenna

About the Transformation Phase of the Cycle

About Just-in-Time (JIT-)E-Learning

On By konstapelIn CompletedLeave a comment

Introduction

Four Communities that are “expansions” of one of the Four Worldviews in the Center. The worldviews of PoC are compatible with the Four Archetypes of Jung. The Four communities are connected by a Production- and a Consumption Cycle that move With- and Against the Clock. .
The PoC Learning Cycle.

The History of Education

The best way to define a tactic or a strategy is to look back to look forward. You have to understand history to understand the future.

When you realize that history is a cyclic process you are able to copy historic solutions and integrate them in the future infrastructure which is also a repetition of a historic infrastructure.

The Guild Learning from Practice

The current model of Education, the Factory, is outdated and will be replaced by the old model of the Guild now called a Community of Practice.

The learning cycle in Dutch.

Let’s have a look at the History of Education.

Education was and is mostly achieved by imitation. Humans are extremely qualified to copy the behavior of others.

Therefore the best way to learn a trade is to copy the behavior of a qualified craftsman by serving as an apprentice.

The development of writing and book printing made it possible to distribute practical knowledge (experience) to many people. Later the practical skills were abstracted into theoretical knowledge.

The education of theoretical knowledge (Philosophy, Law and Rhetoric) and the expansion of this knowledge was the task of the Universities. They educated a very small part of the population (the Elite).

The Factory School

Our current education system dates back to the Industrial Revolution.

At that time agricultural workers were needed to perform, repetitive, factory jobs.

The schools were organized as a production-line that produced high quality (tested) products that were assembled according to the specifications (the Curriculum) of the Factory-owners.

The School Factory-Model is still operating but the Factory-owners don’t need the workers anymore.

They are transformed into Robots.

Abstraction

The Factories moved up in abstraction.

To find a decent job workers also have to move up in abstraction.

Every time when the Factory Schooling System has adopted its curriculum the outside world has moved up again.

When a School moves up in abstraction it moves to another level in the Schooling Hierarchy.

The schools of lower education are not able to move up because they have to serve the children who are unable to abstract.

The distance between the lower and higher levels is growing with an increasing speed.

When we look at the Cycle of Education it is very clear that we have to reuse an old model in a new infrastructure to solve this problem.

Internet

This old model is apprenticeship.

What is the new infrastructure?

The new infrastructure is the Internet. So the new way to support apprentices is E-Learning.

The Internet can be seen in many ways but the most interesting way is the Social Perspective.

The Internet is a collaboration system.

The Masters (and the apprentices) were organized in (local) Guilds.

The Guilds took care of many things. They organized insurance, shared their secret practices and took care for the old. At this moment Guilds are called Communities of Practice.

E-Learning

What kind of E-Learning?

Just-in-time E-Learning.

Just-in-Rime E-Learning

What is Just-in-Time E-Learning?

Just-in-Time E-Learning is Learning when you are facing a problem.

Learning starts when your Expectation Fails.

When your Expectation Fails  you have to find a solution. When you are unable to find a solution you have already Searched for alternatives so you are open to hear the right answer (Problem Solving).

When you are open to hear the right answer you are Focused. When you are focused you are in the Right Mood to learn (Motivation).

When you finally have formulated the right question you know the right answer (Socratic Learning).

When you are an apprentice you ask Your Master to Help. When your master is unable to give the right answer the “computer” will provide you with the right answer (Help-Systems, Wiki).

Expert-Systems

How do you design a Just-in-Time E-Learning System?

You have to Interview the Masters to find out what their Expectation-Failures were.

When you transform the failures in rules you have created an Expert-System or a Diagnostic System.

An Example

Let’s have a look at the Future of Automobiles.

Over the last 30 years, the amount of computer-based technology – compared with mechanical systems – making up the average car has increased from nothing to more than 45 per cent.

This rise is showing no signs of slowing down.

To cope with this, the role of the mechanic has evolved from mechanical repair to one that is highly technological.

As technology continues to evolve, they must learn continuously to keep up with new developments.

Using highly specialized diagnostic equipment, technicians are able to monitor and diagnose key areas of a vehicle to ensure they are working correctly, from engines to exhaust emission levels.

Many provide automatic updates to technical manuals and access to manufacturers’ service information, keeping technicians up-to-date on new developments.

But it’s not just a simple process of plugging a car into a diagnostic unit.

If the wrong data is applied, serious damage could be done to a very expensive vehicle.

It is necessary to study Computer-Technology to Maintain a Car?

I don’t think so.

It is necessary to study Automotive-Technology to Maintain a Car?

I don’t think so. When you know how to operate the diagnostic tools you are able to fix a car.

Now we have reached the most interesting part.

When we combine Just-in-Time Learning with the Tools that are available to Diagnose a car we have created a highly effective Learning Environment.

When a mechanic diagnosis a car-failure he/she can ask a Question like

How (Is Motor working?),

Why (Is Motor producing Rotational Energy?),

What (is Motor?) or

What is Happening?.

Who is Developing Learning Environments in the Car Industry?

The developers of Educational Just-in-Time E-Learning Tools are not situated in the Factory School anymore.

The Educational Tools are developed by the Manufacturers of the Cars!

The Makers of the Tools you Use Are the Developers of the Educational Tools to work with the Tools. The only thing they have to is to make them Self-Explaining!

The Tools have to Understand Them Selves.

Do While Everybody Working:

It is possible to Maintain Your Own Car?

In a few years time this will be possible when you buy a new car.

At that moment the mechanics are only useful to maintain the old cars.

But it is not very difficult to develop a (Semantic) Model of an Old Cars also.

How Long will this Take?

The tools are already there the big problem (as usual) is the Schooling System Itself.

Will the Educational Factory Adopt itself to the new Situation?

No.

It is very difficult to Change Yourself.

