The Future Center Smart Systems was launched the 23th of April 2014. After the launch a part of the participants wanted to be part of the process.
To support this process we have created an intake-procedure to make sure that the issue at stake is related to Smart Systems and that it is possible to move on if we detect an interesting connection between the possible participant, current participants and LIACS.
An important issue in this case is funding. Funding is possible if the participant has a personal budget or if it possible to acquire a budget based on a shared proposal.
In this case Subsidies, Government Funding (Local/Global Investment Funds), Corporate Funding or Private Funding (“Angels”) are possible. We are now connected with all kinds of investors. If we are able to create a successful business-case funding is almost sure.
The Future Center uses a Innovation Management Toolset that makes it possible to assess an opportunity in short time. The use of the Toolset is not for free. If you don’t have private funding you need about Euro 5,000 Private Capital to acquire money.
The Future Center is situated in Leiden and is connected to LIACS (Leiden Institute of Advanced Computing Science).
Currently we have made connections with the Region of Leiden, the Province of South Holland, the International Alliance of Future Centers and Europe of the Regions. LIACS is part of an International Scientific Networks. We are also connected to many Local, Regional, National and International Business Networks or Companies. This makes it possible to explore every Business, Government or Scientific opportunity.
Smart Systens will have a huge impact on Society, the IT-branche and of course on the users of IT (Consumers & Companies). To support this big (digital) transformation we have made contact with the NGI (the Dutch Organization of IT Professinals).
They have created a link with the Future Center in their SIG-structure (Special Interest Groups). Together with them we are defining a training program to help IT Professionals move to the next step.
Based on the Path of Change Model we use we have defined four basic views called Business Analist (Process, Sensors, Facts), Data Analist (Models, Analytics), Innovator (Imagination, Vision, Insight) and Community Manager (Social, Networks). The views can be combined into twelve roles that correspond with the Games of Path of Change.
Network of Smart Systems Specialists
We have made a connection with an International Network of Specialist that are already creating or supporting the creation of Smart Systems. This network is a Closed Cooperative that wants to maintain the high quality of people by sharing knowledge, experience, insight and customers.
We are now creating the Dutch part of this network. The network uses balloting by two members to enter. If you think you have the high quality needed send an email.
Connecting Small & Medium Enterprises
Although Big Companies are welcome we believe that the coming transformation will be done by networks of Small & Medium Enterprises.
This link contains the current portfolio. We are finishing an attempt to create a Smart System Architecture. A new project related to Smart Vital Infrastructure is in the making. At this moment the majority of the participants are busy in Smart Healthcare.
At 28-4-2014 the Future Center Smart Systems (FCSS) was launched At the same moment the Leiden Center of Data Science (LCDS) was announced. This is not a coincidence.
FCSS and LCDS are two parts of the same coin. LCDS is focused on the Science of Data and FCSS is focused on using the results of the Science of Data to build Smart Systems or to give the Science of Data interesting problems to solve. FCSS is Practice and LCDS is theory.
When we look at Wikipedia we see that the Data Sciences are defined as “The study of the generalizable extraction of knowledge from data”. Knowledge shows itself in this case as Models, Patterns and Laws (Rules).
The Data Sciences detect patterns based on facts and are an abstraction of the Scientific Process itself. The Data Sciences are therefore also called E-Science.
E-Science is a combination of: Signal processing, Mathematics, Probability models, Machine learning, Statistical learning, Computer programming, Data engineering, Pattern recognition and learning, Visualization, Uncertainty modeling, Data warehousing, and High performance computing.
Because E-Science is an abstraction of Science it can be applied to every science you can think of. In the case of the LCDS the current sciences that are involved are Physics, Astronomy, Bio-Science (Leiden Bioscience Park), Life-Sciences (Dutch Techcenter for Life Sciences, DTL), Medical Sciences (LUMC), Law (Leiden Law School), Aviation (NLR), Mathematics and Informatics (LIACS).
The FCSS is not only about E-Science it is also about using the patterns that are discovered to control processes and influence humans. In this case we are interested in the developments in Value, Case & Process-managers, Domain Models and Sensor-Technology. Theory is static and practice is dynamic. Theory becomes practice by doing.
