Introduction

To the Summary push here

To the Conclusion push here

To a Long Term Ago View on the Climate push here

In this blog I explain How our Climate works What is changing and Why it is changing.

I also show you where the Critical (tipping) points are situated.

To the Antropocene:

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Part 1 : the Earth as a System

Earth as a Stochastic Sytem

Our Earth can be seen as a stochastic system that can be explained by Complexity Science.

Such a system moves between Stable states called Strange Attactors.

Earth as an Ecology

Panarchy is a application of Complexity theory that describes a Multilevel Ecology which is our Earth.

After a Calamity (yellow) a new state of Reorganization starts or (Revolt) the ecology jumps to a slower cycle time, the different parts Fuse, and the ecology starts to Grow again.

Currently we experience a highly diversified climate because of the highly diversified landmass.

Life as an Anticipating System

When I wrote about the Origin of Life on Earth I discovered that Life is an Anticipating system (AS).

An AS is an Early Warning System.

In this blog I show you the early warning systems of our Climate called Tipping Points.

Climate Tipping Points

This blog is a follow up of the blog about Climate Change where I detected the Tipping Points of the Climate of our Earth.

Tipping Points are the moments that a stable system suddenly changes into another state or an unstable state.

Earth as a Flow System

Earth is also a Flow system described by Physics and Thermodynamics.

What we need is more understanding of what our Mother Earth really needs by understanding her major patterns that are not very different from our own patterns.

Heat of the Sun

The only thing that is happening is that our Earth is trying to get rid of the Heat of the Sun.

To do that Earth uses flow-systems that transport water from high areas to low areas that finally connect to the Sea.

The effect is that Earth is working on the Edge of turbulence.

Volatility vs Turbulence

In this blog I will show that many Tipping points are becoming active generating a lot of Volatility.

Our Weather system becomes more turbulent which is a comparable physical concept.

Constructal Law

is created by Adrean Bejan as an application of Thermodynamics.

Heat Transfer

Constructal Law predicts that Earth’s climate and circulation patterns will evolve to maximize heat transfer between warm and cold zones.

This influences atmospheric and oceanic currents, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation, and ocean flows over time.

Artic Amplification

Global Warming is amplified in the Artic (“Arctic amplification”)..

The Arctic is alway warming more than twice as fast as the global average due to the following factors:

Changing Albedo: The loss of snow and sea ice reduces the reflective surface, leading to more sunlight being absorbed, which further warms the area.

Reduced Convection: Less vertical mixing of warm and cold air at high latitudes prevents heat from distributing vertically, causing more warming near the surface.

Increased Water Vapor: Warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapor, which is transported from the tropics to the poles. Condensation of this vapor releases heat and contributes to Arctic warming.

Seasonal Effects: Melting sea ice in summer absorbs more sunlight, and the stored heat is released in winter, leading to additional warming.

Warming the North North Pole has an opposite effect on the ~South Pole and the Jet Streams that have become unstable.

They are now meandering bringing cold dry air at warm places and hot wet air at other places.

Flow Configuration Optimization

The model aims to understand and predict these changes based on the principles of Flow configuration Optimization.

Ferrell Cells

play an important role in stabilizing the Heat Transfer of the North and South Poles

Rising and Falling Air

Cold Air falls to the Poles and Warm Air rises from the Equator where both circulations connect in the middle in the Ferrell cells,

Coriolis Force

The Coriolis Force , a result of the Rotation of the earth generates all kinds of winds.

The winds are dependent on the difference between the temperature of the Equator and the poles.

Fluctuating Jet Stream

This temperature is rising generating a Highly Fluctuating Jet Stream.

Earth is a Rotating Flow System Dominated by the Sun

The Sun is the driving force that’s why the Cycle of the Sunspots, influenced by the other planets in our system, that heats and the Distance between Sun and Earth have a huge impact.

The last one determinates the amount of Ice on Earth.

The Earth’s climate is a huge Rotating flow system.

It circulates air and water from the tropics to the poles and back. These flows develop as air and water move from hot to cold regions, a result of variation in the heating of the Earth’s surface by the sun.

Part 2 : The Climate is Changing

Heat Waves: Active Sun + El Niño + Global Warming:

The major cause of the current heat is El Niño and Increased Sunspot Activity related to the 205 year de Vries Cycle.

The sunspot-cycle is driven by the gravity-waves of our fellow planets.

the amount of “air SO2-pollution” is much lower and volcano’s are not very active but still the combination results in a Super El Niño .

El Nino

Part 3: Finding Long Term Patterns in the Climate

Cold: Research of the Greenland and Antartic Ice Sheet

Symmetry

Earth is a symmetric system with exception of its Land Mass.

The symmetry-line is the Equator.

