J. Konstapel Leiden 4-1-2026

In this blog, I share my knowledge and experience as a corporate strategist and architect for over 50 years.

This blog is related to History and Future are a Fractal Process

The five elements.

Jump to the Reading Guide push here.

In this blog, I document 50 years of experience with strategic thinking and software architecture.

I start by presenting 3 PDFs. One is an essay translated into English from 2006 about the history of cyclic Thinking.

The second is about my experience between 1996 to 1998 managing big software development projects.

The other is a fusion of my blog and other blogs about harmonic (cyclic) systems from the last 10 years.

The list of blogs you can find here.

20 years of research in cyclic systems.

J.Konstapel, Leiden, from 10 February 2006.to 4-1-2026.

This is the English translation of this PDF in Dutch.

I have been a corporate architect and strategist for over 40 years.

I have documented my progress almost every day and wrote about it in Spelen met tussenschotten, lagen en stromen.(1-1998)

The History of Cyclic Thinking (2006) in Dutch

Spelen met tussenschotten, lagen en stromen.(1998 now in English).

Fuse of the two Pdf’s and all my blogs from 2006-1-2026.

Hans Konstapel, The History of Cyclic Thinking, Version 7, 10 February 2006 ©2007, Constable Research

1. Introduction

PS: This is the English translation of the Dutch PDF at the beginning. This is a long essay. If you want to skip this essay, push here.

Every year the same seasons return. A day consists of morning, afternoon, evening and night. The daily and yearly cycles are easily observable to humans. As soon as cycles occur very quickly (electrons) or very slowly (universe), the cycle escapes attention. The interesting thing about a cycle is that by looking backward one can look forward. By examining the past one can look into the future. With a long cycle time one can look very far ahead.

This note is about the history of cyclic thinking. Additionally, the accumulated knowledge about cyclic thinking is applied on the one hand to map the past and on the other hand to cast a look at the future.

It will be demonstrated that especially in China, India and Greece (Pythagoras) there was deep insight into the harmony that cyclic patterns bring about both within humans, in their outer world (the earth) and their upper world (the heavens). This knowledge was narrowed by Aristotle to one principle, causality (the line) and to one realm, matter. Through this materialism became the dominant thinking framework in the West.

The ancient knowledge went underground in the West and sometimes fragmented ended up in the hands of mystical societies such as the Kabbalists, the Rosicrucians and much later the Theosophical movement. Additionally it was taken up by the movement started by Pythagoras of the Mathematikoi, the current mathematicians and natural scientists.

The acquisition of insight, particularly into economic cycles, became relevant again after the great crisis in 1929. What will become clear is that economic insights (based on advanced mathematics) suspiciously resemble the ancient knowledge from China, India and Greece and that they offer a new model to look ahead.

2. The Medicine Wheel

The Wave of Human Migration

The above map shows human migration over time¹. Approximately 10,000 years ago nomadic hunter-gatherers began to settle². This first took place in the Middle East³. From the Middle East they spread like a wave across Europe and later via Northern Europe and Greenland to America (Mexico, Andes)⁴.

At the places where they settled a culture emerged. These cultures began producing forms of writing around 3000 B.C.⁵ initially in the form of symbols⁶. With the help of symbols the world was divided up.

The culture was provided with a natural center (mountain, hill, lake). Examples of these centers are Stonehenge⁷, New Grange⁸ and Mesa Verde⁹. From this center the four cardinal directions were distinguished, above (father heaven) and below (mother earth).

Around the center a circle was defined that was correlated with the moon cycle (the Mother), the life cycle, the sun cycle (the Father) and the planets. The central centers grew into simulators of the movements in the starry heavens. This made it possible to predict important events (e.g., the solstice) and connect important rituals to them (e.g., the generation of fertility in spring).

¹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_migration ² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution ³ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertile_Crescent ⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoamerica ⁵ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_writing ⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proto-Indo-European_religion ⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonehenge ⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newgrange ⁹ http://www.cpluhna.nau.edu/People/anasazi.htm

This primary correlation system was refined by placing plants (herbs) and animal behavior in their place. The ultimate result is referred to as the Medicine Wheel¹⁰.

The medicine wheel is the first cycle model. At every place where the cycle appears in history there are references to this system. In the Bible the symbols are mentioned in the vision of Ezekiel¹¹. In Christianity they are linked to the apostles (e.g., John with Eagle). In astrology they are seen in the zodiac¹² and in China they are linked to the yearly cycle and the body¹³.

Preserving the Centre

The special thing about the Medicine Wheel is that it maintains the center (The Creator Stone), nature. This was necessary because of the great dependence of hunters/gatherers on nature. In later cycles the center was incorporated into the cycle and adapted to needs. This often had disastrous effects. Many cultures left the earth as a desert.

¹⁰ http://www.spiritualnetwork.net/native/medicine_wheel.htm ¹¹ Ezekiel 1:10 ¹² http://ecuip.lib.uchicago.edu/diglib/science/cultural_astronomy/cultures.html ¹³ http://www.tcm-congres.nl/zondag/joanduveen/artikel/

3. Cyclic Thinking in China

The discovery of the cycle in China is attributed to Fu Hsi¹⁴ (2800 B.C.). He is regarded as the first mythical emperor of China. According to tradition Fu Hsi receives the cycle as he meditates by the Yellow River. During this meditation a turtle appears carrying the cycle on its back in the form of a magic square¹⁵. The cycle is referred to as the Yellow River Map¹⁶.

The Yellow River Map (2800 BC)

The Yellow River map represents a system in which the numbers 1 through 9 are ordered in a magic square¹⁷. In this square all directions have the same sum (15) and the number 5 stands in the middle¹⁸. By connecting the numbers together two cycles are formed. About 1000 years later another mythical figure, Yu, while sitting on the banks of the Lo River again sees a turtle with a new map on its back. This map is called the Lo Shu map.

¹⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu_Hsi ¹⁵ In the distant past the shell of the turtle was used as an instrument to predict the future. It is not strange that one observes the cycle on the shell of a turtle. The cycle is observable in a large number of places in nature. See http://members.chello.nl/~jlmbar/Uitleg/spiralen.htm and especially http://members.chello.nl/~jlmbar/Uitleg/pentagonaal.htm ¹⁶ http://www.kheper.net/topics/I_Ching/history.html ¹⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_square#The_Lo_Shu_square_.283.C3.973_magic_square.29 ¹⁸ http://www.hiakz.com/loshu.asp

The two maps are combined into one model, the Sheng cycle.

The Sheng cycle is applied literally to everything in China. Through continuous observation and classification an extensive system of correspondences was developed, through which phenomena at different levels could be related to each other. The great cycle of the universe is brought into direct relation with the cycle of the state (Sun Tzu¹⁹) and the body (acupuncture). On all levels the world is constantly observed to be on the lookout for a change in the cycle. When this change is established very rigorous adjustments are sometimes made²⁰.

¹⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu ²⁰ http://www.chinaknowledge.de/History/calendar.html

The Sheng cycle consists of the five elements which are connected to each other in a clockwise cycle. The Sheng cycle is called the generating or nourishing cycle. Besides the Sheng cycle the Ko cycle is recognized. This cycle is called the controlling cycle. With the help of the Ko cycle one can influence the elements via the diagonals. The counterclockwise cycle is called the Wu cycle (insulting cycle).

A cycle is in harmony when all parts make an equal contribution to each other. The cycle is out of balance when one or more of the parts is dominant relative to the other parts. Through this dominance the parts of the cycle communicate with each other in different directions and a chaotic (not symmetrical) pattern emerges.

The cycle was connected with a digital classification system based on duality, Yin and Yang.

Between 450 and 700 the Chinese closed their empire for centuries from the outside world by building enormous walls. This protection was intended to hold back the Mongols (the Huns).

From 960 to the end of the 19th century the Chinese state was completely governed by the Sheng cycle and the associated digital classification. This resulted in a rigid and often harsh rule system.

Through self-imposed isolation from the outside world the West and the East only come into contact in a limited number of cases²¹. In the Renaissance the Portuguese developed a bridgehead in Macao. From this bridgehead they monopolize trade with China.

In the 18th century the English set up a barter trade in which tea, silk and porcelain are exchanged for cotton and opium from India. The opium has such a negative effect on the state that the emperor forbids the barter trade. This results in the Opium War (1839-1842) in which England ultimately wins and captures the city of Hong Kong as spoils.

²¹ http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/modern.html

From that moment on things go wrong. The Chinese state is struck by enormous disasters (drought, hunger, floods, internal conflicts). The West proves to be militarily superior. France conquers Vietnam and Cambodia. The English take Burma. The Russians conquer Turkestan and the Japanese Taiwan. The Chinese Empire loses all its power and especially its prestige²².

In 1912 the emperor’s power is taken over and China becomes a republic that is partly oriented toward the West (Chiang Kai-shek) and partly toward communist Russia (Mao Tse-Tung). On October 1, 1949 the country is divided into two parts: communist People’s Republic of China and Western Taiwan.

²² Prestige is a very important aspect in the East. Perhaps this is why the Wu cycle is called the “insulting” cycle.

4. Cyclic Thinking in India

Around 2500 B.C. the Indus Valley is occupied by a people, the Aryans²³ (the pure ones²⁴). They speak Sanskrit and produce the Vedas²⁵ (liturgy), the Brahmanas²⁶, the Upanishads²⁷ (commentaries on the Vedas and philosophy) and the Puranas²⁸ (myths and history). The culture of the Aryans forms the basis for Buddhism²⁹ (500 B.C.), Hinduism³⁰ (6th century A.D.) and the caste system.

Around 700 B.C. a completely coherent thinking system emerges. It gives a complete description of the functioning of physical nature (Prana), physical man (Vijnana), mental man (Manas) and the spiritual upper world (Ananda). The four spheres differ from each other because they vibrate slower or faster.

In all these spheres the same principles are always applicable. There is a self-referencing structure, which is called the Great Breath³¹. The universe expands and compresses (breathes) according to a fixed rhythm.

²³ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aryan ²⁴ They call themselves the pure ones because they do not want to “mix” with the existing population. ²⁵ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vedas ²⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brahmanas ²⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upanishads ²⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puranas ²⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism ³⁰ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinduism ³¹ “Its one absolute attribute, which is itself, eternal, ceaseless Motion, is the ‘Great Breath,’ which is the perpetual motion of the Universe, in the sense of limitless, ever-present Space. —H. P. Blavatsky: The Secret Doctrine http://www.theosociety.org/pasadena/sd/sd-hp.htm

“The proper translation of the word Svara is the current of life-wave. It is that wavy motion which is the cause of the evolution of cosmic undifferentiated matter into the differentiated universe, and the involution of this into the primary state of non-differentiation, and so on, in and out, for ever and ever. The Svara is the manifestation of the impression on matter of that power which in man is known to us as the power which knows itself. It is to be understood that the action of this power never ceases. It is ever at work, and evolution and involution are the very necessity of its unchangeable existence”³².

Both in China and in India the wave manifests itself in five parts. In India the first form is the Akasha (“The Âkâsha is the most important of all the Tattvas. It must, as a matter of course, precede and follow every change of state on every plane of life. Without this there can be no manifestation or cessation of forms. It is out of Âkâsha that every form comes, and it is in Âkâsha that every form lives. The Âkâsha is full of forms in their potential state”).

Out of the Akasha four Tattvas emerge that all relate in a certain way to the life wave.

• The Vâyu: The vibrations of the Vayu are spherical in form, and the motion is said to be at acute angles to the life-wave.
• The Tejas: The Tejas move in an upward direction, and the centre of the direction is the direction of the life-wave. One vibration of this element makes the figure of a triangle.
• The Apas: The Apas is said to resemble in shape the half moon. It is, moreover, said to move downward.
• The Prithivi: The Prithivi is said to be quadrangular in shape. This is said to move in the middle. It neither moves at right angles, nor at acute angles, nor upwards, nor downwards, but it moves along the line of the wave. The line and the quadrangle are in the same plane.

The description of the Tattvas seems enormously abstract but upon closer inspection they are a very precise specification of a self-contained spiral (the Anu). The four spheres can be considered as logarithmic³³ spirals that move with ever higher frequency around a spiral with lower frequency³⁴.