In the long view we expect that the combination of Senses & Actions & Thinking Machines will lead to Autonomous Systems that will help and support Humans. These systems are sometimes called Robots because we believe Autonomous Systems look like us but an autonomous system like our Universe does not have to move itself.
The next step of the Future Center is to connect with practice, start with technology transfer and find out what the need is of the market.
The Future Center is already involved in some projects and we wants to start some more. If you are interested to participate in one of the projects or want to start a new projects send an email to email@example.com.
Smart System Architectures
Smart Systems need Smart System Architectures. They are a combination of existing architectures based on Process-Models & Sensor-Systems (the Sensory-Motor System) and new architecture that are related to Visualization (the Imagination), Analytics (Data, Process, Text, Software-mining (Thinking)) and Social Networks. (Emotions). The end state is called Global Brain (“The Singularity”).
Disclosure of Open Data (Repository, Data Warehouses/Data Cards, Visualization)
A lot of Open Data is entering the market. It is not clear where this data is situated and what the data means. In this case we need a Repository and tools to define what part of the data we need at this moment (a Data Warehouse, Data Cards). We need also tools to hide the complexity of the current open databases and makes it possible to show what is available (Visualization).
Smart Innovation (Business-model generation out of Big- & Open Data)
There are already many on-line tools available that support the innovation process. The data that is used in these tools (for instance market-data) has to be gathered to validate the models. We want to use the Data-sciences to gather appropriate market-data and detect interesting business-opportunities, To do that we want to use Big- and especially Open Data.
The value-chains are integrating and the customer is moving into control. Currently a value chain consists of many companies that use many not integrated and not connected legacy-systems. These systems contain data and process-models. We want to use the Data-Sciences to detect these models (Process-mining. Data-Mining, Software-Mining) and map them to available domain-models (ACCORD, ARTS,…) or develop shared domain-models. The data that is used in the value-chain can be mapped to a product-configurator. Last but not least the user-interaction with the customers has te be designed.
Smart Education (Just-in-Time Education)
Technology is changing fast. This has a huge impact on education. The current system of education is not able to react to the fast moving technology-waves because it is created to support the Industrial Revolution that ended around 1950. We are now beyond the next wave that is taking over manual work and moving into the next step in which the Human Brian is copied. The solution to this all, Life Long Education, is already invented a long time ago but we are not implementing this solution because the Current Education System is aimed at preventive education, trying to train people in the first stage of their life. The solution is Just-in-Time-Education, training people at the moment they need knowledge (DeepQA) or experience (Simulators).
Smart Buildings & Building Process (with ABN AMRO Dialogs House)
The Building Industry is already using 3D-Models (BIM). A BIM-model is a low-level product-configurator but the model can be moved to a higher level in which it is possible to share (and sell) complete Models (for instance a Hospital). The models can be used to simulate every attribute of a building and let the customers play with possible designs. The models can be used to calculate risk and most important optimize existing buildings (Facility Management). When we combine this with sensor-technology we are able to create adaptable buildings.
Smart Food Chain & Dietetics
The Food Value Chain will revert and the customer will be in control. At this moment the customers are educated with theories about food that are changing fast. “Good” Food is time, context and body-dependent. We want to make tools that use personal sensors that show the customer what they have to eat to stay healthy and tell them where and how they can buy this food.
Food & Health (with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
It is not clear what the impact is of Food on our Health. In this project we will analyze the complete food-chain.
Smart Urban Space (The Self Actualizing City)
This is an integration of the concepts of the Smart City, Integrated Value Chains, the Creative City and Smart Social Networks.
Next Generation Media
Media are at this moment based on the Sender/Receiver-concept. We want to use the Data Sciences to detect patterns, transform these patterns into text and images and implement a feed-back process with the customers.
Next Generation Theatre
We want to use the concept of 5D Film to create a new type of sensory and emotional experience.
Using new concepts like the Self-Driving Car & Sensor-Networks to optimize mobility in Big Cities.
Social Enterprises (Impact Finance, Social Bonds, Circular Systems, Cooperatives, Complementary Currencies)
The next generation enterprises has to be aware and reduce its impact on society and environment. In this project we also look the finance of Social Enterprises (Impact Finance, Social Bonds) but also at the circular economy, new organizational structures (cooperations, ) and new financial systems based on complementary currencies.