What the Educational System needs is an Huge Expectation Failure.

What could this Failure Be?

The Government will stop funding the System.

Will that Ever Happen?

What the Government needs is a Huge Expectation Failure.

Will that Ever Happen?

It will happen when The Citizens will stop funding the Government.

Will that Ever Happen?

It will happen when most of the Citizins will be out of Work.

Will that ever Happen?

It will happen when You are able to Do Everything Your Self.

Will that ever Happen?

END_: Read ‘this Blog

LINKS

A video about car repair using augmented reality

About Expectation Failures (the theory of Roger Schank).

About Communities of Practice (in Dutch)

Why I have Decided to Leave ABN AMRO

On By konstapelIn Completed, Opinion6 Comments

I am a customer of ABN AMRO for more than 40 years. Last Friday I received a letter from ABN AMRO. They told me that the local branch office of ABN AMRO will be closed and integrated into a local branch office of Fortis.

 One day later negotiations started to save Fortis from bankruptcy. Today I read that ABN AMRO has to be sold to another bank. This will not solve the problem at all. It will speed up the Process of Desintegration of the Banking Industry that has started ten years ago.

 Just one year ago I wrote three blogs about the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO. Based on my own experience with the Merger of ABN and AMRO I predicted a possible failure of this merger. I predicted a possible failure because I did not believe the Technical Infrastructure and the Culture of both banks could be easily matched. I was Right. The Credit Crunch was the Cause of the Downfall but the Culture and the IT-Systems were the real reason. The Aim of Management was to make Big Deals (to get Big Bonusses) and the Systems were unable to provide the Right Data.

I have been working in the Money Market for a long time. In my opinion the biggest problem in the Banking Industry is the relationship between the Accountable, Bookkeeping, Systems and the Activities of Dealers. A small part of the Dealers are and were taking Enormous Risks by creating very complicated financial constructions (Derivatives). The Auditors (and the Management) of Banks have lost Oversight a very long time ago. This problem increases in severity when banks are merged.

Every time when a New Technology is implemented the Quality of the ICT-systems deteriorates. This has happened so many times that nobody really understands what the IT-Systems are really doing. Every time when a merger is accomplished the financial data of a bank (or other company) deteriorate. Two of more deteriorated systems are connected creating a bigger mess. Every time when a merger is accomplished the people who have an understanding of the ICT-systems know less about the Systems.

When a Merger takes place the motivated and skillful employees leave the “sinking ship”. The people that remain become “apathic”. They perform their duty in a “nine to five”-mode. Innovation stops. External advisory companies (or worse) outside outsourcing companies take over the maintenance and the development of the software. The quality of the software deteriorates again. The problem increases when packages or software layers are implemented. This happened in every bank around the world.

When I worked with ABN AMRO the biggest mess in IT was always created in the US. The main reason was the “opportunistic” attitude of the Management or the entrepeneurs attitude of the Management. They experimented with everything they could find but never finished anything. The US Financial System was far behind the Dutch Financial System in terms of Products and Supervision. Everybody believed the US was the most innovative in everything but they were certainly not the most advanced in Banking and IT.

 ABN AMRO was one of the bad performers in the Consumer Banking Industry in the Netherlands. The personnel of the Bank were not motivated for a long time. The main reason was the Management. Everything was decided at the top in big Staff Departments. The Branches were forced to implement what they had designed.

 The Management of the Bank loved to do Big Deals with Big Companies. ABN and AMRO were Deal-Making companies and were forced to move into the Consumer Market when the employees of all the companies in the Netherlands were forced to open bank-accounts. The Customer was never priority number one.

The decision structure of the Bank was highly complex and changed all the time. Employees at the branches were not allowed to take initiative. When they had taken initiative it took a long time before the decision was made. Most of the time the answer was negative.

The forced merger with Fortis decreased the motivation of the employees. It increased the complexity of the IT-Systems and the decision structure.

Fortis needed money and many parts were sold to other banks. Every time the Organization and the ICT-systems of the bank had to be divided in many parts. Before this process was even settled a new split was announced. This process was repeated until today.

The Consumer Banking Division of ABN AMRO, the “beautiful pearl” Fortis was after, was carefully protected. The integration of this part with Fortis proceeded. Many people moved to Brussels to create and implement a plan. Many outside advisors earned a lot of money again. Nobody had any oversight. A few weeks ago somebody finally decided to merge the branch-offices. They created new organization structures, appointed new managers, talked with the employees and send an announcement to their customers. This announcement was received last Friday! Two days later all the projects have been stopped and the employees of Fortis are leaving ABN AMRO. Nobody knows what to do!

The financial people were constantly trying to understand what the Risks were. Everytime a new problem arose and the Board had to take action. The message to the outside world changed all the time and the investors lost their faith in Fortis. The End of the (Credit) Line was reached last Friday!

A few days ago somebody decided ABN AMRO had to be sold to another bank to create enough cash to pay the current debts. The process of integration has to be reversed and a new process of integration has to be started with another Bank.You don’t have to be an expert to understand what will happen. The end of this process will be Total Chaos.

I am not afraid I will lose my Savings. The Government will take care.

I am not afraid to lose my shares. I have sold them a long time ago.

I am not afraid the bookkeeping systems of the Bank will finally break down and ABN AMRO will deny I am a Customer or present completely different data about my savings-account.

I am sure many things will go wrong. During my time as a customer of ABN AMRO the amount of mistakes that were made increased. Most of the mistakes were small but some of them really cost me a lot of time and money.

I am afraid  nobody will be able to help me when things go wrong. I just want a little bit of Service. Nothing More. I have decided to leave ABN AMRO. I am moving to RABO-bank.

I hope they will not buy ABN AMRO or merge with another bank. If this happens I have to find another Bank but I really don’t know where to go. At that time I probably have to buy Gold or another Object that keeps its value a long time ago. I really don’t know what will be valuable in the future.