The knowledge of the Aryans of nature, humans and the spiritual world is nothing less than spectacular. In particular scientific research in physics increasingly shows that they were aware of principles that only now emerge from the latest insights (super-string theory)³⁵.

Through the caste system the knowledge is not widely distributed. It is only passed down from father to son in the highest caste (the Brahmins).

³² See Rama Prasad, (1894), Natures finer forces. Text available at http://www.hermetics.org/prasad.html ³³ http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LogarithmicSpiral.html ³⁴ http://storm.shodor.org/mandy/cnew_archive/1113.html ³⁵ http://www.smphillips.8m.com

After the period of the Aryans India is ruled by among others the Maurya³⁶ (third century B.C.), the Guptas³⁷ (4th-5th century A.D.), the Cholas³⁸ (9th-13th century, responsible for Borobudur and Angkor Wat) and the Islamic Mughal³⁹ sultans (1526-1857).

In the Renaissance a flourishing trade takes place between India and Europe. After the establishment of European trading companies (from the 16th century) the trade between India and Western Europe takes on greater scope. The Portuguese are the first to set foot in 1498 (Vasco da Gama), a century later followed by the British (East-India Company), the Dutch East India Company (VOC), the French and the Danes. The VOC is the foremost trader of Indian goods with Asia and Europe for one and a half centuries (cotton, saltpeter and indigo).

During the Industrial Revolution the power in India in the second half of the 18th century is taken over by the British. By around 1840 they have colonized most of India. After the great Indian mutiny in 1858 India comes under direct rule of the British Crown. British rule (British Raj) lasts until 1947. During the period that England has power in India the interest in knowledge from India increases enormously. All kinds of Western “mystical” societies are founded (e.g., the Theosophical Society⁴⁰) which devote themselves to studying the old Vedic books.

Around 1920 the Indian National Congress (the later Congress Party) emerges in India. It is a broad movement with people from different religions, castes and different ethnic origins. On August 15, 1947 India becomes independent after years of non-violent struggle led by Gandhi under Jawaharlal Nehru and the government is transferred by the last viceroy, Lord Mountbatten. With this the

³⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurya_Empire ³⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gupta ³⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chola_dynasty ³⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mughal ⁴⁰ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theosophical_Society

country becomes an independent member of the British Commonwealth. For the first 55 years of Indian independence the Congress Party remains in power for 45 of them.

The Muslim League, under the leadership of Jinnah, wants a homeland for Muslims. Under pressure from the league the British decide to partition British India into India and Islamic West and East Pakistan. This partition results in mass migrations and approximately one million deaths as a result of ethnic and religious riots.

5. Cyclic Thinking in Greece

The insights about the cycle are adopted in Greece through trade contacts from Egypt⁴¹, India and China⁴². They are found as the four elements in Heraclites⁴³ and Hippocrates⁴⁴. The latter applies the elements to medicine (the four humours). The theory of Hippocrates influenced Western medical thinking until the 19th century. Through the work of Jung⁴⁵,⁴⁶ the four elements, now called archetypes, still play an important role in psychology.

⁴¹ http://www.geocities.com/roggemansmarcel/bronnen.htm ⁴² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_element ⁴³ http://ratmachines.com/philosophy/heraclites/ ⁴⁴ http://www.kheper.net/topics/typology/four_humours.html ⁴⁵ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archetype ⁴⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myers-Briggs_Type_Indicator

Pythagoras Greece (582 BC)

The most interesting philosopher is Pythagoras⁴⁷ (582-502 B.C.). Pythagoras opens a mystical school whose members are called the Mathematikoi. The school of Pythagoras concerns itself with geometry. It is clear beyond doubt that the insights about the life wave were taken up in this school and passed on through this school to successive generations of philosophers in Greece. The mystical school of Pythagoras not only set Western mathematics in motion but has also been a source of inspiration for many mystical societies such as the Rosicrucians⁴⁸.

⁴⁷ http://www.completepythagoras.net/index.html ⁴⁸ http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rozenkruisers

Besides Plato (427-347 B.C.)⁴⁹ Aristotle (384-324 B.C.)⁵⁰, Plato’s student, is without doubt the most influential thinker of ancient Greece. Aristotle gives a practical implementation of the ideas about the cycle. He does this by reducing the five aspects of the cycle to one aspect, causality. Furthermore the four spheres are narrowed to one sphere, matter (Prana). Aristotle is the father of Western materialism.

By using causality as a dominant explanatory model the circle (or helix) is replaced by the line segment. According to Aristotle everything has a beginning and an end and the very first beginning is caused by the First Mover, pure intellect. The fifth element Quintessence⁵¹ (Akasha) is called aether by Aristotle. Aether stands for the unchanging substance moving in circles with which the material universe is filled. The aether has captivated natural philosophers until the arrival of Einstein. Einstein returns the aether to its original state, the vacuum, potential emptiness.

Aristotle develops a thinking system where one must distinguish between four different types of causes:

• The material cause (causa materialis) – What has changed?
• The moving cause (causa efficiens) – Who/what brought about the change?
• The formal cause (causa formalis) – With what result?
• The final cause (causa finalis) – With what purpose?

It is impossible to imagine what an enormous influence this system has had on current thinking. One now had to look for a material cause of everything. Through this God became a being with a purpose, the principle of sin arose (humans were the cause of failure and not the Gods) and one could only go one way, forward, toward the end (the Apocalypse). By taking hard matter as the basis for thinking it became difficult to think in waves. Everything is composed of hard particles that bounce like billiard balls. The consequence is that mechanics plays an important role in Western thinking.

The thinking world of Aristotle and especially Plato is adopted by Greek-speaking Jewish communities (e.g., Alexandria). From these communities the Christian faith is later sent out into the world. It is therefore not surprising that young Christian theology is strongly influenced by the Greek thinking world.

⁴⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato%27s_divided_line ⁵⁰ http://www.nyu.edu/pages/linguistics/courses/v610051/aristote.html ⁵¹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aether_%28classical_element%29

6. Creation

6.1 Introduction

In this chapter an attempt is made to describe the development of the five aspects over time. This chapter is a greatly simplified synthesis of Indian theory of the Tattvas, Lurianic Kabbalah⁵², David Wilcock’s theory⁵³ and natural philosophy insights about the zero-point field⁵⁴. Humans are a duality (Order (Male), Chaos (Female)) in which two new mirrored parts have emerged namely Spirit (Creator) and Soul (Potential) that can take up the work of unity anew on earth.

⁵² http://www.kabbalah-arizal.nl/einsof/1.htm ⁵³ http://www.divinecosmos.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=6&id=20&Itemid=36 ⁵⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-point_energy

6.2 Point, Unity

The basis is a self-contained rotating space/emptiness (nothing) in the form of a sphere. In the middle of the sphere is a point in which all energy (light) is concentrated. Within this sphere eruptions (consciousness) take place at fixed intervals. These eruptions rotate in the opposite direction from the sphere. Because of the rising and disappearing eruptions there is almost no equilibrium within the sphere.

6.3 Line, Duality (1st Creation)

One of these eruptions is so large that it leads its own life. Through rotation a division is made into two parts. These two parts move in opposite directions through each other. Within one unity the other unity develops. The central point gives energy to (illuminates) the two parts.

6.4 Triangle, Opposition (2nd Creation)

Two forces break loose from the duality. They become an opposition. With the help of this opposition a separation can be made. This separation can be named with many words (order & chaos, heaven & earth, light & dark, good & evil⁵⁵). In classical antiquity these forces are called air (wood) and fire. They form an opposition (2) and a unity (1) in the sense that they can completely cancel each other out and return to unity/emptiness, space, nothing.

⁵⁵ http://www.statenvertaling.net/bijbel/gene/1.html

6.5 Square, Power Dynamics

The two oppositions can also manifest as two powers, where order and chaos in many verbs (joining & uncoupling, surviving & adapting) are the poles.

6.6 Pentagram, The Human

The two oppositions are now applied to themselves. Four combinations emerge where two become themselves again (chaos/chaos, order/order) and two become mirror images of each other (order/chaos (potential, soul) & chaos/order (creation, spirit)). The system has thereby reproduced itself in humans, who are an image of the original Creator (the one).

These units can again reproduce themselves according to the process described above. In this process Potential (Soul) now plays the role of Unity that produces eruptions in the form of Ideas and Impulses.

With the help of the five aspects a model can now be made.

Order and Chaos are autonomous forces. They are each other’s opposition. They stand for giving & taking, production & consumption, male & female or for exploitation & innovation.

The opposition is resolved when giving and taking cancel each other out (are in equilibrium). In that case they form a Duality.

If there is no equilibrium an excess or deficit of Potential is created.

If there is a deficit the Potential can get help from its mirror image the Creation. This help comes in the form of insight. This insight is built up by gaining experience during innovation, taking or consuming. Through insight the Potential can transform itself.

The Creation functions as a repository of insights and ideas (Akasha, Wisdom). It can return the acquired insight to the Chaos and also independently gain inspiration by observing order.

If there is a deficit the Potential can generate new ideas. Ideas are converted by the Creation into seeds that grow in production and thereby remedy the deficit.

If there is an excess of Potential impulses are generated that stimulate consumption and thereby reduce the excess.

The Potential can also build up its own excess and return part of this excess in the form of resources (love) to order.

Finally Chaos can increase Potential by offering her passion.

7. The History of Western Civilization

7.1 Prehistory

In this chapter Western history is viewed with a cycle time of 250 years. Western civilization originates in Greece. The Greeks are able to engage in philosophy because they, forced by climate, must engage in barter trade (wine, olive oil). This trade is very successful. Through trade they have time to reflect and come into contact with other civilizations⁵⁶. Knowledge from Egypt, India and China is adopted by philosophers such as Pythagoras⁵⁷, Hippocrates and Heraclites. In Athens the democratic governance system is introduced. Through this the power of the authoritarian king is limited⁵⁸ so the state comes into a stable state.

Alexander the Great⁵⁹ (advised by Aristotle, student of Plato) expands Greek civilization over the then-known world. China barely escapes being conquered by him. The Romans combine the warfare of Alexander and the philosophy of the Greeks. They develop a system themselves that can govern a large empire (laws, delegation). Within Greek-Jewish communities Christianity emerges. In the 2nd and 3rd centuries A.D. the philosophy of Christianity is worked out by the apologists⁶⁰. These apologists

⁵⁶ http://www.friesian.com/greek.htm#why ⁵⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagoras ⁵⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_democracy#Ancient_Sumeria ⁵⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_the_great ⁶⁰ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_apologetics

connect Greek philosophy with the Jewish faith of a messiah⁶¹. After a period of persecution Emperor Constantine I legalizes Christianity in 313. In 325 he organizes the Council of Nicaea⁶² where 300 bishops discuss the most controversial subjects. Through the excellent Roman road system, the use of one uniform language (Latin and Greek) and the enormous efforts of traveling evangelists Christian faith spreads rapidly.

⁶¹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah ⁶² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Council_of_Nicaea

7.2 The Early Middle Ages

Between 450 and 700 the Chinese close their empire from the outside world for centuries by building enormous walls. This protection is intended to hold back the Mongols (the Huns). The protection is so effective that the Huns under the leadership of including Attila⁶³ must look for other areas to plunder. The Huns combine extreme skill in warfare with extreme cruelty. The Huns hunt along the wall toward the fragile Roman Empire which does not survive this blow. To escape the certain death of the Huns entire peoples flee (the migration period)⁶⁴.

⁶³ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attila_the_Hun ⁶⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrations_period

7.3 The New Order (700-950)

Through the absence of central Roman power the former barbarians get the opportunity to form their own territory. A completely new political and social infrastructure emerges. Regional rulers establish kingdoms in Italy (Ostrogoths), Spain (Visigoths), Portugal (Franks), France (Gauls), Germany (Germans) and England (Celts).