Preventing and resolving conflicts by implementing Smart Mediation.
Future Jobs (Unemployement & Sense-making, with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
What are the consequences of Smart Systems on employment?
Smart Care Systems
We want to use Smart Systems to help people that need Economic, Physical, Social and/or Mental Support.
Virtual Future Centers (with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
Future Centers are currently location-based. Future Centers look like Smart Systems because they Sense their environment, react (Process Manager) on the Events that are happening, try to predict what will happen (Analytics), involve Networks (Communitiies of Practice, Interest and/or Affinity) and Scientific Knowledge Centers (like the LCDS), create a shared Vision and put this vision into Action (Entrepeneurs, Innovators, Incubators). There are already many people busy with developing parts of the Virtual Future Center. We are currently designing an Architecture and will create an Alliance to join the efforts of all participants.
Paths of Change (PoC) is a Theory about Change that is based on the concept of the Worldview (Weltanschauung) This concept is very old and has many names (Archetype , Tatva, ..).
PoC uses four (complementary) worldviews plus a Center representing the whole.
In this blog, I use the same colors (blue, red, green, yellow, and white) for the same worldview.
What is a Smart System?
A Smart System looks like a human being. It is equipped with a Sensory-Motor-System, Mind, Imagination, and Emotions.
Smart Systems senses the outside (and his inside) world with much more sensor-types than the five sensors of his human look-a-like.
A Smart System is able to react very fast with its predefined processes on a event that is detected by its sensors.
A Smart System is an adaptable system. It is able to analyze and improve its behavior, communicate with a human being and other Smart Systems in an understandable way.
Smart Systems are there to compensate the human biases.
Smart Systems are able to transform and optimize everything that contains some kind of structure.
Smart Systems can optimize software, data, and content using software/data/text-mining, analyze patterns, predict the short and sometimes the long term.
Smart Systems are perfectly suited to provide the knowledge needed and answer the questions humans ask.
They are able to train humans in an almost real situation using simulators.
Smart Systems can be Fun to play with.
]In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. Dewey created a special institute called the Foundation for the Study of Cycles that is still in existence.
The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and are connected by a Harmonic (“Musical”) Pattern.
The Kondratiev Cycle
Dewey discovered that we cannot control the Cycles. Ups and downs are a fact of life.
The most researched Cycle in history by far is the Kondratiev-Cycle named after the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev.
The Kondratiev Cycle has a periodicity of 52 years.
The Kondratiev arises from the combination of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.
In the year 2000, the Kondratiev was at its top and is now in a decline that will take 26 years.
Currently, we are in the Kondratiev Spring Phase. It is the time of what Schumpeter, a big fan of Kondratiev, called Creative Destruction.
The old structures are dying and the new structures that will start the new upward wave are created. It is a time of tremendous disruptions.
About the Software Factory
The last wave that started around 1950 was dominated by the rise of the centralized computer.
This computer was based on the factory model of Henry Ford and Frederick Winslow Taylor of the previous wave.
Between 1950-2000 isolated creative programmers united in big software factories that are controlled by unified standardized methods and processes. Between 1950-2000 the programmers automated their own processes.
The methods are now transformed into standardized (BPML-) process models that are abstracted into standardized (VDML-) business models that are filled with Industry-Models. An example is the ARTS model that covers Retail.
Creative programmers are now replaced by creative business modelers.
The next Wave: the Human Mind
On Christmas 1990 Tim Berners-Lee working at CERN published the first version of The World Wide Web.
He launched the theme for the next wave, The Network.
From 1950 until 2000 the causal linear manual processes were automated but now the next level, the network of the human mind is at stake.
At the end of this wave around 2040 or much earlier as some people predict, the machines will imitate and surpass the human because they will unite in a global brain that can be connected to our Brains if we want that to happen.
At this moment we are creating the memory-banks of the Global Brain by producing billions of connected parts that contain complete human life’s, theories, music, movies, measurements and much more that we are now unable to imagine.
What almost nobody understands is that the Global Brain is not a machine made by humans but an expression of the Universe that was called de Deniurg or the Matrix. Have a look at this blog.