Perhaps I have to start a farm and grow my own food at a place that will not be affected by the rising of the sea-level or big tornado’s or big earthquakes or heavy rain or intense drought or intense cold when the Ice-Age starts.

LINKS

 About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Culture)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (Software)

About the Merger of Fortis and ABN AMRO (The Bank of the Heart)

About the Crisis in IT (About Software Layers)

About the Crisis in IT (About Outsourcing)

 About the Crisis in IT (About ERP Packages)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Avalanches)

About the Crisis in the Banking Industry (Fraud)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why An Event is Not a Collision

On By konstapelIn CompletedLeave a comment

 

If you search the Internet with the phrase “What is an Event” nobody is able to give an answer. Most of the time an Event is simply “Something that Happens“. If we look at the Dutch Language an Event is called a “Gebeurtenis“. The Dutch verb “beuren” means “to bear“. In Dutch an Event is a Bearing.

Bear: O.E. beran “bear, bring, wear” (class IV strong verb; past tense bær, pp. boren), from P.Gmc. *beranan (cf. O.H.G. beran, O.N. bera, Goth. bairan “to carry”), from PIE root *bher- meaning both “give birth” (though only Eng. and Ger. strongly retain this sense, and Rus. has beremennaya “pregnant”) and “carry a burden, bring”. Many senses are from notion of “move onward by pressure.” O.E. past tense bær became M.E. bare; alternative bore began to appear c.1400, but bare remained the literary form till after 1600. Past participle distinction of borne for “carried” and born for “given birth” is 1775. Ball bearings “bear” the friction; bearing “way of carrying oneself” is in M.E.

Strangely enough an Event is related to the Birth of Something. An Event is Happening when Something is Set into Motion by Pressure (Tension). An Event is an Act of Creation.

Most of the time an Event is associated with a Very Short Duration, an Explosion. An Event can take much longer. An Event can take one second or thousands of years. A Movie is an Event. The Great Pyramid is an Event. The Earth is an Event. You are an Event.

An Event changes its Intensity all the time. A Concert has a Start and an Apotheosis. The Great Pyramid was almost forgotten but at this moment many books are written about the mysterious background. An Event is a Wave or a Vibration and every Event has its Unique Pattern.

An Event has a Bearing (the direction or path along which something moves or along which it lies), it moves into a certain direction. An Event extends and compresses in Space/Time (A Hurricane). An Event is Born, Expands, Compresses, Dies and Dissepears. It follows a Life-Cycle.

If an Event is a Vibration it can be described by a combination of Harmonics and Sub-Harmonics. Dependent on the type of Vibration an Event “dies out” (Damping, converges to a limit) or never stops.

When Events are Vibrations or Waves they are able to Add Up. When an Event is “combined with” another Event a new Event is created. This is called Cause and Effect in the World of Particles.

The world of Particles was created by the Greek Philosopher Aristotle. He denied the existence of the Dynamic by stating ‘There cannot be motion of motion or becoming of becoming or in general change of change’. The Greek based their view on the world on Logic and Euclidean geometry. They considered the word As IT IS.

When you look at the Event of the”man who has just been run over” by a car, The Greek View is of two Colliding Parts. In this view somebody is Responsible for the Accident. When you look at the Event from the perspective of the Wave the Accident is an Addition of Two Waves that are producing a Peak of High Intensity. There is no one to blame. The accident “Just Happened”. It was an Act of the Force of Creativity, The Elan Vital of Bergson.

Let’s have a look at the Design of Information Systems.

A long time ago the Designers of the Computer left the path of the Analogue Computer. An Analogue Computer is based on Waves. A Digital Computer is unable to represent Real numbers and Irrational numbers (π). It is also unable to represent many rational numbers (1/3). Many “real” problems are happening in Real and Irrational Space.

Digital Computers are representing the Dynamic World in a Static Way. A Program and a Database are a Static Representations of Reality. The Static changes into the Dynamic because of the Regular Pulses of the Clock of the CPU (Central Processing Unit).

NIAM is still by far the most “advanced” way to define an Information System. It is hardly used because many designers don’t have the ability or have lost the ability to Listen to and to Analyze Sentences that are Spoken by the User of the System. The result of not-using NIAM is a highly chaotic internal structure of the Information System. The System is not representing Reality at all.

NIAM uses the concept of the Elementary Fact (an Elementary Event), A Man is-run-over-by A Car. An Elementary Fact is a connection between two Nouns (Man, Car) and a Verb (Run-Over-By). Mostly the Verb is forgotten. The Static is still Dominating the Dynamic. The Car (A Movement) and the Man (A Movement) are dominating The Accident, The Run-Over-By. Strangely Enough the Memory of the Car and the Man fade away much faster than the Memory of the Accident. A War is remembered. The Soldiers are forgotten.

I am afraid we have to wait a little while until the Very Strong Wave of the Particle has finally died out.

LINKS

“What is an Event”, About Whitehead and Deleuze by Steven Shaviro

Bergson, Mathematics, and Creativity by Pete A. Y. Gunter

About Events by Jerymy Dunham

About NIAM

 

About the Future of Radio

On By konstapelIn Completed, Media2 Comments

When I was young (I am 57) the only link to the outside world was radio. My parents were poor and it took a very long time until they were able to buy a television. Until that time we went to friends to look at television shows that were the top of the bill (the Black & White Minstrel Show!).

 Together with my friend Fred we built a radio receiver and a radio transmitter. We started to make our own radio programs and were exited when we found out that others we able to listen to us. We were also very afraid the police would find us. At that time many young and old people were exploiting their own small “illegal” radio station. Some of them have never stopped.