The Christian Church in Rome remains the only central power exercised through the bishops. The former barbarians integrate their own religion, which with the exception of the Germans⁶⁵ is largely based on Celtic⁶⁶ belief, into the Catholic faith. The great advantage for those in power is that secular power and church power come into one hand. The Celts and Germans, like the Huns, are originally a martial people. The consequence is that the Catholic faith takes on an extremely violent character.

⁶⁵ http://home.earthlink.net/~wodensharrow/imagenav.html ⁶⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celt

7.4 The High Middle Ages (950-1200)

The High Middle Ages (950-1200) are a period of peace and growth. The barbarians cultivate their newly acquired land and form their own states. The cathedral builders fix the old and new myth in stone (Gothic) and the monasteries copy the Bible, collect old myths and legends (Tristan and Isolde, Arthur and the Grail) and fuse Christian faith with barbarian belief. Unity in Christendom is emphasized by a joint attack on the unbelievers who hold the center of the new myth, Jerusalem (the Crusades).

7.5 The Late Middle Ages (1200-1450)

In this period the population has grown enormously. Food production cannot keep up with this growth. Great famine emerges. The states have expanded so much that they get in each other’s way. They fight long and hard for power. There is great climate change (extremely high temperatures⁶⁷) causing the plague to strike enormously. The Christian world falls into schism. Power is divided between the west (Rome) and the east (Byzantium). Rome holds intellectual power. The Bible determines the view of the world. The practice of science (curiosity) is almost forbidden. People limit themselves to interpreting (Scholasticism)⁶⁸ and copying the Bible.

In this time suffering is the basis of existence. This suffering is seen as a gift from God, a fate one must bear with joy. To ease the suffering of fellow humans one must follow the seven bodily works of Mercy. Six of these works are based on the words of Christ in the Gospel according to Matthew (“For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in. I was naked and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me” (Matthew 25, 35-36)). The seventh work, burying the dead, was introduced by Pope Innocent III (1198-1216).

⁶⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period ⁶⁸ http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholastiek

7.6 The Renaissance (1450-1700)

Around 1450 the printing press is invented. We have then arrived at the Renaissance⁶⁹. The spirit of the age is characterized as the Age of Discovery⁷⁰. After the dark middle ages⁷¹, in which the church had forbidden all science, people are extremely interested in investigating everything they could investigate. It is the time of the great voyages of discovery (Columbus, 1492). The earth is mapped. Knowledge and maps are multiplied through the printing press.

Art (Leonardo da Vinci) and science (Copernicus (1514)) explode. Both art and science take the standpoint of the observer. In art perspective is discovered. Both the telescope and the microscope are invented. Science begins to look with its own eyes (and no longer with the Bible). This produces insights completely contradictory to those preached by the church. The earth revolves around the sun. Only after a long and especially bloody struggle (Inquisition, burning stake) are the new insights accepted.

Religion (the Reformation, Luther (1517)) is again rooted in the old now translated into the vernacular texts and ideals. Through the printing press everyone can now read the Bible and especially interpret it themselves.

Knowledge in the Renaissance (rebirth) is again rooted in the knowledge of the ancient Greeks. The works of Plato and Aristotle have become available through contacts with the unbelieving Arabs.

⁶⁹ http://www.historyguide.org/earlymod/lecture1c.html ⁷⁰ http://www.historyguide.org/earlymod/lecture2c.html ⁷¹ http://www.historyguide.org/ancient/lecture24b.html

There was at that time a great need to convert souls everywhere it was possible (“to help”) and to support fellow Christians in the struggle against the unbelievers. To make this happen various expeditions were set up (crusades) to investigate everywhere in the world where Christians and unbelievers resided. To the great surprise of many the Western world turned out to be surrounded by unbelievers. Particularly in South America the unbelievers were brought to the true faith with gross violence.

The old known unbelievers (Islam) were constantly busy attacking the Western world. They were far too powerful and especially extremely wealthy (then gold now oil). There was therefore every reason to go on the attack. To carry out this attack in addition to courage (derived from the Teutonic and Celtic past) technology was needed in the field of war and especially navigation (maps, knowledge of weather and wind, navigation, large ships, food, anchorages).

Production at that time was in the hands of craftsmen (including artists). They are organized in the form of guilds⁷². These guilds provided work, training, care and insurance.

The Age of Discovery is followed by the Age of Exploitation. The carrying capacity of (wind-driven) navigation is used to conquer the world and transport its riches to the West.

⁷² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guild#Early_history

7.7 The Industrial Revolution (1700-1950)

In this time a new religion, empirical science, is born thanks to Kant. The inner (the subjective) is separated from the outer (the objective). The mechanization of thinking and production is brought to a high level of perfection. Workers are transformed into consumers. The material paradise comes to earth in the West.

The infrastructure of wind-driven navigation is combined with the infrastructure of steam engine-driven trains, oil-driven cars and airplanes and coal-driven turbines which make electricity and telecommunications possible. The earth is covered with an extremely fine network. Ultimately there is virtually nothing left to discover.

Like in the Renaissance the Age of Discovery is followed by an Age of Exploitation. In this period dominated especially by England the world is divided among the mighty. The developing countries are formed.

7.8 The Great Crisis (1950- 2200)

Objective science is losing its power. Not truth but self-knowledge (belief) becomes important. The work of scientists, now called knowledge workers, is taken over by reasoning and search machines. They resist just as fiercely as workers in the previous period.

Humanity has become greatly doubtful (the Postmoderns⁷³) and senses an approaching end (the Apocalypse, The Club of Rome, Global Warming) coming. The boundaries have been exceeded at many points (Environment, Multinationals) and are exceeded by many (Tourism, Immigrants, Terrorists, Youth). Irony and satire flourish. One can escape the sometimes cruel reality by surrendering to drugs, alcohol and virtual reality.

The unbelievers still play an important role (Islamic terrorists). It seems as if a new crusade is being waged. Like in the Renaissance they must again be converted (helped). Now they must be converted to the faith of free world trade, Western democracy, Materialism and especially Capitalism.

The unbelievers still collectively attack the West (the Middle East). Additionally they try as individuals (Immigrants) in many ways to break into the Western stronghold to be able to profit from the materialistic paradise. Because they produce more children than Westerners as a matter of course the democratic power comes into their hands. This gives the existing population an enormous sense of powerlessness resulting in all kinds of populist counter-movements (Pim Fortuyn).

The old cultures (Japan, China and India), the East, come to life. Interest in these old cultures increases enormously in the West. Unlike the West, which is abandoning capitalism (Sustainability), the old cultures see the point of capitalism. They copy everything that can be copied and supply (for as long as it lasts) cheap labor causing production centers to move eastward at a rapid pace and greatly weaken the West. The old cultures rapidly transform into economic superpowers that increasingly overshadow the superpower America. Western society emerged because the Chinese closed their culture with walls against the invasion of barbarians. These barbarians ended the Roman Empire around 450 and slowly developed into a materialism-driven unity (the EU & the US). Even India and China, the countries where the inner played such a large role have ultimately succumbed to external capitalism.

⁷³ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postmodernism

8. The Industrial Revolution in Detail (1740-Present)

8.1 Introduction

In this main section the cycle time is shortened to 50 years. This cycle time corresponds to the so-called Kondratiev cycle⁷⁴. This cycle concerns technological innovation.

The Industrial Revolution begins with the mechanization of the textile industry (1740-1790) in England. There the concept of the cotton mill emerges which develops over time into the modern factory.

The French Revolution (1789) brings down the aristocracy and gives the bourgeoisie the opportunity to, in the form of the industrialist, take power in society. People strive for equality, freedom and brotherhood.

These industrialists exercise their power initially through the factory. The factory and the accompanying mechanization destroys the middle class (the craftsmen, the guilds) creating an enormous amount of poor (the proletariat). These take action in many ways or are involved in actions (democracy, liberalism, communism, socialism).

The solution to the great discontent lies in the transformation of the proletariat into the consumer and citizen. By introducing democracy the mass gets the opportunity to have its voice heard. Much more important is the realization of consumer society and mass media. The majority can, especially compared to the non-Western world, live in wealth and after work enjoy all kinds of entertainment on their couch in their own home (bread and circuses). The ideals of the French Revolution are realized and everyone seems satisfied.

Between 1940-1990 a turning point occurs. The consumer/citizen becomes mature and begins to make demands on producers. Individualism and the desire for freedom swell. People have had enough of sameness and want uniqueness. Self-creation and self-doing becomes the issue.

At this moment, 250 years later, we have arrived at a completely comparable phase as at the start of the industrial revolution in 1740. The producers must give way to the new power holders who can unite the purchasing and voting power of consumers/citizens. The tools for this are available in sufficient measure (the Internet).

⁷⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

8.2 1740-1790, Factory, Mechanization, Steam Engine, Textile

This period ends with the French Revolution (Equality, Brotherhood, Freedom, 1789). The aristocracy has had its longest time and is overthrown by the people. The nobility, which made no contribution to society and wasted enormous sums on extravagant parties and castles, had even aroused the anger of the middle class (the bourgeoisie). It must make way for the rising industrialists. The old institutions (especially the dogmatic church) hold on for a long time but their time has come too.

Between 1740 and 1790 the textile industry is mechanized. In 1742 the first cotton mills open. In 1762 the spinning jenny (Hargreaves), a hand-operated mechanical loom, is invented. In 1769 the first steam engine becomes operational (Watt). The spinning jenny is first replaced by the water-powered spinning mule (1779, Crompton). Six years later (1785) Cartwright replaces the water mill with the steam engine (power loom). From the mill the cooperation concept of the factory (the mechanization of cooperation) has emerged.

In philosophy mechanization of thinking is introduced (Kant, Kritik der reinen Vernunft (1781)). The senses and emotions confuse humans. One must be based on mechanical reasoning (logic), facts, repeated experiments and objective observation. This philosophy forms the basis for modern science and scientific management (Taylor) which becomes the cornerstone of the industrial revolution.

8.3 1790-1840, Railroad, Telegraph, Photography, Programming

In this period the new carrying capacity is developed. The world is rapidly covered with railroad lines. These lines facilitate the spread of the industrial revolution. They determine the rise and fall of cities and new industries. The rail system has become the inspiration for many later infrastructures (Highways, Telecommunications, Electricity, Gas, Water).

In this time the foundation is also laid for today’s communication infrastructure (Telegraph (Morse, 1835)), the entertainment industry (Photography, Daguerre, 1839), the computer industry (Jaguard, programmable loom (1801), Babbage, programmable calculator (1833)), chemistry (Lavoisier, Traité élémentaire de chimie (1789), Dalton, atomic theory (1808)).

The philosopher Georg Wilhelm Hegel develops the dialectical method (Wissenschaft der Logik, 1816). By formulating a thesis and antithesis one can find the synthesis. With this he wants to bring the contradiction between objectivity and subjectivity into harmony and thereby provide a basis for thinking.

8.4 1840-1890, Intensity, Energy, Electricity, Chemistry, Movement

This period is characterized by energy production (electricity, discharge, turbines, power plants), inorganic chemistry (dynamite (Nobel 1863)) and the steel industry (coal, furnaces). The telegraph is improved by Graham Bell (1874) to the telephone. Photography is made moving by the invention of the camera (Lumiere, 1895) and the film (Eastman, 1899). The first cinema opens in Paris (Lumiere, 1895).

The philosophers in these periods lay the foundation for several new social movements. The philosopher Karl Marx argues in his book Das Kapital (1867) that history has a pattern. This pattern will ultimately result in equality for everyone, the classless society. To bring about this equality the underclass (the proletariat) must rise up. Capitalism will ultimately collapse under its own weight because it destroys its own carrying capacity, the middle class (the craftsmen). From Marxism socialism and communism emerge.

The philosopher John Stuart Mill publishes the book On Liberty in 1859. In this book he assumes the principle that everyone must have the freedom to pursue their own happiness. The striving is limited by the amount of harm others suffer from this freedom striving (the harm-principle). The objective measure is the optimal number of people who have reached the state of happiness (the greatest amount of happiness altogether). Mill is as an economist a great advocate of the free market. The masses (democracy) and not power determine what is good. He is the founder of liberalism. Together with his wife (Taylor) he is a great advocate of the emancipation of women.

