When you lend somebody something you assume he (or she) will give the item back in due time. To lend you have to Trust somebody. There are many ways to create a trusted relation. When a long term trusted relationship grows out of a long chain of interactions the Iterated Prisoners Dilemma is at stake. The Chinese are the Masters of Playing this Game. In some situations it is very clear that a try-out is not necessary. If we look at the cultures of the Earth we can see that the concept of Family or Tribe more or less guaranties … Continue reading About Virtue and Wisdom
Black Tuesday, October 29 1929 a giant economic implosion took place. This implosion was the official start of the Great Depression. The implosion took place because Something or Somebody was pushing the economy UP while it wanted to go down. An artificial Up-movement of the Economy is called a Bubble. J.P. Morgan was highly involved with the introduction of Fascism in Europe and the US. He believed that the major enemy in the World were the Communists. He was befriended with Mussolini and Hitler and organized a fascists putsch in the US by his own private army, the American Legion. … Continue reading The House of Morgan or How the Great Depression was Created
During the so called E-Commerce Bubble allmost everybody believed that when you sell something on the Internet you will become an instant multi-biljonair. I did not believe this at all. The funny thing was that almost nobody believed me. I waited for the Bubble to burst. To my surprise the E-Commerce Bubble became the biggest bubble I ever experienced. At a certain moment I even started to believe I was wrong and something really special was happening, The New Economy. Later I discovered the reason why the Bubble was able to grow to an extreme proportion. The Long Term Economic … Continue reading About Fools, Pyramids and Bubbles
Milton Erickson (1901-1980) was “the best therapist that ever lived“. He was an expert in “non-verbal” behaviour. He learned when he was young that people could say “yes” and mean “no” at the same time. At that time he discovered that body language and tone of voice was telling another story than verbal language. The first part addresses the Unconsciousness. The second addresses the Mind. Erickson was able to tell two stories at the same time. One story was a fascinating story that had nothing to do with the problem of his patients. Within the first story he emphasized sentences … Continue reading About Mind Control
About A year ago I was writing a strategy for a company. Suddenly I got the idea I was writing something I had already written a long time ago. I got the feeling that “History was repeating itself”. I started to investigate and suddenly I found a Pattern. The pattern I found was the Kondratiev Cycle. Behind the Kondratiev Cycle another pattern appeared. Kondratiev related the cycle already to the Seasons. The Seasons where at time also a subject I was investigating. I was very interested in Acupuncture and Chinese Philosophy. I already found a mapping of the World Views … Continue reading Prepare Yourself for a Spectaculair Change
I am asked to help to define a Strategy again. Defining a strategy is something I like the most. I will share some experience.
The most important part of a Strategy is to be become aware of your Potential. If you want to drive very fast but you are not able to buy a car the Strategy to drive a car is a bad strategy.
Many people and of course companies are defining unrealistic targets. This creates Stress and when you are stressed you are unable to see the Facts.
To my surprise many people are still trying to implement Knowledge-Management. I thought everybody was convinced that after almost 12 years of failing people would understand there is something wrong. I was involved from the beginning. Knowledge Management came out of Data- and Database Management. At that time I believed the human was a Machine. I did not believe that at that time. Later I realized this was the paradigm we were using. When you use the paradigm of the Machine the only thing you can do is Program People. When you Program people you store DATA in a database … Continue reading Why Knowledge Management Advisors are Unable to Manage Their Own Knowlegde
Banking is really very simple. It became very complicated when the computer was introduced. What need to be done is to move back to simplicity again. If somebody is able to do this the possibilities are tremendous. If ABN AMRO and Fortis are able to recreate a simple bank again they could Change History.
To keep this blog simple you have to believe the essence of Banking is the Movement of Cash-Flows. A cash-flow is a transaction between two actors.
In the first blog about the merger of ABN AMRO and Fortis I tried to show that the integration of the technical infrastructure of both banks will be very difficult. In this blog I want to talk about a much more important issue called Culture. When the merger of ABN and AMRO was starting I was part of a management development course. The person behind the course was a very wise person. He told us what would happen the next years and he was right. What he explained was that ABN was a very old bank that came out of … Continue reading Why the Merger of ABN AMRO and Fortis will Fail (Part 2 Culture) if They Don’t Apply The Lessons Learned
Today it is almost sure that Fortys will buy ABN AMRO. I was involved in the merger between ABN and AMRO in 1991. AMRO was the most important competitor of ABN. It was a strange idea that we (ABN) were combined to become a “Global Bank”. Soon I found out that we were in many fields completely different. My part of ABN was not hierarchical. We were a network. The manager at the top and the manager at the bottom were freely talking to each other. We were highly efficient and cost oriented. AMRO was completely different. They were strictly … Continue reading Why the Merger of ABN AMRO and Fortis will Fail (Part 1 Technical Infrastructure) if They Don’t Apply The Lessons Learned