When the television finally appeared in our home everything changed. My parents (especially my father) wanted to look and listen to almost everything. We had to keep our mouths shut. The television dominated our family and everything we did together like playing games stopped. I hated television and I must say I never fell in love with the Medium. It is taking too much of my time without giving anything back.

The best thing that happened to me was You Tube and other tools that make it possible to look/listen to something I want to see/hear at the right time and the right place. I am finally in control of my own time again.

I am still a friend of the Radio. The first reason is that radio is not dominant. I can listen to the radio and read a book. It is easy to drive a car and listen to the Radio.

Radio is also exiting when it comes to Events. I still prefer to listen to a soccer-game instead of watching the soccer-game on television. The combination is really fun. It has to do with the Emotions of the reporter and the Details he is presenting.

Radio is all about Emotions.

Radio brings you in a certain mood. Because mood changes with the moment Radio has to specialize. It also has to specialize because people have all kind of different interests. They want to know about what is happening in their local community but they also want to know what is happening in the world. They want to know more about Science, Sports, Politics or Spirituality.

What is the Future of Radio?

At this moment radio stations are essentially bought and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. They are not in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in the business of making money. At the end of the day, organizations have to make money to stay in business, but if making money is all that they care about, they will need to figure out a way to do without relying on people listening to the radio. The current scheme will be gone in the near future.

 

Increasingly, program directors are using computer programs to choose the records their stations will play. They are creating a Digital JuBox. Once everything is put in the music library the director can give the program a series of instructions and let the program produce a playlist. Is programmed Radio, Radio with a Heart?

 

 

The Radio of the Future is all about Listeners becoming the Stars and the Core contributors and Producers of the content that a radio will air. There will be free tools, facilities and access to content to allow individuals to search, edit and compile unique documentaries, investigative reports, artistic montages and new kinds of music. The Radio of the Future will be a tool to support Creativity and Passion.

  • Radio as a Digital Jubox

There is no need to listen to a Digital Jubox if everybody is able to program his own Digital Jubox.

  • Radio as a Commercial Tool

Everybody hates Commercials.

  • Radio is Life Itself

The real strength of radio is its ability to be truly “live”. Broadcasting can take place from nearly any place or location to report, chronicle or create “live” news and events. Being able to listen to something that is happening at this very second in another place is something that most humans get fascinated by.

  • Radio is the Human Voice

The live human voice is a totally different experience than any other one. It is powerful, touching and engaging.

  • Think Global, Act Local

Start at the Lowest level of Interaction, The Local Community. Give them the News and Interaction they Need. Create As Many Levels You want to Abstract the Local News. Create a Political View, an Ecological View, a Scientific View on the Your Content. Mix World News with Local News but when Local News becomes World News (or National News or …) be the first to be at The Right Place at the Right Moment.

  • Do it Yourself Radio

Give Listeners the opportunity to create and broadcast their own radio programs. It will generate new music, alternative news and reporting talent.

  • Radio is a Two Way Channel

Not only give Listeners the opportunity to broadcast but give them also the opportunity to react real-time and create groups to deepen an issue. Give them the opportunity to report their findings. If this happens it will close the feedback loop.

  • Specialize

Everything is a niche. Specific kinds of music, news or commentary are becoming clearly more important than typical generalized radio content that needs to appeal to as large as possible an audience.

  • People want to be surprised

Commercial radio today is less concerned with finding music that will draw listeners in than with eliminating music that might drive listeners out. The result is numbing repetition. People like repetition for a little while but when a format is completely predictable they will “zap” for something else. Some people like being surprised by strange sounds they have never heard before.

  • Archive, Classify and Search

Allow access to each and every show, interview or news item ever broadcast. People want to listen at their time to what they want to hear. Make it easy to look for what they want.

  • Create and experiment with as many channels and formats as you want

 

It is very easy to subdivide and multiply content into multiple channels with no major additional costs in infrastructure. If a channel or a format is not attracting enough listeners simply reconfigurate your content and start a new one.

About Programming Conversations and Conversations About Programming

On By konstapelIn Completed, Computer and Communication TechnologyLeave a comment

A major part of our activities have to do with “Not-Knowing”. We are constantly talking with others about “What we don’t Know”. We are speculating and are hoping that others know. Humans are wondering creatures.

The situation becomes more complicated when we meet people who are convinced they know but really don’t know. We believe them because they look like “People who know”. They are to be trusted. When we understand what they are talking about we spread the news and in due time many other people “know”.

The moment of Truth is when we Apply the Knowledge. Suddenly Everything Fails and we have to start all over again.

We are constantly talking with others about “What goes Wrong”. “What goes Wrong” is the major business of the Media Industry. What Goes Wrong is called News.

Many things that go wrong are transformed into a Reality Soap. Strange enough IT is not covered by the Reality-Soap-business.

I believe there are two reasons. The IT-business is the Most Incomprehensible Business in the World and we are accustomed to the fact “That Every Thing goes Wrong when you apply IT”.

The sad thing in IT is that a majority of the people in the IT-business don’t know what they are talking about. When a majority of Insiders is talking non-Sense the majority of the Outsiders believe they are talking Sense and are spreading the (non-)Sense to Others.

IT does not know that We (Humans) exist. IT is doing exactly what the Programmers are telling IT to do. A majority of the People in the IT-Business don’t know what Programmers are doing.

They believe they are doing something with a (programmer)language (Java, .Net) and the Internet. Some of them know important Hype terms like Web-Services and SOA (currently Agile & Blockchain!). All of them have never Applied what they are Talking about. Let’s call them Advisors.

Strangely enough the Advisors don’t understand that a Programmer is Talking to a Very Stupid Person called a Computer. The Computer is only able to do what he is Told to Do. The only thing the Advisors have to do is to Translate Human Language to Computer Language. This is a very simple Process if you know what You are Talking about.

Human Languages and Computer Languages contain Verbs and Nouns. Verbs are Processes and Nouns are States. The whole process starts with Defining What We are Talking About (The Universe of Discourse).