8.5 1890-1940, Standards, Mass Production, Mass Media, Language

In this period mass production and consumer society is set in motion. The foundation for this period was laid by the availability of energy and mechanization techniques. The first step is taken by Henry Ford who with his assembly line sends millions of identical Model Ts into the world. The basic concept of this period is standardization. The theory (Scientific Management) was developed by Frederick Winslow Taylor. In this period mass media also emerges (TV (1928), Radio (1919)).

Saussure (Course de linguistique generale, 1916) is the father of structuralism and modern linguistics. The structuralists are fascinated by the structure behind language (alphabet, sentence structure, production rules). They view the world as a language system and try through analysis to find the underlying system. From the movement of the structuralists among other things computer language (Chomsky), the ideal logical language, emerged.

Husserl is the father of phenomenology (Logische Untersuchungen (1900)). He is looking for the language of the inner, consciousness. For this the separation between object and subject must be bridged again.

8.6 1940-1990, Creativity, Do-it-Yourself, Appliance, PC

This period is characterized by creativity. The PC (the I-computer) has provided an initial impetus for this. This period is a reaction against the pursuit of equality in the previous period. Through enormous miniaturization, mobile technology and ever-improving user interaction (operation) more and more consumers carry out activities that were previously carried out by very specialized devices and specialists. This is the era in which innovations become visible that will later be combined into a new carrying capacity.

9. The Information Age

9.1 Introduction

The Information Age is viewed with a cycle time of 10 years. This cycle is called the Juglar cycle⁷⁵, the business cycle.

The end of the equality/mass production phase produces the perfect objective mass producer, the computer. Despite various management measures (methods) the expert (here called programmer) does not let himself be managed. He acts as an inventor (self-applying) who likes to constantly take up new developments (1960-1970).

In the management period (1970-1980) there is a tendency to want to control everything yourself. The producer (especially IBM) has the monopoly and wants to maintain it at all costs. Its clone, Microsoft, tries to do the same.

In the period 1970-1980 there is a great intensification of the self-stream. It shows itself in the emergence of the PC, the explosive development of the creative music sector, the end of communist unified states in Eastern Europe and the emergence of individualism.

⁷⁵ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle#Juglar_cycle

The last period (1990-2000) is dominated by the Internet. The individualist (the consumer) gets, especially through cooperation with like-minded people (community, cooperative), power in hand (chain reversal). The producer slowly fades away and must conform to customer wishes.

Around 2000 a new carrying capacity is formed in which self-doing and creativity are an important issue.

9.2 The All Purpose Computer (1950-1960)

The carrying capacity for this cycle, the computer, emerged in 1950. The computer is derived from the mill, the factory. It has a central processing unit (operating system), a storehouse (the database), a reader/input (for cards) and a printer/output (the loom). The computer was initially intended to regulate mass production of calculating (compute). Making lists and tables was very labor intensive.

The first commercial computer, the ERA 1101, was built in 1950 by Engineering Research Associates of Minneapolis. The basic architecture of today’s computer was developed by IBM around 1960. For good reason IBM called it the 360. This code 360 stood for allround/all-purpose. The computer should be able to do everything itself. The 360 architecture (and IBM) dominated the market for decades.

9.3 The Computer Language (1960-1970)

Specialists could only get going once the coding of the computer was brought to a higher level. Languages (Algol, Fortran and Cobol) and associated compilers were developed for special application areas (Science, Industry and Administration). IBM made a failed attempt to standardize all known languages (PL1).

Instead of fewer languages more and more languages emerged (now +/- 2500). The most influential language is Algol (1960). It is the mother of languages such as Simula, Pascal, C, C++ and eventually JAVA (1990). In this latest language the most important developments of the language period are incorporated. It is now a worldwide standard.

It was soon realized that program structures contained parts that could be reused by other programmers (the subroutine, component, the object). From this insight software libraries grew, packages (very large components, SAP), object-oriented programming (an object is a component), architectures and infrastructural intermediate layers (e.g., Client/Server).

The ideal cooperation form of the factory, assembling from components, resulted in development lines, software factories and currently the service-oriented architecture (SOA).

9.4 The All Purpose Method (1970-1980)

Programmers were directed by analysts. These analysts analyzed business processes based on methods and techniques developed by Frederick Winslow Taylor & Frank Gilbreth (1911, Time & Motion Studies). In the first phase human actions were analyzed at a very deep detail level (Therbligs, standard hand movement). Human actions were increasingly standardized (input/output, button pressing). Through this analyses became increasingly focused on business processes and later on value chains.

Around 1970 the work of programmers began to be standardized. Many competing building methodologies emerged (e.g., Structured Programming (Dijkstra, 1969), Nassi-Shneiderman (1972), Yourdon (1976), Jackson (1975)). The idea behind these techniques largely came from knowledge of arranging and managing trains (switches, scheduling, semaphores). The programming methods were ultimately standardized in the Unified Modeling Language (1994, UML).

IBM came to market in 1968 with one of the first database management systems, IMS. The first database was organized hierarchically. Later they were organized according to a network structure, relational, (IBM, Codd, System R/DB2 (1978)). The database became a dominant controlling instrument. The ideal was to describe all data of an enterprise in one data model (Corporate Datamodel) and store it in one central database.

A meta-database (a Repository, Dictionary) was designed that would contain all descriptions of data and processes (meta-data). From this repository all databases and programs could be generated with one button press (generator). The programmer had thereby become unnecessary and could be completely replaced by the analyst/designer. Despite many efforts this ideal was never realized because the programmer does not let himself be put in a straitjacket. He is primarily an explorer/inventor who likes to constantly try new things.

To get more people to work together project management was used. This approach was developed around 1900 by Frederick Winslow Taylor and Henry Gantt. Later the project management methods were standardized worldwide in Prince2.

The building techniques were extended with design approaches (JSD, NIAM) which were especially based on the relational database. The method was completed by James Martin. His all-purpose method, Information Engineering (IE, 1980), was the capstone of methodical development. It was provided with a repository and graphical tools (IEF, Knowledgeware). Through this automation was ultimately automated.

In 1976 a protocol was developed on behalf of the U.S. Department of Defense (DARPA) (TCP/IP) that was supposed to make it possible to make the defense infrastructure invulnerable to a (Russian) attack. The idea was to send packets of information via multiple paths that could be linked together at the place of arrival (note the analogy with trains). The network was initially used by scientists (DARPANET, later Internet).

In 1980 the first version of the standard SGML (Standard Generalized Markup Language) was published. SGML comes from an internal standard of IBM, GML (1969). With the help of SGML documents (content) can be standardized.

9.5 The PC, Self-Expression (1980-1990)

On August 12, 1981 IBM launched the IBM PC. The Personal Computer was initially seen as an extension of the central computer (the mainframe). To facilitate this extension a new architecture, the client (PC)/server (Mainframe) architecture was developed. The PC functioned as a slave of the server.

The PC market was soon monopolized by Microsoft, just as IBM dominated the mainframe. The two monopolies fought their battle at the server level (OS/2 vs Windows). Because the software of both parties could not work together the customer was forced to choose one party. This battle was ultimately won by Microsoft. They dealt IBM a heavy blow. The young slave defeated the old master brilliantly by using his own practices.

The special thing about the PC was that unlike the terminals connected to the mainframe it had a graphical user interface (GUI). The terminals connected to the mainframe (dumb) were only suitable for displaying forms (input) and lists (output). The GUI made the PC ideally suited for developing games.

To give employees of (especially) large companies knowledge of automation PC-private projects were set up. One could buy their own PC for very little money. Many employees, encouraged by their children who wanted to play games, bought their own PC. On this PC MSX-BASIC (MicroSoft eXtended – Beginners All-purpose Symbolic Instruction Code) was installed.

Employees began in their spare time with the help of BASIC to program business applications. These applications were considered illegal by the Central IT department. End users had to wait quietly for central automation planning. In all kinds of ways the “illegal” applications were “illegally” linked to copies of central databases. Own data was added to these copies. The consequence of what later came to be called End-user-computing (EUC) was that the order that had just been achieved at central level was seriously disrupted. The users had revolted. To quell the unrest responsibility for automation was decentralized (Information managers).

To meet the enormous demand for data Data warehouses were built. Additionally attempts were repeatedly made to link the decoupled software systems (Middleware). The order that was thought to have been achieved in 1970-1980 was completely undone in ten years.

The computer and the rechargeable battery became increasingly smaller. This made the PC portable (Laptop, PDA). It was no longer necessary to work and play in one place, the workplace. Through a merger of the PC with the mobile phone it became possible to collaborate anywhere. Besides business software the mobile phone was also provided with creative and entertainment possibilities (photo, film, game, music (MP3), radio (iPod), TV). After many battles the PC was ultimately transformed from the slave of the mainframe to the ideal tool for self-expression.

9.6 The Internet, Community (1990-2000)

On September 25, 1990 Tim Berners-Lee working at CERN published his first version of a simplified version of SGML which he called HTML. The H in HTML stands for hypertext (a network structure). HTML was intended to make it easier to reference scientific documents that were distributed via the then current scientific network Internet.

Christmas 1990 Berners-Lee created a computer program he called the World Wide Web. With the program one could read hypertext that was stored at a location (characterized by a Uniform Resource Locator, URL). This program (later called a browser) was released in March 1991 as open source (free) to the world.

The browser was first commercially used by the company Netscape. The product was such a success that others and thus also the monopolist Microsoft very quickly had to reverse course (Explorer) to not miss the boat.

An important consequence was that everyone (and not just business and science) could use the Internet infrastructure. Initially the most important application was Email. After that websites sprouted like mushrooms. There was a belief in an ever-growing economy (the long boom) and a new economy (Electronic-Commerce, EC). By developing a website anyone could become a millionaire. Everything was given an E (E-Learning, E-HRM etc). Because the economy was at the top of the Kondratiev cycle there was an enormous amount of capital available that was poured into hundreds of new ventures that would all conquer the world. The hype, stimulated by stock analysts, drove the economy to an extreme peak after which due in part to the attack on the world trade center (9-11-2000) the E-commerce bubble exploded and the stock markets fell sharply. The decline of the Kondratiev cycle strengthened this process causing the economy to enter a deep recession.

Ultimately it turned out that the website (the digital folder) was not the end but the beginning of new development, chain reversal. This development would completely turn the existing business world upside down. It was not the entrepreneur who was going to profit from the Internet but the consumer. The self-creating individualist now got the power completely in hand. He became even more powerful when he began to cooperate with like-minded people. The cooperative (now called community) was given new life.

The digital folder opened the door of the consumer to all similar producers. Everyone could at any time find out themselves (supported by a search engine (Google) or price comparison) where they could best and most cheaply satisfy their needs. This gave rise to enormous price competition that forced producers to take action. Most chose the old familiar solution, rationalization/cost savings (make the same, standardization). As a result unique products now closely resembled each other making it increasingly difficult to tempt the consumer.

The only sales argument that remained was price which led to even greater price competition. To break this vicious circle there was heavy merging, acquiring and outsourcing reducing diversity in many industries even further. A large number of industries (and their business processes) are slowly but surely on the way to becoming a commodity (a building block) that can be incorporated into the newly forming carrying capacity. What many companies did not see was that due to the enormous number of available consumers every niche became an attractive market at the global level (the long-tail).

In 1994 Berners-Lee founded the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C). The consortium aims to protect the interests of the community (rather than business). In the past standards were developed by special committees which after long negotiations produced a paper document and more or less hoped that industry would follow these standards. If a monopolist failed to get the committee to manipulate it went its own way. W3C chose a different course, that of open source. Not the paper standard but the standard cast in software was offered to the community. This standard was adopted by an enormous majority which forced the monopolists (IBM, Microsoft) to (often eventually) follow. W3C has produced hundreds of standards. With the launch of the W3C standard XML (Nov. 1999) the new phase, carrying capacity, has started.

9.7 The Do-It-Yourself Infrastructure (2000-2010)

In the period 1950-2000 almost all formalizable processes on earth have often been automated multiple times. Sometimes these formalizations (components) have been copied by others or even many. These components formed a more or less coherent network (a carrying capacity, an infrastructure, a (spider)web).