When the South Pole becomes Colder often the North Plole becomes Warmer.

In this video you can see what happened the last 200.00 years.

10.00 years of Stable-Climate

It shows that we ahave been living for 10.000 years in an Exceptional Stable State.

It looks like we are leaving this state.

Ice-sheets are a Time-machine

The cause can be found is the Drilling into the Icesheets of both Poles.

Quite a few tipping points are known in the climate system. Just to name a few: apart from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica we know that the cover of sea ice at the poles, the Amazon rainforest and North Atlantic Sea Currents have tipping points where they irreversibly change to states from which they will not return if former levels are reestablished.

Part 4: the Tipping Points of our climate

List of Potential Climate Tipping Points:

The list is made with GPT.

Amoc

Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): Weakening or disruption of the AMOC could lead to significant climate shifts and impacts on ocean circulation patterns.

Thawing Permafrost:

Thawing of permafrost releases methane and carbon dioxide, amplifying greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerating warming.

Melting of Antarctica and Greenland Ice Sheets:

Rapid melting of these ice sheets can contribute to sea-level rise, potentially leading to large-scale impacts on coastal regions.

Loss of Coral Reefs:

Coral bleaching due to warming oceans and ocean acidification can lead to the decline and loss of coral reef ecosystems.

Deforestation and Carbon Cycle:

Large-scale deforestation reduces the Earth’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, affecting the global carbon cycle and contributing to elevated greenhouse gas levels.

Melting Arctic Sea Ice and Albedo Effect:

Reduced Arctic sea ice cover diminishes the planet’s reflective surface, increasing heat absorption and accelerating Arctic warming.

Ocean Stratification and Oxygen Depletion:

Changes in ocean circulation patterns can lead to reduced mixing of oxygen-rich surface waters with deeper waters, resulting in oxygen-depleted zones in the oceans.

Rapid Methane Hydrate Release:

Sudden release of methane hydrates from ocean sediments due to warming oceans could lead to a potent greenhouse gas surge.

Amazon Rainforest Dieback:

Increased drought and deforestation could disrupt the Amazon rainforest ecosystem, leading to a potential tipping point where it transitions to a savannah-like landscape.

Greenland Freshwater Input:

Excess freshwater from melting Greenland ice could disrupt ocean circulation and potentially influence the AMOC.

Monsoon Shifts:

Changes in temperature and circulation patterns could alter monsoon patterns, affecting agricultural productivity and water availability in many regions.

Collapse of Antarctic Ice Shelves:

Disintegration of ice shelves could accelerate the flow of glaciers into the ocean, contributing to sea-level rise.

Global Carbon Feedbacks:

Positive feedback loops, where warming triggers further emissions (e.g., from forests or wetlands), can amplify climate change.

What are Tipping Points

Tipping points re critical thresholds where the (climate) a system as a whole, or its components, referred to as tipping elements, transition from one stable state to another.

Domino effect

This occurs by way of a drastic and irreversible change that catalyzes a domino effect of feedback mechanisms, resulting in a cascade of numerous dramatic changes.

Part 5: Possible States of the Climate

By analyzing the calamities that happened on earth we can get an idea about the possible states our earth can reach and the resilience of the total system.

The state are Hot, Cold and a rare Instable state:

Equator <- Ocean > Poles

The cooling comes from the Poles, the Heating from the Sun at the Equator.

Observe the important role the thermohaline circulation,of the Ocean plays in the system.

Meandering Jetstream

Part 6: List of Calamities

The list is made by GPT:

Warm->Vulcans Clouds -> Cold

Volcanic Eruptions: Release of large amounts of ash, gases, and aerosols into the atmosphere due to volcanic activity. Consequences: Temporary Cooling of the Earth’s climate due to the reflection of sunlight by volcanic particles, impacting weather patterns and ecosystems.

Warm-> Breaking Ice Sheets -> Cold

Heinrich Events: Instability of large ice sheets, including the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet, leads to the breaking off of icebergs and the release of iceberg debris into the North Atlantic Ocean. Consequences: Disruption of the thermohaline circulation, cooling of the northern hemisphere, changes in sea levels, and ecological impacts on marine ecosystems.

Meteors Debris -> Cold

Meteorite Impacts:High-energy impact of space rocks (meteorites) with the Earth’s surface, releasing energy and material into the atmosphere. Consequences: Immediate release of immense energy, causing fires, tsunamis, and global environmental effects, including cooling due to the injection of debris into the atmosphere.

Warm->Cold Water ->Cold

Younger Dryas: Possibly caused by the collapse of the North American ice dam that released meltwater into the northern Atlantic Ocean, leading to disruption of the thermohaline circulation. Consequences: Return to cold climatic conditions after a period of warming, impacting ecosystems, vegetation, and animals in the affected regions.