Many Humans are incapable to define What they Mean. They use the same Nouns in different Contexts. Some People use a Very Simple Vocabulary. Every Thing is a Thing and every Act is Doing Things.

A major part of the Activities of Advisors have to do with “not-Doing Things”. They are constantly talking with others about “What They Want to Do”. They are speculating and are hoping that IT will Solve all their Problems.

The Advisors believe that the Programmers will Understand what they are Telling and the Programmers believe that Advisors are telling them what To Do. Both of them don’t see that StoryTelling and Doing are from different Worlds. Advisors come from Venus and Programmers come from Mars.

The Users of IT Live on Earth.

Strange.

I feel I am Repeating the Same Story All The Time.

Repeating the Same Story all the Time is what many people are doing but they don’t know they are repeating the same story because they use Different Words to tell the Same Story or the Same Words to tell a Different Story.

What is the problem?

The Computer needs Logic and a major part of our Conversations are not Logical at all. We are trying to find “the Logic Behind” the Conversation.

Many people are not trained to find the “Logic behind Conversations“. They believe the World is an Endless Circular Conversation.

I don’t think Believe is the Right Term. I mean they are not Aware of the Fact that they are Talking all the Time without being Aware that they are Talking. They are Programmed Conversation Machines or Machines that are producing Words that give others the Impression that they Mean something. Perhaps Words are not ment to mean something. They are just Sounds.

Many people are incapable to Apply Logical Reasoning. They don’t have the talent or are not trained in School to Apply Logic. Logic is not trained at School anymore. In “the old times” Logic was the main component of the Curriculum of the “Latin School”. At that time IT (Logic) was part of Rhetorics.

When you are Applying Logical Reasoning you are a Craftsman. When a Craftsman makes a Mistake he is really in Trouble. His Doings operate in Reality.

The Doings of an Advisor are Imaginary. When an Advisor makes a Mistake he asks another Advisor to Advice. In the End Many Advisors are Advising Many Advisors. This creates Confusion. Advisors Like Confusion. Confusion means Work and Work means Income. With “mean” I don’t mean that Work is “the same as” Confusion. I am using a Rhetoric Concept called Analogy. For some people Work becomes highly Confusing when IT (not it) is used.

When the Advisors have created a lot of Confusion the Programmers start to find the Logic behind the Confusion. When they believe they have found the Logic they create an Infrastructure to Support Networks of Confused Advisors.

This Infrastructure uses different Terms for the Same Concept to make sure that the Advisors are able To Apply What They are Talking About. This new Infrastructure supports Endless Circular Conversations and it Generates a High State of Confusion. The high state of Confusion generates lots of Work (and Income) for Advisors, Programmers AND Users.

The Advisors are Happy because they can go on with their Circular Dialogues, the Programmers are Happy because the Advisors are Happy and the Users are Happy because they have something To Do.

Perhaps Work “is a” “State” of “Being Confused“.

If we could Eliminate all the Advisors and let the Craftsman talk to the Craftsman we would Avoid a Lot of Problems.

If we would Stop Programming What is not Programmable we would Avoid even More Problems.

If we would Stop Innovating IT we could Finally start to Use IT.

If we could Program Ourselves we would not need a Computer at All.

Watch Out.

This is an Advice.

LINKS

About Rhetorics

How to Analyze a Discourse

About the relationship between Creativity and Confusion

How Software Packages generate Confusion

Why Scientists are Really Artists and Why Many of Them are Creating Terrible Artifacts

Why Logic is not Logical at all

How the Programmer stopped the Dialogue

About Loops in Programs

About Software Layers

About Balfour and the End of Time.

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Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz lived between 1646 and 1716. He was a universal scientist and made contributions to mathematics, philosophy, technology and social sciences. Leibniz did not believe Time and Space were real. Current developments in Physics prove that Leibniz was right. We are approaching the End of Time and Space.

The observation that time is a linear chain of events moving from the past to the future is wrong. Our believe-system makes a selection out of an infinite amount of (disconnected) Events.

The events are part of a very complex Framework, a Fluent Crystal, which is slightly out of balance. With every change of the Crystal new Shapes, or Configurations, are formed but the Crystal, the Structure, The Geometry, is not changed.

According to Leibniz Our world is the world which is at the same time the Simplest in hypotheses and the Richest in phenomena. There are many other possible worlds because there is an infinity of possible laws. Some of the laws are proper to one world, others proper to another. Each possible individual of a world includes the laws of its world in its notion.

Monad
Monad

The Universe of Leibniz is filled with Individual Monads (Souls) who are Observing. A Monad is pregnant with the future and laden with the past of his own World. Past and Future are folded up within the Monad.

A Monad is always in the Now. We are part of a Monad and the Monad is part of Us. We are One Mind that is fragmented by a Cosmic Accident. All the Minds contain the Sparkle of the Whole and are desperatly trying to Unite.

Leibniz does not believe in cause and effect (Time). They are a way to explain what we See. The Universe is What it Is. It contains a Pre-Established Harmony. We are a product of Our Senses and the Senses are creating a very Narrow View of the Universe. We Think the Universe is What We See and create Theories that prove that we are Right but all the Theories until now contain a fatal error.

They are proving that Time is Linear and Space is Distance. We are unable to travel Space because we are not able to exceed the limit of Light. The prove of all these theories is based on Infinite Regress and Infinite Regress is a logical mistake. Our Universe is not “Turtles on Turtles“, “Particles all the Way Down”.The Universe is a Fixed Structure and we (the Monads) are exploring this Stucture.