A Short Scenario for the Next Forty Years
It is clear that the Business-Domain-Models will speed up the process of value-chain-integration and value-chain-reversal.
This means that the customer will be in control of the value chain and there will be direct contact between customer and producer. Value-chain-integration will in the end remove all the intermediaries in the value chain.
Value chains will finally converge into one standardized value chain. Best practices of separate value chains will become leaders in the new value-chain. Cross-innovation, combining the best of all worlds, is the way to move on.
To give customers control of the value-chain producers have to simplify their products and make it possible for the customers to create their own version of the product they want.
Products have to become configurations of simple building blocks that can be split into variable parts and infrastructure. Product configurators will connect to other configurators. This makes it possible to create completely new combinations.
In the next step, the data that is produced by the systems will be analyzed and processes will not be controlled by human-made models but by models that are created by statistical pattern recognition tools.
The systems will understand humans and predict human behavior and adapt themselves to human needs.
In the last stage, the software will produce an image that reduces the complexity of its whole.
It will create a virtual human world that gives us the illusion that we are still in control.
At that time most people will play and not work.
The most important question you have to ask yourself is if your company is part of the “old world” that will finally be destructed by creativity or is already part of the new wave.
The big problem is change management, how to move from the current state to a for most companies and institutions unknown future. Companies, Institutions and People have to transform their collaboration patterns, their software, their data and their expertise.
The change process is accelerating. Almost all companies and institutions (and governments) are stuck in their installed base of software and their hierarchical organization structure that is not created to respond fast to the challenges that come from the outside word.
The Golden Age
Around 2026 we will move to the Kondratiev Summer , a top of the EconomicCycle but we will also move from the Age of Piscus to the Age of Aquarius in the very Long Term cycle of the Precession.
This cycle was already known >5000 years ago and was used to direct the strategy of the people at the Top of Ancient Society (“Pharao’s, Emperors, Popes).
Wednesday the 23th of April 2014 13:00 – 17:00 we want to launch the Future Center Smart Systems.
The meeting will take place in the Living Lab of the The Hague Centre for Innovation, 2nd floor Campus Den Haag, Schouwburgstraat 2, 2511 VA Den Haag.
The Future Center is an initiative of LIACS, Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science and Constable Research BV.
A Future Center is a place of dialogue and innovation.
Scientific research needs complicated real-life problems to solve to improve their theories. R&D wants to use proven solutions to improve or innovate their products or services.
R&D and Science can easily work together if the long-term strategy of Science matches with the short-term needs of Industry and Government. That is why we need to have a permanent dialogue.
We want to start a dialogue about Smart Systems between Scientific Research and the R&D of big and small companies and government agencies.
Smart Systems are and will be everywhere. Smart Systems control the car you (still) drive and the planes you fly. Smart Systems trade on the stock market, diagnose your illness and design sustainable buildings.
Smart Systems will manage courts & lawyers, cities, logistics and food safety. Smart Systems will entertain you and will stimulate your imagination. Smart Systems will even help you to innovate.
They are a combination of Analytics (Big Data), Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, Process/Case-Managers, Robots, Sensors (The Internet of Things), Simulators, Games, Intelligent User-Interaction (Augmented & Virtual Reality) and Social Networks.
The Smart Systems Future Center aims to help you find out what is happening with new technologies and its applications, what is already possible and what will be possible in the future.
We also want to discuss the big impact Smart Systems will have on our society. Many experts believe Smart Systems will lead to a huge increase of unemployment not only on the level of the not educated people but also on the level of the highly educated.
Others believe that the Smart Systems (“the machines, the robots”) will take over the World. They believe that this moment called the Singularity is near. It is certain that Smart Systems will disrupt almost every company in the world.
To prepare you for the future we want to connect people, companies and government agencies. We want to participate in projects and start the development of new research, new services or companies. We can also help with the funding of these projects.
In the first meeting representatives of other Future Centers in the Netherlands (ABN AMRO, Tax Office, Ministry of Infrastucture) will share their experiences, we want to tell you about the state of the art in Big Data and have an interactive discussion about our future plans and priorities and how you want to be part of this dialogue.
If you are interested to come to the meeting or want to be informed by email about what we are doing please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. If you know people who could be interested to join our Future Center please forward this link to them.