Initially networks were formed at the business level. Later they were incorporated into packages used by multiple businesses. A package like SAP is an example of a very widely supported logistical business application. The PC has supported the development of carrying capacities for consumers (e.g., Microsoft Office). Package suppliers let customers pay for software (license), protected their software with patents, kept the software code secret and blocked linking their software.

Due to the greatly increased communication possibilities of the Internet individuals came together who set themselves the goal of breaking the monopolies of major software manufacturers. They make public (visible, readable) packages (open source) that are made available free of charge.

Participants in the open source movement often worked for a software producer and developed the open source in their spare time. Through the connection between regular producers and the open source movement components flowed from the closed domain to the open domain. Since the development of open source took place publicly there was lively discussion about the quality of the components (peer review) and the value of the components for the whole. A large number of these open source packages (e.g., Linux, Mozilla) have rapidly grown into international (widely used) standards.

To get a widely supported carrying capacity broad agreements must be made about the interface. In the first phase of automation the interface was located in the computer. Through (sometimes multiple) translation (compiling) the components were ultimately connected (linked) at the level of the operating system and machine code (the language of the computer).

Over time the interface has slowly shifted upward. Increasingly components were moved below the interface (infrastructure, middleware). A major problem was that the bottom of the interface (operating system, network) was constantly changing. These adjustments at the bottom had major consequences for the top. Changes from bottom to top had to be made again and again. With old software this was not possible (the spaghetti mess of the inventor/programmer) or not desirable (too expensive) causing large parts of the software infrastructure of companies to become isolated (legacy systems).

Around the year 2000 the main building blocks for a new carrying capacity are known. The Internet protocol (IP) is the standard for telecommunications, JAVA the standard programming language, UML⁷⁶ the standard programming method, Prince2⁷⁷ the standard for project management, Google the standard for searching and HTML the standard for content definition. This latter was not yet suitable for formally describing messages (data structures). HTML was therefore formalized in November 1999 by W3C into the language XML⁷⁸, a self-describing data definition language.

With the launch of XML the carrying capacity phase has begun which will determine the development of technology over the coming ten years. More and more components (payment, logistics) will be brought under the new infrastructure. The development of the infrastructure will not take place by software manufacturers. They will be overtaken by the open source movement, which will combine higher quality with extremely low prices.

While existing components are merged into an invisible sub-layer (payment, delivery, …) on top of this layer a new infrastructure becomes visible which will focus especially on facilitating self-service. In all sectors of society this self-service shows itself. Because technology becomes easier to use and also increasingly cheaper the consumer is doing it all himself. He sells his own house, renovates it himself, finances it himself, puts together his own vacation, makes his own diagnosis when sick, buys the medicines he thinks he needs himself, finds his own partner, writes his own book (blog), takes his own photos and films and sells his products himself to the collective via a public marketplace. The technology that makes all this possible is now summarized under the term Web 2.0.⁷⁹

⁷⁶ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Modeling_Language ⁷⁷ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince2 ⁷⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extensible_Markup_Language ⁷⁹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_2

10. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles

In 1931 Edward R. Dewey⁸⁰ is appointed chief economics analyst of the U.S. Department of Commerce. He is tasked with finding out what the cause is of the economic crisis that struck America two years earlier. He researches economic cycles. In 1942 Dewey founds the Foundation for the Study of Cycles (FSC)⁸¹. The goal of this organization is to study all possible cycles for which reliable data can be found.

⁸⁰ E.R. Dewey, O. Mandino: Cycles, The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events (Hawthorn Books, Inc., New York, 1971) ⁸¹ http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cri.html

Dewey not only researched isolated cycles but also the relationship between cycles. He discovered that the relationship between the periodicities of the cycles is 1/2, 1/3, 2 and 3 times. The explanation was recently found in the theory of non-linear systems. These systems produce, just like music, harmonics⁸² (overtones).

That non-linear systems (such as the solar system) produce overtones has also been noticed by others. In antiquity Pythagoras⁸³ formulated his theory of the harmony of the spheres. Kepler⁸⁴ (1571-1630), an astronomer from the time of Copernicus, found a connection between the orbits of the planets and the harmonies in music (Harmonices Mundi, 1619).

Recently Ray Tomes⁸⁵, an American statistician, discovered the same relationships. He experimented with the harmonic series of prime numbers (2,4,6,8,.. – 3,6,9,12,..). At certain points these series come together. At the number 249⁸⁶ for example the harmonic series of 2, 3, 4, 6, 12 and 24 come together (2X12, 3X8, 4X6). The numbers where these series most come together correspond to the notes in music. It is also striking that each prime number has its own function. The numbers 2 and 3 form the basis. They generate a new cyclic structure whose overtones can be explained by the next prime number, 5. This process continues indefinitely in principle.

Based on this structure Tomes calculated, assuming one non-linear system, various short and long cycles and compared them to FSC data. His calculations checked out wonderfully. His conclusion is that “the universe consists of a (standing) wave which develops harmonics and each of these waves does the same”. Reality seems to be an endless self-referencing system.

Tomes’ conclusion that the universe is a standing wave was drawn many centuries ago (2000 B.C.). In Chinese culture the life wave is called the Tao and in Indian culture the Svara.

⁸² http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonic ⁸³ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagoras ⁸⁴ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johannes_Kepler ⁸⁵ http://ray.tomes.biz/maths.html ⁸⁶ The numbers Tomes was looking for are long known and are called highly composite numbers (http://mathworld.wolfram.com/HighlyCompositeNumber.html). These numbers occur extremely frequently in all kinds of areas where one is looking for the possibility to make an optimal number of divisions. Examples are the hour (60), the day (24), the year (360).

11. The Standing Wave

Based on the insights of Ray Tomes we can now update the cyclic models from China, India and Greece.

In the first picture we see a cycle generator. This generator rotates at a certain speed. The faster the generator rotates the higher the frequency of the waves. The generator can rotate clockwise or counterclockwise. In the picture it rotates counterclockwise. The generator

produces cyclic waves. Unlike particles waves can be added together. The effect of this addition is shown in the 250 year cycle. The waves follow the pattern of the other wave.

The generator passes through five stages corresponding to the five stages in the Sheng cycle. The blue stage, order, goes up. The white stage, center, goes down. The green stage, solidarity compresses and the red stage, chaos, expands. The effect of up and down, compression and expansion and the rotating generator is a spiral (See the picture of the Anu in chapter 4).

Long-term waves with low frequency (e.g., the solar system) influence short-term waves with high frequency (e.g., humans or even faster an atom). Sometimes the waves have the same aspect (yellow, yellow, yellow). We call this conjunction. When there is a conjunction the effect is amplified. For example this happened around 1960 when the 50-year wave of the Kondratiev cycle combined with the 10-year wave of the Juglar. Even stronger effects can occur when the 250-year culture wave combines with the 50-year Kondratiev wave and the 10-year Juglar wave. Such a conjunction occurred around 1790 (The creation of the United States and the French Revolution, 3x green).

12. The Updated Cycle

12.1 Introduction

A slow wave can also interfere with an underlying faster wave. There is then a combination of two aspects (e.g., Blue, order and red Chaos). What the interference accomplishes can be read from the Sheng cycle or the Wu Cycle. We will first update both of these cycles.

12.2 The Sheng Cycle

The five aspects are now called Plan (Wood), Practice (Fire), Boundary (Earth), Potential (Water) and Possibility (Metal).

• Plan (Expect, Reason, Think) – In Spring the seeds push through the earth. They struggle upward. They have a goal and a unidirectional direction. One projects one’s expectation toward the future. This is also the realm of thinking. Words that were images are strung together in a chain and form sentences.
• Practice (Act) – In Summer fire reigns. It is a time full of heat and passion. The sense of direction from Spring has disappeared and everything grows in all directions (expansion). Nature produces at full capacity and one can consume without problems. The plants drop their seeds.
• Boundary (Maintain Balance) – At the end of Summer just before Autumn a period occurs in which everything is in equilibrium. Nature stands still for a moment. There is harvest and part of the harvest is stored to get through fall and winter. It is also the time of death. If one cannot cross the boundary life stops.
• Potential (Value, Feel, Empathy) – In Fall the earth is prepared for Spring. The leaves fall, decompose and are converted into earth. They form the food base (value, resources) for the seeds. It rains a lot and temperatures drop. Humans and animals go inside.
• Possibility (Imagine, Conception, Idea, Intuition) – Winter is the time for contemplation (imagination). To feed and warm oneself one uses the supplies that have been laid in. One makes many plans (design, concept, idea) and everything seems possible. As spring approaches one must get to work again and it is time to choose what one is really going to do.

In the inner circle is the controlling Ko cycle.

• Delivering – The Potential can control the Plan by delivering more or less resources.
• Trying – Possibility can control Practice by trying more or fewer ideas in practice.
• Setting norms – Plan can control the Boundary by tightening or loosening boundaries (norms).
• Learning – The Boundary can offer Possibilities by indicating where one previously crossed the boundary. This is about learning from the past.
• Assessing – Practice can control Potential by assessing resources for their usefulness in the production process.

12.3 The Wu Cycle

The five aspects are now called Rules (Wood), Practice (Fire), Carrying Capacity (Earth), Emotions (Water) and Image (Metal).

The great problem with the counterclockwise cycle is that the metaphor of the seasons does not apply. We cannot imagine what it means that spring comes after summer. To describe the cycle we must use other correspondences. In principle this cycle unlike the (male, sun) Sheng cycle, which is mainly concerned with the outside world is the cycle of (female, moon) inner space. To not get completely confused the Fire aspect (Practice) has not changed. We begin our story with the same text.

• Practice (Diversity, Apply) – In Summer fire reigns. It is a time full of heat and passion. The sense of direction from Spring has disappeared and everything grows in all directions (apply, diversity). Nature produces at full capacity and one can consume without problems. The plants drop their seeds.

In this aspect the seeds are seen as an infrastructure (DNA) that unfolds in many ways. The active side of humans stands for the ego driven by passion and ultimately can become so passionate that there is addiction. This addiction can only be stopped by the emotions through a revolutionary reversal of behavior caused by a dramatic event.

• Rules (Equality, Standardization) – Wood stands for giving direction, going one way. The expansion of practice is made one. A structure, a model, rules are sought that make diversity equal. This aspect stands for thinking, expectation and hope. The need for rules and control can get out of hand. In that case the flexibility of the carrying capacity can help (simplify).
• Image (Uniqueness, Inspiration) – Metal draws inward. We go from the outside world to the inside world. The rules, the model evoke an image and this image is unique (“a picture paints a thousand words”). The image of a string captures the entire super-string theory. This aspect stands not only for image but also for the self (the unique side of humans), belief (in one’s ability) and fantasy/imagination. The fantasy can get out of hand which can lead to lies and delusions. In that case practice can ensure that one has feet on the ground again.
• Emotion (Solidarity, Insight, Gathering, Cooperating, Resource, Resilience) – We have now arrived at the level of emotions, feelings and the unconscious. We go even deeper and arrive at what Gendlin⁸⁷ calls the felt-sense. Images evoke feelings in the body (I feel it in my water (=kidneys)). One gains insight. These feelings can work two ways. One finds something/someone attractive or repulsive. If one finds something/attractive one wants to belong to it hence this aspect is also linked to the other, the others, the group and the masses. When linked to the other we are talking about love & hate and cooperation (solidarity) & struggle. The other presents itself as a resource or is used as a resource. When one is part of a mass (a wave, a movement, water) the emotions become stronger (think of a football match) and eventually the mass controls the emotions.

The last metaphor that applies to this aspect is that of the spring (resilience), which is stretched by passion (fire) and too much regulation (power, wood) and at a certain moment is pulled so tight that it springs back to its original position. This is about aggression and impulsivity that arise when emotions are under stress. In such a case rules must be applied (control) to restore calm.

• Carrying Capacity (Flexibility, Combining, Carrying Capacity, Boundary) – Earth stands for center, flexibility, balance and equilibrium. It is the place, the carrying capacity, the infrastructure on which one can build. All resources collected in the previous phase are combined and provided with a boundary. Too much equilibrium leads to stagnation. In that case one can use fantasy to become loose again.