Every monad mirrors the Whole of the Universe in that it expresses every other monad, but no monad has a window through which it could actually receive or supply causal influences. A monad cannot be influenced, there is no way for a monad to be born or destroyed. All Monads are Eternal. They are always Watching the Others. The only thing that changes is the Way they Watch, Their Point of View. The Monads are Alone but they are also Together because Every Monad is an Expression of the Same Principle, Harmony, Beauty or Love, The Fluent Crystal, That IS.

When a Monad is Watching it is capable of having an infinite number and complexity of perceptions. We (our Brain, Our Senses) are not conscious of all these “little perceptions” (Events), as Leibniz calls them. We connect some of them, create a “stream of consciousness” and make up a convincing story. We are constantly filtering our perceptions. The Filter is our Believe System. A huge part of What we See is not Seen but Projected on the Outside World. We See what we want to See.

The main characteristic of Our Universe is Varity. We are constantly generating new Insights of the Whole. Our Universe is a Field that is creating New Exiting Combinations that are Creating New Exiting Combinations. It always Changes because we the Observers are Changing our Point of View.  Our Universe is a Creative Universe.

The independent physicist Julian Barbour used the philosophy of Leibniz to create a completely new vision on our Universe. His vision can be found in his book “the End of Time”.

In a blog I wrote about Seth. Seth is a Monad who uses channeling (an Exchange of Energy) to explain the Physical Universe. Seth shows how we are Creating our Own Reality and what we can do to create the Reality we really want. A few days ago I found Elias. Elias is also a channeling Monad. Elias uses the Concepts of Seth to explain what is Happening at this Moment.

A small citation:

“You all notice a change in consciousness of your world. Even those who are unaware notice a changing shift in consciousness“.

“The action of your shift in consciousness encompasses the entirety of your globe. It is not limited to any group, any family, any selectivity of consciousness within this dimension. It is all-encompassing”.

“You have chosen, within this dimension, a new experience in creativity. You have chosen, within what you term to be your history, certain actions and experiences for long time periods, in your terms. These have been purposeful for those experiences. You presently move away from your religious era, which has continued for quite some physical time period, into a new awareness in consciousness, to allow you an expanded creativity and allow you to utilize your abilities of essence within physical focus. You are expanding your reality to encompass more of essence and more of your own creative abilities“

What Elias is explaining is what Leibniz (and Balbour) are explaining but he explains Much More. He explains Why we are moving into what the Old Scientists called The Golden Age. We are moving into the Golden Age because we are bored by the Way we are looking at the Fluent Crystal.

We have explored every part we are able to See. We are blocked by all the Hierarchical Systems (Religion, Science, Politics, Banking) that are not based on a Solid Foundation. The Foundation of the World is not based on Hierarchy but on Relationship. We want something New. Something that gives US, the Monad of this Possible Universe, the Opportunity to Explore and use OUR Creativity.

The Golden Age will be a time when the Financial System of the Earth will collapse, War, Aging and Sickness will disappear and traveling Time/Space will become possible. The Doors of Perception will open wide and many new parts of the Beautiful Crystal will become visible. The most important potential of the Golden Age will be Unlimited Creativity.

The huge change in Focus on a completely New Part of the Crystal Field will destroy all our current Believe-Systems. This will create an enormous amount of Chaos and Trauma but in the end we will live in something we now would consider Paradise.

LINKS

An Interview with Julian Barbour about the End of Time

An Article of Julian Barbour about the Philosophy of Leibniz

The Philosophy of Leibniz

About the Shift that is happening at this moment, The Website contains all the material of Elias

 

About the War of Words

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The amount of people that are confused or are creating confusion is growing. It all has to do with Language. New words are created. Languages and Cultures are mixing. New Inventions and Theories are Created and Destroyed. We are in a highly creative phase, the End Game of Time Wave Zero. Is it possible to find the pattern behind this pattern?

The Encyclopedia Britannica is the oldest English-language encyclopedia still in print. It was first published between 1768 and 1771 in Edinburgh and quickly grew in popularity and size. The Brittanica expanded from 3 volumes in 1768 to 32 volumes today.

In France Diderot created the first French encyclopedia in 1745. It started as a translation of the English Cyclopedia of Ephraim Chambers. When he and his co-editor, mathematician Jean d’Alembert, were finished, they created a new work, the ‘Encyclopedie’. At that time it contained everything that was necessary to known about the Western World.

Its aim was “to collect all the knowledge that now lies scattered over the face of the earth, to make known its general structure to the men among we live, and to transmit it to those who will come after us,” to make men not only wiser” but also “more virtuous and more happy“.

Denis Diderot was one of the originators and interpreters of the Age of Enlightenment. This 18th-century movement was based on the belief that Reason could find True Knowledge.

During the Enlightment many scientists hoped that it would be possible to find the Eternal Truth, The Simple set of Rules that would Explain Every Thing. It was just a Matter of Time.

What they did not realize was that Truth is Highly Context Dependent. It is dependent on the Spirit of the Time, the Knowledge and Interpretation of the Writer of the Context, The Status of the Writer and the Genesis of Science.

Not only Knowledge changes but also Words change their meaning all the time. Everything Changes and the only thing that is left is to accept this Fact of Life.

The awareness of the problem of the Eternal Truth has created Cynicism. Scientists especially in the Social Sciences (Post-Modernism, Deconstruction) don’t believe it will be possible to find any objective general accepted pattern or explanation. They are fighting the goals of the highly rational Enlightment with very complicated rational arguments of their own.

When the exponential rise of Novelty predicted by Time Wave Zero (and other comparable models) reaches the Point Omega we will be literally lost in Space. Innovations that took centuries to happen in history will happen in a few days.

It is really true that there are no general Explanations possible? Is Everything Context Dependent?

The problem that the Eternal Change of our primary communication vehicle, Language, is creating is analyzed by many great minds in history. Perhaps the greatest genius was Wittgenstein. At the end of his life his students put all his Observations (he did not believe in Theory) in something called The Blue and Brown Books. In these books he is teaching the Art of Clarification.