Increase Solar Activity -> Warm

Medieval Warm Period: Combination of natural variability in Solar activity and possibly changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Consequences: A relatively warmer period that occurred globally from the 9th to the 13th century, with regional variations in temperature and climate effects.

Decrease Solar Activuty -> Cold

Little Ice Age: Various factors, including Volcanic eruptions emitting aerosols into the atmosphere, changes in solar activity, and potential interactions between ocean and atmospheric dynamics. Consequences: A period of cooler temperatures lasting roughly from the 14th to the 19th century, leading to glacier growth, cold winters, and impacting agriculture and societies.

Instable

Dansgaard-Oeschger Events: Fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation of the oceans, possibly caused by changes in ice sheets, atmospheric circulation patterns, and ocean dynamics.Consequences: Rapid temperature changes, from warming to cooling or vice versa, occurring over decades to centuries and significantly impacting ecosystems and ice sheets.

Part 7: List of Climate Cycles

Made by GPT

List of CyclesLong-Term Cycles (Thousands to Millions of Years):

Milankovitch Cycles: Cyclic changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun, including eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, which influence ice ages and interglacial periods.

Intermediate-Term Cycles (Decades to Centuries):

Solar Sunspot Cycle: Approximately 11-year cycle of variations in the number of sunspots on the sun’s surface, which can affect the solar energy reaching Earth.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Variability of sea surface temperature patterns in the northern Pacific Ocean, with a period of several decades.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): Variability of sea surface temperature patterns in the northern Atlantic Ocean, with a period of several decades.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Atmospheric pressure pattern over the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean with variability ranging from several years to decades.

Short-Term Cycles (Days to Years):

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Cycle of ocean temperatures and currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean with a typical period of several years.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): Oscillation of wind patterns in the tropical stratosphere with a period of about 28 to 29 months. Monsoon Cycles: Seasonal changes in wind patterns and rainfall, such as the Indian Southwest Monsoon and the North American Monsoon.

Seasonal Cycles: Regular changes that occur due to the Earth’s rotation around the sun, including the transitions between the four seasons.

Part 8 : Simulating the Climate

CLimate-CPT?

CMIP6: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 

Scenario’s based on Models

Summary

Part 1 Earth as a System: In an earlier blog I found the Constructal Law of Andrian Bejan which is a summary of Thermodynamics, the sciece of Heat. It explains why the earth is a Flow System

Part 2 The Climate is Changing Many unusual things happen.

Is the climate changing or is this a normal deviation from a well known pattern?

Part 3 Finding Long termPatterns in the Climate.

There are many ways to find out, sometimes in detail, what happened a long term ago.

It looks we are part of an unusual stable pattern for 10.000 years.

This stable climate facilitated the rise of our civilization.

Before that time humans lived in Caves.

Part 4: The tipping points of our Climate made by GPT.

The most important tipping point with the most relations to other tipping point is the stopping of the AMOC, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an underwater seapattern.

Part 5: Possible states of the Climate

Part 6 : List of calamities and their effect on the climate

Part 7 List of Long term and Short term Climate Cycles

Part 8 : Simulating the Climate

Part 9: Anthropocene

Building Our build environment with concrete is producing >40% of our pollution.

Conclusion

This blog is part of a series of interconnected blogs that are used in this blog.

The most important is about the Origins of life.

It was a result of my discovery of Heuristics, a result of the work of Kahnemann and Tvarsky about the Juman Rationality.

It shows that we are highly Biased especially when we are Stressed.

Government and Media are responsible for generating a lot of stress related to climate change.

The effect is that almost nobody knows and fully understands what is really happening.

Although it could be true that human activity is responsible for the current situation almost nobody knows what we are facing.

We are facing a completely different climate as the last 10.000 years with an earth-population that is mostly living in area’s where humans cannot exist.

This happened before resulting in massive deportations and the building of the big Wall of China to keep the Huns out.

It also happened at the time that the humans had to leave Paradise now called the Green Sahara.

Is Paradise returning with Global Warming?

Green Sahara Leaving Paradise

between approximately 10,000 and 5,000 years ago, the Sahara experienced a period of increased rainfall and humidity, leading to the growth of vegetation, grasslands, and even lakes and rivers. nvironment.

Cave drawing show that about 5000 BC the climate of the Sahara started to shift back toward aridity that forced communities to adapt and migrate to more suitable regions.

The communities carried with them a story of a Paradise they had to leave because of the sin of their ancestors.

Long Term Ago View on the Climate

What happened in the Sahara a Long Time Ago?

What can we learn from the very very long ago View?

We have to stop polluting now!

Return to the Beginning

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