12.4 Interference

When two cycles influence each other with different aspects we call that interference. The effect of the interference can be read by taking one of the cycles and finding the relationship. An example: the interference yellow (uniqueness)/red (chaos) is called invention or exploration. It occurs during the years 1960-1970 where a yellow upper wave with a periodicity of 50 years comes into contact with a red lower wave with a periodicity of 10 years. There is a lot of experimentation during that time.

If we combine the three cycles we can cast a look into the future. From 1950 onwards the longest cycle (250 years) that we have looked at is in a white state (See Chapter 7). This means there is a strong movement toward the center, toward coherence and infrastructure (e.g., the Internet). The fifty-year wave from 2000 to 2050 is green (See Chapter 8). The combination of white and green concerns the preservation/gathering of resources to be able to use them again later. At the level of the ten-year wave we then see the following combinations emerge:

• 2000-2010: Development of new infrastructures (Do-it-yourself, Do-it-together)
  • See Chapter 9.
• 2010-2020: Revolution (Green/Red)
• 2020-2030: Delivery of new resources (Green/Blue)
• 2030-2040: New combinations of resources (Green/Yellow)
• 2040-2050: Enormous upheaval (Green/Green)
• 2050-2060: Integration (Green/White)
• 2060-2070: A new global coherence comes about

From Cycles to Coherence: A Logical Development of the Cycle Model (2006–2026)

1. Introduction: The Need for Cyclic Models

Human experience and interpretation of change historically alternate between linear narrative and cyclic patterns. Unlike linear frameworks that posit a clear beginning and end, cyclic models describe repeating phases without ultimate telos — common in socio-political theory, ecology, and cognitive science. In classical historiography, this is reflected in cyclical views of societal rise and fall and recurrent patterns in human affairs. For example, ancient Chinese historical philosophy treated dynastic rise and decline as part of a repeating mandate of Heaven rather than linear progress. Wikipedia

In the blog “The History of Cyclic Thinking,” cyclic perspectives across cultures — from Native American wheels to Indian breath cycles and Greek revisions — are documented as sustained patterns of human sense-making rather than isolated historical artifacts. Constable

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2. Classical and Philosophical Roots: Pattern, Return, and Recurrence

Across epochs, cycles emerge as explanatory schemas:

• Ancient history and non-Western thought: Pre-modern traditions often conceived time as recursive rather than linear. This emerges in historiography where “world periods” repeat analogue to cosmic patterns. dbnl.org
• Early modern social cycle theories: Long cycles in world politics, such as George Modelski’s Long Cycles thesis, identified recurring hegemony patterns roughly every century in global politics, framing recurrence as structural, not accidental. Wikipedia
• Sociological cycle theory: In sociology, cycles describe social transitions and generational patterns — from the Strauss-Howe Fourth Turning to demographic and power cycles — situating history in phases rather than lines. Wikipedia

These foundational cycles are methodological ancestors to modern adaptive and systemic interpretations.

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3. Systems Thinking and Adaptive Cycles

The adaptive cycle concept from ecological systems thinking, formalized by C.S. Holling and extended in Panarchy theory, provided a rigorous template for understanding how systems repeat through four phases: exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization. ecologyandsociety.org+1

Holling’s articulation, initially ecological, was recognized as applicable across domains — social systems, economies, institutions — based on the observation that systems alternate between phases of stability and change. The adaptive cycle encapsulates resilience — the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize — conceptualizing change as structured, not random.

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4. From Ecology to Cognitive and Social Models

Your early work translated adaptive models into a broader Paths of Change framework — introducing multiple worldview perspectives and treating cycles as relational and dynamic patterns of interpretation. This moves beyond describing repeating events toward understanding structural mechanisms that generate them.

Via paths like sensory, mythic, social, and unity worldviews, these patterns account for how systems experience and respond to change. Contrary to static historicism, this model emphasizes contextual dynamics rather than fixed conclusions.

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5. Recognizing Resonance and Coherence (2014–2023)

Between 2014 and 2023, your trajectory shifted from pattern recognition toward coherence and phase relations. Rather than seeing cycles as repeating phases in isolation, the focus turned to how elements within and across cycles synchronize, forming stable relationships through resonance.

Resonance is central in complex systems, where interacting oscillators can achieve synchronization — a phenomenon widely studied in dynamical systems and neuroscience. For example, recurrence analysis shows how complex system behaviors return to similar states (a kind of generalized cyclicity) in phase space and can synchronize under interaction. arXiv

This recognition, reflected in your blog corpus, reframes cyclic patterns not as mere recurrence but as integrative processes enabling coherent structure across domains.

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6. Operationalizing the Model: From Patterns to Tools (2023–2025)

As the model matured, practical and operational instruments were introduced:

• 19-layer Resonant Stack: A multi-layer architecture mapping systemic oscillations from fundamental physical levels (nilpotent kernel) through neural and social scales. Constable
• Ω-Loop and coherence diagnostics: Tools to manage transitions between phases and evaluate systemic alignment, applying adaptive cycle logic to both social and technological systems.

This reflects a move from descriptive cycle recognition toward design and intervention — enabling users to act within cycles, not merely interpret them.

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7. Towards Coherence Engineering: 2026 and Beyond

The most recent articulation, exemplified in Beyond the Wild Pendulum Lies the End of Separation, posits a historical threshold in 2026, where the meta-cycle of fragmentation gives way to resonant coherence. Constable

Here, traditional bipolar oscillations (e.g., subject/object, conflict/consensus) are replaced by phase-locked resonance, aligned with modern resonance interpretations in complex adaptive systems and neural synchrony studies. In neuroscience, synchronization across frequencies correlates with integrated perception — a conceptual parallel to macro-scale coherence. arXiv

This redefines cycle theory not as returning to the start but as integration toward stable multi-domain coherence.

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8. Synthesis: A Meta-Cycle of Theory and Practice

The development traced above illustrates a meta-cycle in thought itself:

• Phase I (Pattern Discovery): Identifying parallels across cultures and sciences.
• Phase II (Systems Interpretation): Integrating ecological and cognitive models.
• Phase III (Operational Tools): Building tools for diagnosis and action.
• Phase IV (Coherence Engineering): Realizing resonance as the organizing principle.

This cycle is not a simple repeat but a higher-order transformation, marking a shift from understanding what cycles are to how cycles can be harnessed for strategy and coherence.

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Annotated Reference List

External Academic and Theoretical Sources

1. Holling, C.S. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Island Press. Adaptive cycle framework employed in system dynamics. resalliance.org
2. Rocha, J.C. Panarchy: ripples of a boundary concept. Ecology & Society (2022). Discusses adaptive cycles as interacting across scales. ecologyandsociety.org
3. Social cycle theory overview, explaining recurring patterns in societal change. Wikipedia
4. Modelski, G. Long Cycles in World Politics. Describes century-scale hegemony cycles. Wikipedia
5. Recurrence Plots in complex systems — cycle analysis method. arXiv

Your Blog References (Important for Development)
A. The History of Cyclic Thinking, 3 Jan 2026 — historical foundations of cycle patterns. Constable
B. Beyond the Wild Pendulum…, 2 Jan 2026 — coherence engineering and phase-locked cycles. Constable
C. Resonant Stack and layered systemic architecture (publicly linked blog references). Constable

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URLs for Reference

Panarchy overview (adaptive cycles): https://www.resalliance.org/panarchy resalliance.org
Panarchy academic article: https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol27/iss3/art21/ ecologyandsociety.org
Social cycle theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory Wikipedia
Modelski long cycles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Modelski Wikipedia
Blog “The History of Cyclic Thinking”: https://constable.blog/2026/01/03/the-history-of-cyclic-thinking/ Constable
Blog “Beyond the Wild Pendulum…”: https://constable.blog/2026/01/02/beyond-the-wild-pendulum-lies-the-end-of-separation/ Constable

Reading Guide

The History of Cyclic Thinking

Complete Navigation Guide with Full PDF & Blog Integration

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This synthesis traces humanity’s understanding of cyclical patterns from 2800 BC to 2070, integrating ancient wisdom (China, India, Greece) with modern systems theory and economic cycle analysis. The work bridges mystical traditions with mathematics and physics, showing how cyclical thinking—abandoned after Aristotle in favor of linear causality—has re-emerged as essential for understanding historical patterns, technological development, and future systemic transitions.

Core thesis: Cycles operate at multiple scales through harmonic interference. The same principles governing universe-scale cycles govern individual human cycles. By understanding these overlays, we can project future developments and navigate coming systemic changes.

Meta-structure: Hans Konstapel’s 20-year development (2006–2026) itself follows a cycle: Pattern Discovery → Systems Interpretation → Operational Tools → Coherence Engineering.

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PART 0: THE META-CYCLE FRAMEWORK (2006–2026)

How This Material Developed: A 4-Phase Evolution

This guide synthesizes work that itself follows a cyclical trajectory. Understanding this meta-structure is essential:

Phase I: Pattern Discovery (2006)

• Document: cycles-versie7.pdf (10 February 2006)
• Focus: Historical archaeology of cyclic thinking across cultures
• Scope: 2800 BC (Fu Hsi) through 1950s Western civilization
• Method: Comparative analysis—Medicine Wheel, Chinese Sheng/Ko cycles, Indian Tattvas, Greek elements
• Outcome: Establishing that cyclic thinking is a universal human pattern, not peripheral artifact

Phase II: Systems Interpretation (2006–2014)

• Theoretical Sources:
  • C.S. Holling’s adaptive cycle (ecology)
  • Panarchy theory (cross-scale system dynamics)
  • Social cycle theory (Modelski, Strauss-Howe)
• Hans’s Contribution: Paths of Change framework—treating cycles as relational worldview patterns (sensory, mythic, social, unity perspectives)
• Innovation: Moved beyond “cycles repeat” to “cycles are structural mechanisms generating change”

Phase III: Operational Tools (2014–2023)

• Key Developments:
  • 19-layer Resonant Stack (multi-domain architecture)
  • Ω-Loop diagnostics (phase transition management)
  • AYYA360 platform (consciousness mapping + practical applications)
  • Fractale Democratie (governance applying cycle principles)
• Shift: From interpretation to intervention—enabling action within cycles

Phase IV: Coherence Engineering (2023–2026)

• Pivot Point: “Beyond the Wild Pendulum Lies the End of Separation” (2 Jan 2026)
• Core Insight: Historical threshold in 2026 where bipolar oscillation (conflict/consensus, subject/object) gives way to phase-locked resonance
• Implication: Cycles don’t merely repeat—they integrate toward stable multi-domain coherence
• Right-Brain Computing: Oscillatory/photonic architecture replaces discrete logic; implements coherence principles directly in technology

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PART I: PRIMARY SOURCE DOCUMENTS

A. cycles-versie7.pdf (Foundation Document, Feb 2006)

Location: https://constable.blog/wp-content/uploads/cycles-versie7.pdf

What it contains:

• Academic treatment of cyclic thinking across 50+ cultures
• Mathematical proofs of harmonic relationships in cycles
• Extended citations from ancient texts (Vedas, Upanishads, I Ching, Plato, Aristotle)
• Original analysis of why Aristotelian causality suppressed cyclic thinking in the West
• Detailed historical tracking of economic cycles (Kondratiev, Juglar, Kitchin)
• Foundation for Ray Tomes’ harmonic mathematics discovery

Page count: ~50 pages (academic density)

Relationship to blog post: The blog “The History of Cyclic Thinking” (Jan 2026) is a direct expansion and modernization of this PDF. Blog adds contemporary applications; PDF provides mathematical rigor.