Wittgenstein invented a new way of looking at the world called a Family Resemblance. If we gather together members of the same Family, they probably Look Alike, although there is no Distinctive Feature that they all share in Common. A brother and a sister might have the same dark eyes, while that sister and her father share a slightly turned-up nose.

They share a group of features, some of which are more distinctly present in some members of the family, while some features are not present at all. Wittgenstein argues that the different uses of one word and rules share the same Family Resemblance.

A Family is a Vague Set of Relationships that have something in Common but the parts of the set are Different. A Family is a unique set of permutations of distinctive features.

The only way to recognize a Family is to meet the members and create an intuition, a feeling. To do this we have to leave our study room and walk around in Reality. We have to move into the Context instead of floating above The Context.

Floating above the Context is called Imagining. There is nothing wrong with imagining. The imagination (Spirit) is the Mother of Art. Changing Art into a Science Destroys the Beauty of the Work of Art. Just like a Family a Piece of Art shows a pattern but is also shows exceptions of the pattern. The exceptions show a pattern but this pattern also contains a pattern. The world is a self-reference, a Fractal.

Scientists don’t realize that they are creating Fiction. When they would realize that they are producing Fiction they would certainly improve their Style. Scientific Fiction (a Genre) is mostly unreadable for other Scientists and especially for “Normal” people like me.

There are Many Families and there are even Families of Families. Some people have been born with a Talent to Observe one Family. Others are aware of completely different Families. All of them share features but it will never be possible to find The Set of all Sets of features. Finding the set of sets created a huge problem in Mathematics. It was the main reason why Wittgenstein changed his “theory”. He left the field of Mathematics, spend years in complete isolation (he was a teacher) until the people of Cambridge begged him to come back.

It does not help to spend a lot of time to discuss a joint Family. It only creates a War of the Words or a nicer term of Wittgenstein, A Language Game. A major part of Scientific Fiction is about the Quest to find the general Definitions of the set of all sets, The Holy Grail of Science… When we spend too much time to Fight we will never See.

The quest of Objectivity shows itself in the Use of Statistics. Scientists are unable to find the right Context (a Family) but they are also unaware of the Fractal Structure of the Universe. They are also completely unaware about the boundaries of Statistics. They accept the General Truth of Statistics without any awareness of the background.

What is the solution to all these problems?

The fist step is to accept the Spiraling Spiral and Self-Reference as the fundamental Fractal of the Universe. It is really a simple clarifying explanation.

The next step is to determine the Level and the Phase of the Spiral You are in (Style, Chronotope, Family, Network, Field of Reference, Bias). It determines what You are able to See and Do. It defines the Place in Time/Space you are Watching. If You want to move to another Level or State change the State of Your Awareness.

The last step is to feel the Movement of the Force of Life, The Tao,  and connect to this Movement. If you have accomplished this all the Clarifications you are looking for are given to you by the Great Force of Creation, Inspiration.

About Time Wave Zero

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The amount of Ideas (Novelty) is increasing exponential. This is predicted by Timewave Zero of Terrence McKenna. The model predicts a singularity at December 21, 2012. At that moment we will jump to a completely new level of Consciousness.

The most interesting prediction of McKenna is that in 2012 we will be able to Travel Space/Time. This will make it possible to move back in Time and travel the many Time Loops.

We will also be able to leave Earth and Travel to the Seven Parallel Universes that are until now veiled for most of the people on Earth. Only the Shaman (the Mystics) were able to do this until now. They knew how to move through the Void into Space/Time.

To do this they have to Cheat the Raven (or the Eagle or the Demiurg), the Creator of the Matrix that generates the current state of Linear Causal Time.

A new Phase of Time Wave Zero will start at 2010. At that time we will move into a very high state of acceleration.

Perhaps you think Time Wave Zero is barely nonsense but you have to admit innovation is speeding up in an incredible way.

When you are an employee you don’t know what is happening. Perhaps  you suppose that your boss or the management will take care of you. Suppose they are also completely in the Dark about the Future.

When you are completely in the Dark about the Future you are reacting on impuls to everything that is treatening your company. This is called “muddling through“.

The effect of “muddling through” is that many projects fail or are stopped before they are finished. To muddle you need a lot of money. When your company is in trouble the money is gone and the only impulse that is left is to fire people. This starts a downward spiral.

Imagine the next four years innovation will speed up with a speed nobody has seen in the history of the world. If this happens your company will move into a State of Chaos.

Not only your company will end in a State of Chaos you will also get stressed to a level that your body will get out of balance. You will get sick.

What can you do to survive the last four years of history?

To find balance you have to become an Observer. Watch the outside but don’t react on impulse. Reflect about what is happening. Use your analytic capabilities and face the facts.

Many people wan’t see a pattern.  When you don’t see a pattern you get overloaded.

Your intuition knows the pattern but is unable to explain the pattern. You feel something is going on but don’t know what it is but it is getting stronger. When you use your intuition you know how to react to a situation. It feels good or it feels bad.

Always follow the good feeling and have the guts to trust this feeling. It will lead you to to right path. When you are on the path, the path will take you.

You will be in the Tao. The path you will find will be the path of your heart and the path of your talent. Use your talent it will be needed because you are on this world to learn and to grow.

When you feel the Spirit you will receive the right ideas and you will meet the right people at the right time. They are your soul-brothers and soul-sisters. Respect them and value their talents. We will only survive the Singularity when we Cooperate.

Use all the resource that are available but don’t exceed the limits. Take time to enjoy your friends, your wife or husband and enjoy nature.

Nature is a place where you will find rest. Listen to and make music. Music will bring you in a state of Harmony.

When the time comes don’t be afraid to Jump To the Next level. The next phase will not be a disaster. It will be a phase were we will be able to Co-Create with the Spirit, the Creative Force of Life.

