Introduction
In this blog i I try to find out why
the Climate Model of the IPCC is so dominant,
Why the Pollution of environment disappeared as an issue and most of all
How Climate Change became Big Money.
I show you how Climate Change became a Political Debate about the Poor and the Ritch and
a succesful Business Model.
In the end I show you why you don;t need a model to predict what is going to happen and why it happens.
I already wrote about this the Climate-model in Dutch here.
Part 1: the Club of Rome
Part 2: the Time Line UN conferences shows when Big Money appeared.
Part 3: the Time Line Al Gore shows the same
Part 4: the solution? Apply Complexity Science and look at the Autocorrelation of the variables.
Tipping Points
What are the Tipping points of our Earth?
Part 1: the Forrester World Model 1972
When you make a model of the World it is impossible to apply it to a Local Situation.
This what is happening with Global Warming.
It is also to not Scientific to use an Explanatory model to Predict.
The World-n model was developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and featured in the groundbreaking report “The Limits to Growth,” published by the Club of Rome in 1972.
It explored the long-term effects of human activities such as population growth, industrialization, food production, and natural resource use on the global economy and the environment.
The World -n model was a bottom-up approach, integrating various components and variables to simulate the dynamics of the world system.
It aimed to provide insights into the interactions among these factors and their influence on future trends and scenarios.
We are now able to predict a multilevel economy with high accuracy with ease.
Many fields of science are converging so why do we need a completely new model of the IPCC?
Part 2: It started with the Ozon hole and Acid Rain
Time Line; From Environment to Big Business
List Made with GPT.
1960: Publication of “The Problem of Social Cost” by Ronald Coase, introducing the concept of emissions trading as a way to address environmental pollution.
1972: Environment Day
1972: The United Nations holds the first World Environment Day on June 5th to raise global awareness about environmental issues, including climate change.
1987 Montreal: Ozon and Acid Rain
1987: The Montreal Protocol is signed to reduce ozone-depleting substances, which later served as inspiration for international climate negotiations.
1990: First Report IPCC
1990: The first IPCCAssessment Report is published, summarizing scientific knowledge on climate change.
1992: Establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) during the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, aiming at international cooperation to address climate change.
1995: The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) of the UNFCCC is held in Berlin, with continued discussions on climate change action.
1997 Kyoto: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) introduced
1997: Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol during the third meeting of the parties (COP 3) of the UNFCCC in Kyoto, Japan. The Kyoto Protocol introduces various flexible mechanisms, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
2005 Kyoto CDM operational
2005: The Kyoto Protocol enters into force, and the Clean Development Mechanism becomes operational. The CDM allows developed countries to achieve emission reductions by investing in projects in developing countries.
2005: EU: Emission Trading System
2005: Launch of the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) as the world’s first regional emission trading system, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union.
2012: The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol ends. Negotiations for a new international climate agreement continue.
2015: The signing of the Paris Agreement during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) of the UNFCCC in Paris, France. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
2020: Green Deal
2020: The EU ETS is revised, and a new system called the European Green Deal is introduced with more ambitious emission reduction targets and broader sectors included in the trading system.
Climate Change is now Big Business
Part 3: Time Line Publicity Al Gore
1988: Politics
1988: Al Gore gives a speech to the United States Congress on the seriousness of climate change.
1992: Gore is one of the signatories of the Rio de Janeiro Convention on Sustainable Development.
1997: Gore is one of the signatories of the Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The american senate never rectified the signatories of Al Gore.
2006: Documentary: Academy Award
2006: Gore releases the documentary An Inconvenient Truth. The film wins an Academy Award.
2007 Peace Prize
2007: Gore receives the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on climate change.
2008: Gore is one of the founders of the Climate Reality Project, a non-profit organization that educates the public about climate change.
2018: Gore is one of the founders of the Climate Reality Project Action Fund, a political action group that advocates for climate policy.
2021: Gore releases the documentary An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power.
2004: Al Gore Follow he Money:
2004: Four years after losing to George W Bush in 2000, Gore set up Generation Investment Management with former Goldman Sachs Managing Director David Blood.
Observe that 2004 is 2 years before he made his documentary.
Bloomberg ranked Generation, which has $40.4 billion worth of assets under its management, as among the companies that owned the greatest share of greenhouse gas-emitting firms when compared to other funds that placed a priority on so-called ESG — environmental, social and governance — investing.
Olof Palme 1972
It all started with Prime Minister of Sweden, Olof Palme who was killed in 28 febraury 1986.
Palme was playing a “dangerous” game between Communist East and the Capitalistic West.
Stockholm Conference: Science becomes aPolitical Instrument
At that time the environment became a Political instrument to support the underdeveloped countries.
Role Maurice Strong and Barbara Ward
Watch the video of below about the “Left” consiracy behind Climate Change.
It contains the names of important “players” like Barbara Ward and Maurice Strong , Gro Harlem Brundtland, Kofi Annan, Indira Gandhi and Robert McNamara.
1988 US Senate testimony
The interesting part of this testimoney is that you can listen to the science of 1988.
Current Science about Global Warming.
Part 4: General Theory: Complexity Theory
Complexity Theory Is the result of Cybernetics which is the reult of General System Theory.
It has the same roots as the World Model of the Club of Rome in Part 1.
What you see below is a nested (fractal) cycle that moves from Growth to Reorganisation.
Our Earth Moves to the Stage of Reorganization:
because of a very long time of Conservation (keeping everything the same).
Tipping Point
The essence of this picture is that the total system can jump Up (more general) or Down (nore specific) after a so called Tipping point and we dont know what the earth climate will do and when it wil do something with a smal exception that it wil happen at a certain moment and it happened a long time ago.
Window of predictability.
Systems become more predictable (more stable) and are sometimes very volatile.
It happens in the Financial System and it happens with the Weather on a local and sometimes Global scale.
Current System Theory
Model of the Universe
Every level is a Combination of Combinations starting with the vacuum/
Repeating Fractal Model
Spiraling Spiral
Our civilisation has gone up and down just as our Universe is going up and down but in a fractal pattern that loooks like a Spiraling Spiral.
A Jump looks beneficial but it is not always benificial for all.
Currently we are already more than 9000 year dominated by a Industrial Society that is destroying Earth step by step.
Big Diasters
The climate is also affected by big and small disaster like the explosion of a Vulcano that produce So2, the cause of Acid rain.
Great Flood
December 25, 3117 B.C. marks the date of the start of Biblical, Hindu and Maya Calendars. It is probably the date of the Great Flood. It created the so called Piora Oscillation.
Buzz Holling’s Panarchy models an Ecology
Early Warning Systems
are used to predict a critical transition.
Instable vs Stable
Our climate is sometimes stable like the last 10.000 years but more often unstable.
We could be approaching such a Sitation.
Local vs Global
An unstable situation is always local.
Long vs Short
Unstable situations also sometimes take many years.
Tipping Points
To find that we have to look at the internal patterns.
Autocorrelation
A critcal situation can be predicted by measuring the autocorrelation.
Back to the Beginning
Push here