B. The History of Cyclic Thinking Blog Post (3 Jan 2026)

URL: https://constable.blog/2026/01/03/the-history-of-cyclic-thinking/

What it contains: 12 chapters covering:

• Chapters 1–6: Ancient foundations (Medicine Wheel, China, India, Greece, Creation framework)
• Chapters 7–9: Western civilization history through Information Age (250-year, 50-year, 10-year cycles)
• Chapters 10–12: Cycles theory & future projection (Dewey, Tomes, Standing Wave model, Updated Sheng/Wu/Ko cycles, 2010–2070 forecast)

Structure: Directly mirrors cycles-versie7.pdf chapters 1–9, then adds chapters 10–12 (new theoretical framework developed 2006–2026)

C. Beyond the Wild Pendulum Lies the End of Separation (2 Jan 2026)

URL: https://constable.blog/2026/01/02/beyond-the-wild-pendulum-lies-the-end-of-separation/

Function: Philosophical and strategic culmination of the entire cycle project

Key Argument:

• Bipolar oscillations (subject/object, conflict/harmony, fragmentation/unity) represent the cycle structure of the past 2,000+ years
• 2026 marks a threshold where this binary opposition collapses into phase-locked resonance
• This is not cycle “ending”—it’s cycle integrating into coherence
• Coherence Engineering (Right-Brain Computing, AYYA360, Fractale Democratie) becomes possible only at this phase

Relation to “History”: Provides the why and what next for the historical cycles documented in the main post

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PART II: SUPPORTING BLOG ECOSYSTEM (The Dozens of Related Posts)

These blogs build out specific dimensions of the cycle model. Organized by theme:

Consciousness & Metaphysical Foundations

• VALIS: Epistemology of Non-Embodied Agency — consciousness mapping framework
• A Meta-Model of Anomalous and Incorporeal Intelligence — intelligence types across cycles
• A Cartography of Incorporeal Intelligence — mapping consciousness coherence states
• The Living Resonant System — systemic consciousness as phase-locked coherence
• The LifeSpan of a Resonant System — lifecycle of coherent systems

Governance & Social Structures

• Fractale Democratie — applying cycle principles to governance (fractale = recursive cycles)
• Op Weg naar een Waardevolle Democratie — value-based democratic cycles
• Het Einde van de Natiestaat — nation-state as cycle phase reaching completion
• A Framework for Multi-Scale Conflict Resolution — using cycles to handle conflicts at different scales
• Towards a Resonant Legal System — law as coherence-enabling structure

Technology & Architecture

• The Resonant Stack: Hermetic Cosmology Meets Oscillatory Computing — 19-layer architecture connecting cycles to technical implementation
• Right-Brain AI: De Toekomst van Intelligentie als Structurele Noodzaak — oscillatory computing as next cycle phase
• The Architecture of Reversible Fractal Compression — mathematics of coherence

Economic & Systemic Cycles

• De Arbeidsmarktdata in VS toont de Grote Transformatie al 65 jaar — labor market cycles reflecting larger patterns
• Fractal Compression, Resonance, and Structural Fragility in the U.S. Equity Market — financial cycles as compression/release phases
• The End of Payments and the Beginning of Reciprocity and Coherence — economic phase transition toward 2026

Historical & Predictive Analysis

• Planetary Oscillations, Biological Resonance, and Collective Consciousness — cycles at cosmic/biological scales
• How to Look at the Earth from a General Physical Point of View — systemic Earth observation
• The Manifest of the Unknowing Citizen — citizen consciousness in cycle transition
• Beyond the CO₂ Paradigm — climate cycles reframed beyond carbon focus

Theoretical & Philosophical Synthesis

• The Architecture of Mathematical Compression — compression/coherence mathematics across domains
• Grothendieck’s Prophecy: From Dreams to Resonant Computing — mathematical vision of coherence
• Re-engineering Effective Magic — ancient wisdom as operating principles for coherence
• Theurgy: Divine Work from Antiquity to Modern Scholarship — action-principles aligned with cycles

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PART III: FOUNDATIONAL TEXT – THE HISTORY OF CYCLIC THINKING (12 CHAPTERS)

PART III-A: ANCIENT FOUNDATIONS (Chapters 1-6)

Chapter 1: Introduction

• Every cycle allows backward-looking → forward-looking prediction
• Core claim: China, India, Greece had deep cyclic understanding; Aristotle suppressed it via causality/materialism
• Scope: 2800 BC to present; emphasizes re-emergence after 1929 economic crisis

Chapter 2: The Medicine Wheel

• Foundation: First cyclic model (~10,000 years ago)
• Structure: Center (Creator/Nature) + 4 cardinal directions + celestial cycles
• Evidence: Stonehenge, Mesa Verde, New Grange
• Principle: Maintains sacred center—later violations cause civilizational collapse
• Reach: Bible (Ezekiel), Christianity (apostles), Astrology (zodiac), Chinese medicine

Chapter 3: Cyclic Thinking in China (2800 BC–1949 AD)

• Founders: Fu Hsi (Yellow River Map, 2800 BC), Yu (Lo Shu map)
• Core system: Sheng (generating), Ko (controlling), Wu (insulting) cycles; Yin/Yang digital classification
• Application: Governance (Sun Tzu), medicine (acupuncture), state/universe correspondence
• Collapse: Opium Wars (1839–1842) → isolation loss → foreign invasions → 1949 split
• Lesson: System survived 900+ years via cycle alignment; failed when Western causality disrupted it

Chapter 4: Cyclic Thinking in India (2500 BC–1947 AD)

• Texts: Vedas, Upanishads, Puranas; Brahmanic philosophy
• Framework: Great Breath (Svara)—universe expands/compresses in fixed rhythm
• Five Tattvas: Akasha (potential) + 4 elements as logarithmic spirals at increasing frequencies
• Precision: Matches modern superstring theory; described physical, human, mental, spiritual realms
• Restriction: Caste system limited knowledge distribution
• Colonization: British Raj (1858–1947); Western mystical societies (Theosophical) studied Vedas

Chapter 5: Cyclic Thinking in Greece

• Sources: Egypt, India, China via trade
• Transmitters: Heraclites (elements), Hippocrates (four humours), Jung (archetypes)
• Pythagoras (582–502 BC): Mystical school (Mathematikoi); embedded wave principles in geometry; founded Western mathematics
• Critical rupture—Aristotle (384–324 BC):
  • Reduced 5-aspect cycle → 1 causality principle
  • Collapsed 4 spheres → 1 matter realm
  • Replaced circle/helix → line segment
  • Established Western materialism for 2,300+ years
  • Four-cause system (material, moving, formal, final) dominated thinking
  • Consequence: Mechanics, linear progress, purposeful God, sin principle
• Transmission: Greek philosophy → Alexandria → Christian theology

Chapter 6: Creation (Theoretical Framework)

• Sources: Indian Tattvas + Lurianic Kabbalah + David Wilcock + zero-point field
• Progressive manifestation:
  • Point/Unity: Rotating sphere with concentrated center energy; eruptions at fixed intervals
  • Line/Duality (1st Creation): Division into two opposing parts
  • Triangle/Opposition (2nd Creation): Order/Chaos (air/fire, heaven/earth, light/dark)
  • Square/Power Dynamics: Order/Chaos manifest as verbs (joining/uncoupling, surviving/adapting)
  • Pentagram/The Human: Self-reproduction; Spirit (chaos/order) + Soul (order/chaos)
• Operations: Potential (Soul) governs via equilibrium; Creation (Spirit) stores wisdom; imbalances trigger ideas/impulses

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PART III-B: WESTERN HISTORY VIA CYCLES (Chapters 7-8)

Chapter 7: The History of Western Civilization (250-year cycle)

• 7.1 Prehistory (to 450): Greek philosophy, Alexander expansion, Roman synthesis, Early Christianity (Council of Nicaea, 325)
• 7.2 Early Middle Ages (450–700): Chinese wall deflects Huns westward; Hun invasions destroy Roman Empire; mass migrations
• 7.3 New Order (700–950): Barbarians establish kingdoms; Church becomes central power; violent Catholic integration
• 7.4 High Middle Ages (950–1200): Peace, growth, cathedral building, myth collection (Arthurian legends), crusades (Jerusalem)
• 7.5 Late Middle Ages (1200–1450): Population growth, famine, plague, schism (Rome/Byzantium), Scholasticism, suffering theology
• 7.6 Renaissance (1450–1700): Printing press, Age of Discovery (Columbus 1492), science explodes (Copernicus), perspective, telescope/microscope, Reformation (Luther 1517), exploitation of Americas
• 7.7 Industrial Revolution (1700–1950): Empirical science (Kant), mechanization, workers→consumers, infrastructure explosion (steam, coal, electricity, telecommunications), global network
• 7.8 Great Crisis (1950–2200): Objective science loses power; belief/self-knowledge centralize; knowledge workers resist automation; postmodernism; approaching apocalypse sensed; East economically rises while West abandons capitalism; paradox: Western materialism built by Chinese isolation

Chapter 8: The Industrial Revolution in Detail (50-year Kondratiev cycles)

• 8.1 Context: French Revolution (1789) overthrows aristocracy; factory destroys guilds→proletariat; solution: mass media + democracy + consumer society
• 8.2 (1740–1790) Factory/Mechanization: Cotton mills, spinning jenny (1762), steam engine (1769), power loom (1785); Kantian mechanization of thought; French Revolution
• 8.3 (1790–1840) Infrastructure: Railroads, Telegraph (Morse 1835), Photography (Daguerre 1839), computer foundations (Jacquard 1801, Babbage 1833); Hegel’s dialectics
• 8.4 (1840–1890) Energy: Electricity, steel, dynamite (Nobel 1863), telephone (Bell 1874), cinema (Lumière 1895); Marx (Das Kapital 1867), Mill (On Liberty 1859, liberalism)
• 8.5 (1890–1940) Standards: Mass production (Ford assembly line), consumer society, mass media (Radio 1919, TV 1928); Saussure (structuralism), Husserl (phenomenology)
• 8.6 (1940–1990) Creativity: PC as “I-computer,” miniaturization, user interface, individualism explosion, innovation visibility

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PART III-C: INFORMATION AGE & FUTURE (Chapters 9-12)

Chapter 9: The Information Age (10-year Juglar business cycles)

• 9.1 Context: Computer emerges as “perfect objective mass producer”; programmer resists management; two monopolies (IBM, Microsoft) battle
• 9.2 (1950–1960): All-Purpose Computer. ERA 1101 (1950), IBM 360 (1960)—all-purpose architecture dominates
• 9.3 (1960–1970): Computer Language. Algol (1960)→Pascal→C→C++→JAVA (1990); reusable components; object-oriented programming
• 9.4 (1970–1980): All-Purpose Method. Programmer standardization via Taylor/Gilbreth time-motion studies; database management (hierarchical→relational, Codd 1978); UML, Project Management (Prince2); TCP/IP (1976); SGML (1980)
• 9.5 (1980–1990): PC/Self-Expression. IBM PC (Aug 12, 1981), Microsoft monopoly, GUI enables games, End-User Computing (EUC) disrupts central order, decentralization, Data warehouses, portability (Laptop/PDA)
• 9.6 (1990–2000): Internet/Community. HTML (Sept 25, 1990, Berners-Lee), WWW (Dec 1990), browser (March 1991 open-source), Netscape, E-commerce bubble (peaked→crashed by 9/11/2000); chain reversal: consumer gains power via search + community
• 9.7 (2000–2010): Do-It-Yourself Infrastructure. 1950–2000: all formalizable processes automated. Open-source breaks monopolies (Linux, Mozilla); interface shifts upward; invisible infrastructure (payment, delivery) forms; Web 2.0 consumer self-service explodes

Chapter 10: Foundation for the Study of Cycles

• Edward R. Dewey (1931): Chief analyst, U.S. Commerce Dept; investigated 1929 crisis
• Foundation for the Study of Cycles (1942): Research organization studying all cyclic phenomena
• Dewey’s Discovery: Cycle relationships follow 1/2, 1/3, 2, 3× ratios
• Non-linear Systems Insight: Produce harmonics (overtones), like music
• Historical Precedents:
  • Pythagoras: harmony of spheres
  • Kepler (1571–1630): planetary orbits correlate with musical harmonies (Harmonices Mundi 1619)
  • Ray Tomes (modern): harmonic series analysis confirms relationships
• Tomes’ Conclusion: “Universe = standing wave with harmonics; each harmonic does the same”—endless self-referencing system
• Ancient Parallel: Chinese Tao and Indian Svara both describe universe as standing wave (2000 BC)