LINK

About Time Wave Zero

What Terrence McKenna did not See

About 2012

About the Renaissance

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The Renaissance was a Cultural Movement that spanned roughly the 14th through the 17th century. It started in Italy in the late Middle Ages and later spread to the rest of Western Europe.

 After the Dark Middle Ages, controlled by the Church of Rome, aimed at the Inside (Spirit and Soul), many people wanted to discover the Outside.

The Renaissance is the Age of Discovery. It is the time of Columbus.

The printing press, invented in 1450, made it possible to distribute all the new knowledge all over the known world.

The new knowledge is in reality very old knowledge. Renaissance means re-birth and the Renaissance is the re-birth of the knowledge (and wisdom) of the Greek and the Romans.

This knowledge was forbidden and destroyed by the Rulers in Rome. It came back because of renewed contacts with the Arab Culture. At that time Arab Culture was at the top of its cycle.

Art (Leonardo Da Vinci) and Science (Copernicus (1514)) exploded. Both of them were funded by the rich merchants (Medici, Venice).

Scientists started to experiment and used advanced tools (Microscope, Telescope) to study the external world and the internal world (the Body). They looked with their own Eyes and not with the Eyes of the Bible.

In the Arts the Perspective was invented. Artist used advanced tools (“camera’s) to support their own eyes to project the outside world on a flat surface.

Another Re-Birth was the Reformation (Luther, 1517). The Bible was translated in many languages and distributed by the printing press to many people.

For the first time people outside the Church could read and study Religious documents and compare them with Scientific Evidence  from Greece, Arabia and Rome.

The need to convert others to the Christian faith was huge. Many expeditions, Crusades,  were send out to unknown territory to find convertible humans.

The missionaries used the old fashioned trick learned from the Huns to force people to accept  the Faith by violence. Millions of people were tortured and killed.

At the outside of the Christian Empire the Arabs were attacking all the time. They were also very wealthy.

The search for Gold stimulated the weapon-industry of the west.

Not only the weapon industry flourished also the transport industry (Maps, Navigation, Big Ships) made a lot of progress.

The combination of both of them (The Navy, “War-Ships”) helped the West to Rule the Sea.

Production in the Renaissance was carried out by the Guilds, a Cooperation of Craftsman. They were almost in total control of every craft in the big cities.

The Renaissance (Creation) is part of the Cycle of Western Culture.

In this Cycle it was preceded by the rule of Roman Church (Control) and followed by the Industrial Revolution (Social).

The rebirth was fuelled by an Expansion Phase (Fire).

In this phase not only Arabic Culture expanded and rose to a high point also the new rulers of the West (Celts, Germans), the descendants of the Huns, created new Kingdoms and build the Cathedrals. The Cathedrals contained all the occult knowledge of that time (Sacred Geometry, The Spiral, The Light, The Four Forces,.).

On a macro level we see an interesting pattern.

The phase of Fire (Expansion, Practice, Summer, Sensory, …) fuels the phase of Creation (Up, Spirit, Idea, Eye, Winter, Mythic,…).

Ideas are put into Practice or Practice generates Ideas. The combination of Sensory and Mythic (A Game) is called Invention or Exploration by Will McWhinney.

The game of Exploration is an Infinite Game. Infinite games are about continuing the Game.

Going Back to Jump to another Level is also a pattern that is visible in the most advanced theory about ecologies promoted by the Resilience Alliance (RA).

The Ecology of the Roman Church dominant in the Dark part of the Middle Ages collapsed. It collapsed because of many factors.

In this time the Plague killed millions of people. The Climate was very instable (An Ice-Age) and the new Kingdoms of the Huns and Celts were heavily expanded. They started to fight for dominance.

According to the theory of RA a collapsing ecology reverts to a previous stage to rise again.

What does this say about Innovation?

Innovation is fuelled by an earlier (expansion) stage in history. It is triggered by a collapse of an Ecology.

If we look at the current state of the world we see a Collapse (a Compression) of the World Wide Ecology. It will certainly generate a stage of Ideas and Creativity.

This is needed to solve the current problems. In contrary to many ideas about Innovation the only way to solve the problems is to Look Back and Learn from History.

We can learn from the Control Stage of the Middle Ages where one paradigm was enforced. At this moment Science is enforcing again one paradigm, the paradigm of Control, Abstraction, Technology, the Computer, Statistics and the Factory.

They were created during the Industrial Revolution that was aimed at creating Unity (Every Thing is the Same).

At this moment we are moving into the stage of the Center, Balance and Harmony.  In this stage we always jump to a new level of Conscioussness. In the last Center-Stage the Religion of the Islam was born so the chances are high that a new World Religion will appear or re-appear.

People that explore contradicting paradigms are excluded from the scientific community. This community controls the world of Inspiration just like the Guilds were controlling the crafts in the Renaissance. To innovate we need Freedom of Paradigm.

We can learn from the Idea stage of the Renaissance. It teaches us that a Union of Art, Science and Spirituality is needed to support real innovation.

We can also learn from a comparable phase in the Cycle, the phase of Harmony. In this phase the old is completely destroyed by an invasion of people outside its territory (The Huns).

The West is trying with all its force to block a huge part of the Earth (the “Under-Developed” countries) to take part in its innovation. It creates (Economic and Legal) Walls just like the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire created Walls to protect their territory from the Huns and The Celts when they were in their end-stage.

The Under-Developed countries are of a Lower Culture. Perhaps these cultures carry something the West desperately needs. In these cultures the collective is more important than the individual. In these cultures the sick, the poor and the old are still taken care of.

Funny.

I believe this was the message Christianity wanted to bring to the World.

Something went wrong in the West don’t you think?

LINKS

About the Perspective

Lectures about the Renaissance part 1

Lectures about the Renaissance part 2

Lectures about the Renaissance part 3