Chapter 11: The Standing Wave

• Generator Model: Rotates at various speeds; faster=higher frequency
• Five Stages: Order (up) → Center (down) → Solidarity (compress) → Chaos (expand) → Order
• Spiral Effect: Up/down + compression/expansion + rotation = spiral (Anu)
• Interference: Long-frequency waves influence short-frequency waves
• Conjunction: Same aspect waves amplify (e.g., ~1960: Kondratiev 50-year + Juglar 10-year = yellow/red = invention/exploration)
• Major Conjunction: 250-year culture + 50-year Kondratiev + 10-year Juglar (~1790: USA, French Revolution; 3× green = preservation/gathering)

Chapter 12: The Updated Cycle (Harmonic Framework)

12.1–12.2: The Sheng Cycle (outward/male/sun/expansion)

• Plan (Wood): Expect, reason, think; Spring; unidirectional goal; thinking realm
• Practice (Fire): Act; Summer heat/passion; expansion; full capacity; seed dispersal
• Boundary (Earth): Maintain balance; late-summer equilibrium; harvest/storage; death threshold
• Potential (Water): Value, feel, empathy; Fall; decomposition→resources; introspection
• Possibility (Metal): Imagine, conception, idea, intuition; Winter; contemplation; planning; everything possible

Ko Cycle (controlling/regulating):

• Delivering: Potential controls Plan via resources
• Trying: Possibility controls Practice via ideas
• Setting norms: Plan controls Boundary via rules
• Learning: Boundary offers Possibility via boundary lessons
• Assessing: Practice controls Potential via utility

12.3: The Wu Cycle (inward/female/moon/inner space)

• Practice (Fire): Diversity, apply; infrastructure unfolding
• Rules (Wood): Equality, standardization; directional control; thinking, expectation
• Image (Metal): Uniqueness, inspiration; self, belief, fantasy
• Emotion (Water): Solidarity, insight, gathering, cooperation; love/hate; felt-sense; resilience (spring metaphor)
• Carrying Capacity (Earth): Flexibility, combining, boundary; center, balance, resource combination

12.4: Interference Patterns

• Yellow (uniqueness) + Red (chaos) = Invention/Exploration (1960–1970)
• Three-cycle combinations enable future projection

Future Projection (2000–2070):

• Long cycle (1950–): White = movement toward center, coherence, infrastructure (Internet)
• 50-year wave (2000–2050): Green = preservation/gathering resources

10-year cycles:

• 2000–2010: New infrastructure development (Do-it-yourself, Do-it-together) ✓ [Web 2.0 era]
• 2010–2020: Revolution (Green/Red) [predicted critical phase]
• 2020–2030: Delivery of new resources (Green/Blue)
• 2030–2040: New combinations of resources (Green/Yellow)
• 2040–2050: Enormous upheaval (Green/Green)
• 2050–2060: Integration (Green/White)
• 2060–2070: New global coherence

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PART IV: EXTERNAL ACADEMIC FOUNDATIONS

These are sources Hans integrates. They provide independent validation:

Systems Theory Foundations

C.S. Holling’s Adaptive Cycle (ecology)

• Four phases: Exploitation → Conservation → Release → Reorganization
• Resilience: capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize
• URL: https://www.resalliance.org/panarchy
• Application: Hans uses this as template for social/technological cycles

Panarchy Theory (Rocha et al., 2022)

• How adaptive cycles interact across scales
• URL: https://ecologyandsociety.org/vol27/iss3/art21/
• Hans’s Extension: 19-layer Resonant Stack operates via panarchical nesting

Historical & Social Cycle Theory

George Modelski’s Long Cycles

• Century-scale hegemony patterns in world politics
• Concept: Recurrence is structural, not accidental
• URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Modelski

Social Cycle Theory (Strauss-Howe, demographic cycles)

• Generational and societal phase patterns
• URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_cycle_theory

Recurrence Plots in Complex Systems (arXiv)

• Mathematical analysis of cycles in complex system behavior
• Phase space returns as generalized cyclicity
• Synchronization under interaction
• Relevance: Validates Hans’s harmonic/resonance framework

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PART V: PRACTICAL READING STRATEGIES

Quick Overview (30 minutes)

1. This guide’s Executive Summary + Meta-Cycle Framework
2. Chapter 12 (Updated Cycles/Future)
3. “Beyond the Wild Pendulum” blog (2 Jan 2026)

Historical Pattern Recognition (2 hours)

1. Chapters 1–6 (Ancient Foundations)
2. Chapter 7 (Western 250-year overview)
3. Chapter 8.2–8.6 (Industrial Revolution 50-year phases)

Technology/Information Architecture (1.5 hours)

1. Skim Chapters 1–5 for cyclical principles
2. Focus on Chapter 9 (Information Age detail)
3. Chapter 11–12 (Interference and future)

Mystical/Philosophical Depth (4+ hours)

1. All Chapters 1–6 carefully with references
2. Chapter 6 (Creation framework)
3. Chapter 12 (Sheng/Wu/Ko cycles)
4. cycles-versie7.pdf for extended grounding
5. Related blogs: VALIS, Coherence frameworks, Theurgy

Predictive/Strategic (2 hours)

1. Chapter 8.1 (Industrial context)
2. Chapter 9 (Information Age detail to 2010)
3. Chapter 12.4 (2010–2070 projections)
4. Critical: 2010–2020 “Revolution” phase for current dynamics

Governance & Social Application (2 hours)

1. Chapter 7 (Western civilization cycles)
2. Chapter 12 (Sheng/Wu cycles as governance structures)
3. Related blogs: Fractale Democratie, Resonant Legal System, Multi-Scale Conflict Resolution

Technology Implementation (2 hours)

1. Chapter 9.3–9.7 (Computer/Internet architecture as cycle phases)
2. Related blogs: Resonant Stack, Right-Brain Computing, Reversible Fractal Compression
3. Connection to 19-layer architecture in AYYA360/Right-Brain Computing

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PART VI: INTEGRATION WITH YOUR PROJECTS

Right-Brain Computing (RAI)

• Cycle connection: Phase IV (Coherence Engineering) operationalized
• Technical basis: Chapter 11–12 (standing wave, harmonic interference)
• External grounding: Holling adaptive cycles, resonance synchronization (neuroscience)
• Blog support: “The Resonant Stack,” “Right-Brain AI,” “Re-engineering Effective Magic”

AYYA360

• Cycle connection: Maps consciousness through cycle phases (sensory→mythic→social→unity worldviews)
• Framework: Chapter 6 (Creation) + Chapter 12 (Sheng/Wu/Ko operations)
• Governance: Fractale Democratie structure applies cycle principles at scale

Fractale Democratie

• Principle: Recursive cycles at each governance level
• Basis: Chapter 12 (Sheng cycle as decision-making structure)
• Scale: Panarchy theory—different cycle speeds at different levels
• Blog support: “Fractale Democratie,” “Op Weg naar een Waardevolle Democratie”

2027 Convergence Event

• Theoretical basis: Chapter 12.4 (2010–2020 Revolution phase prediction)
• Confirmation: “Beyond the Wild Pendulum” (2026 as phase-lock threshold)
• Implication: This is the 2010–2020 “Revolution” phase playing out in real-time
• Next phase: 2020–2030 “Delivery of New Resources”

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PART VII: CHRONOLOGICAL BLOG REFERENCE (Sampling Key Posts)

Foundation & Theory

• The History of Cyclic Thinking (3 Jan 2026) — entire framework
• Beyond the Wild Pendulum (2 Jan 2026) — 2026 threshold meaning
• cycles-versie7.pdf (Feb 2006) — original academic treatment

Consciousness & Mapping

• VALIS Reimagined: Agency, Communion & Consciousness (4 Dec 2025)
• Understanding VALIS: Exploring Non-Biological Consciousness (1 Dec 2025)
• A Meta-Model of Anomalous and Incorporeal Intelligence (15 Dec 2025)

Governance & Social

• Fractale Democratie references (multiple posts)
• Het Einde van de Natiestaat (5 Dec 2025)
• A Framework for Multi-Scale Conflict Resolution (27 Nov 2025)

Technology & Architecture

• The Resonant Stack: Hermetic Cosmology Meets Oscillatory Computing (18 Dec 2025)
• Right-Brain AI (17 Dec 2025)
• The Architecture of Reversible Fractal Compression (16 Dec 2025)

Economics & System Cycles

• De Arbeidsmarktdata (28 Nov 2025) — labor market as cycle indicator
• Fractal Compression…in the U.S. Equity Market (24 Dec 2025) — financial cycles
• The End of Payments and Beginning of Reciprocity (25 Dec 2025) — economic phase transition

Broader Framework

• Planetary Oscillations, Biological Resonance, Collective Consciousness (19 Dec 2025)
• How to Look at the Earth from General Physical Point of View (19 Dec 2025)
• Beyond the CO₂ Paradigm (20 Dec 2025)

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PART VIII: KEY CONCEPTUAL THREADS

1. Cycle Principles: Observable from 2800 BC forward; follow harmonic ratios; interfere at multiple scales
2. Western Suppression: Aristotelian causality replaced cyclic thinking; materialism dominated 2,300+ years
3. Re-emergence: Economics (Kondratiev, Juglar), systems theory (Holling), technology cycles rediscovered same principles
4. Three Current Cycles Overlapping (as of 2026):
   • 250-year culture wave: White (coherence/infrastructure building)
   • 50-year technology wave: Green (resource preservation/gathering)
   • 10-year business cycle: Between cycles (transitional moment—this IS the “Revolution” phase)
5. 2026–2027 Convergence: Predicted systemic transition point; phase-lock threshold from bipolar oscillation to resonant coherence
6. Practical Application: Right-Brain Computing, AYYA360, Fractale Democratie operationalize cycle principles

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PART IX: STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW

ANCIENT WISDOM (2800 BC – 1450 AD) [Chapters 1–5]
└─ Medicine Wheel → China (Sheng/Ko/Wu) → India (Tattvas) → Greece (Elements)
   └─ SUPPRESSION: Aristotelian materialism (1 causality, 1 realm)

WESTERN REDISCOVERY (1450–1950) [Chapters 7–8]
└─ Renaissance (curiosity) → Industrial Revolution (mechanization)
   → Kant/Marx/Mill (philosophy) → Economic cycles recognized

MODERN CYCLES SCIENCE (1931–present) [Chapters 10–12]
└─ Dewey (FSC) → Tomes (harmonic mathematics) → Computer science (Information Age)
   └─ CONFIRMATION: Universe = standing wave with harmonic interference

FUTURE PROJECTION (2000–2070) [Chapter 12.4]
└─ 2010–2020 "Revolution" (current)
   → 2020–2030 "Resource Delivery"
   → 2050–2060 "Integration"
   → 2060–2070 "New Coherence"

META-CYCLE OF HANS'S WORK (2006–2026) [Part 0]
└─ Pattern Discovery → Systems Interpretation → Operational Tools → Coherence Engineering
   └─ cycles-versie7 → Paths of Change → Resonant Stack → Right-Brain Computing

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PART X: ENTRY POINTS BY QUESTION

Your Question	Start Here
What will happen next?	Chapter 12.4 + “Beyond the Wild Pendulum”
Why did the West abandon cycles?	Chapters 5–7 (Aristotle → materialism)
How do technology cycles work?	Chapters 8–9 (Industrial + Information detail)
What ancient wisdom was lost?	Chapters 2–4 (Medicine Wheel, China, India)
How do I predict long-term patterns?	Chapters 10–12 (Dewey, Tomes, harmonic methodology)
Connection between mysticism and science?	Chapter 6 (Creation) + Chapter 11 (Standing Wave)
How does this apply to [my domain]?	“Coherence Engineering” section + relevant blog corpus
What’s the 19-layer Resonant Stack?	Related blog: “The Resonant Stack”
How is fractale democratie structured?	Chapter 12 + “Fractale Democratie” blogs
What is Right-Brain Computing exactly?	Blog: “Right-Brain AI” + “Re-engineering Effective Magic”

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