Sinds de komst van de Ziggo harddiskrecorder een paar jaar geleden kijk ik iedere dag een dag vooruit om te zien of er een documentaire of film op de TV komt die ik wil opnemen. Op die manier kan ik doen en laten wat ik wil en mis ik alle reclame.
Een tijdje geleden viel mijn oog op de 5-delige BBC-serie The genius of design. Die werd door het Belgische Canvas uitgezonden. Al snel ontdekte ik dat de serie ook op YouTube te bekijken was.
Hier wordt duidelijk zichtbaar dat er een ontkoppeling plaats aan het vinden is tussen zender en inhoud. Binnenkort kun je via de Apple- of Google-TV op ieder gewenst moment TV kijken naar wat je maar wilt.
In deel 2 van de serie gaat het over het begin van de vorige eeuw. In die tijd ontstaat het kale functionalisme van het Bauhaus als reactie op de sensuele Jugendstil. Daarnaast protesteert de Arts & Craft beweging tegen de goedkope en lelijke producten van de industriële revolutie.
De makers van de serie laten zien dat er in de Verenigde Staten een eigen beweging ontstaat die zich verbindt met de grootschalige productie-processen van Ford en Taylor.
In de Amerikaanse filosofie moeten de verleiding van de buitenkant van de Jugendstil, de kwaliteitsbeleving van de Arts & Craft beweging en de functionele binnenkant van de Bauhaus-filosofie allemaal worden gerelateerd aan de behoefte van de consumenten-markt.
Die consumenten waren de arbeiders die in de VS voldoende inkomen gingen verdienen om de in hun eigen fabrieken gemaakte producten te kopen. De Amerikaanse Design-beweging vormt het begin van de massamarkt.
Tijdens mijn geboortejaar (1951) wordt in Nederland het massamedium de televisie geïntroduceerd. In een paar jaar tijd heeft die ook mijn woonwijk bereikt en zit ik met mijn vriendjes bij de buurvrouw op woensdagmiddag betaald (1 dubbeltje) te kijken naar “de Verrekijker” en tante Hannie. De werkelijkheid zit in een door anderen geconstrueerd kastje.
Al snel staart de hele familie naar een verre buitenwereld die steeds meer virtueel wordt. De door de media-business geconstrueerde content neemt de werkelijkheid stap voor stap over.
Door de toenemende doofheid van mijn vader moeten we in de woonkamer allemaal onze mond houden anders hoort hij het niet. Afgelopen zijn de familie-spelletjes, het lezen van een boek en het luisteren naar muziek. De televisie eist alle aandacht op.
In 1977 introduceert Apple een TV-Scherm met computer en toetsenbord en is de massa-markt van de Personal Computer geboren.
In 1985 komt Microsoft (MS) met de eerste versie van het grafische Windows-operating systeem op de markt waardoor er ook met de computer kan worden gespeeld. MS specialiseert zich in bewegingsspellen door het besturingssysteem Kinect te ontwikkelen.
Tot op heden wordt steeds hetzelfde scherm van heel groot tot heel klein als kijkmiddel gebruikt maar daar komt nu snel verandering in.
We gaan overstappen, als we dat willen natuurlijk, naar een realistische 3D-ervaring. Die wordt binnenkort aangeboden door onder meer Google met Glass, Facebook met Oculus Rift en nu door Microsoft met HoloLens.
Hololens maakt gebruik van een projectietechniek die Virtual Reality (VR) wordt genoemd. De echte wereld en de computer-gesimuleerde wereld worden over elkaar heen geprojecteerd.
Hierdoor heb je in theorie geen scherm en geen bedieningssysteem meer nodig en kun je alles met je handen (via de Kinect) en je stem doen.
Natuurlijk is dit nog niet het einde. De ontwikkelaars hebben de Matrix en het Holodeck voor ogen als ultieme gesimuleerde werkelijkheid.
Om die mogelijk te maken moet er een directe koppeling komen tussen computer en de hersenen. Dat betekent dat de HoloHelm vervangen zal moeten worden door de Matrix Brain-PlugIn.
Anti-fragile (a term coined by Nassim Taleb) systems are resilient systems that benefit and grow from shocks and stress. A body benefits from training (= stress) but too much training destroys the body. Even anti-fragile systems have boundaries.
The term “Resilience” comes from Latin resiliere, “to spring back, start back, rebound, recoil, retreat”, and is often intended and defined as the ability to cope with or recover from change.
Fragile systems are destroyed by a low level of stress or a small crash. Fragile systems have to be protected by resilient systems otherwise they break.
Resilience is defined as: “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks” (Brian Walker).
Resilience corresponds to the Aristotelian concept of entelechy “exercising activity in order to guarantee one’s identity”.
Resilience shows the boundaries to sustainability. It shows what type of systems are able to survive a long time of low/medium stress or a short duration of high stress.
The resilience of a system is influenced by the level of outside disorder the system has to cope with and the internal state of the system itself.If you increase the size of a fragile system, it becomes more fragile. If you increase the size of an anti-fragile system, it becomes more anti-fragile.
For the fragile, the cumulative effect of small shocks is smaller than the single effect of an equivalent a single large shock. A fragile entity is hurt a lot more by extreme events than by a succession of intermediate ones.
Big systems are almost always anti-fragile unless they are one-sided. In this case they are an easy target for a one-sided big calamity.
Agile systems are many sided. They are able to react and adapt to different situations all the time. They have no robust structure that connects their components. Agile Systems are fluent.
Anti-Agile systems resist change. They protect their interior with huge boundaries.
Resilience resolves the opposition between internal order (stable) and external disorder (volatile, not stable).
In the end the disorder (entropy) always wins. It wins by making every thing the same.
Humans are forward foragers with a bilateral circular brain.
This brain creates paradoxes by constantly uniting (zoom-in) and not-uniting (zoom-out).
Humans want to protect themselves for what could happen in the future.
Humans need social structures to become resilient. In these structures they have to balance the paradox of selflessness and not-selflessnes (selfishness).
Humans want to be a wHole and part of a wHole.
In the first part of this blog we explore human resilience. Human resilience has a lot to do with Maslow’s Pyramid of Human Needs.
Resilience happens when we actualize our Self (our wHole), when body, mind, spirit and soul are in balance.
Paths of Change (PoC) is the name of a theory about Change. PoC is used in this blog as a general scale-free reference model.
PoC is based on four Worldviews that show themselves on every scale with different names. Body, mind, spirit and soul are used on the human scale. What happens on the human scale happens on every scale. As Above so Below.
Humans have bodily mechanisms that keep them from growing boundlessly. Social structures tend to expand beyond the limit.
Nature uses positive (increase) and negative (decrease) feed-back to control growth. When too much growth is measured by the bodily sensors the not-growth system is activated.
The anthropologist Alan Fiske has created a model that classifies human relations. The model of Fiske is compatible with PoC.
Fiske explains his model with measurement theory and structure preserving mappings. We measure others the same way we measure objects and situations.
The most flexible structure preserving mapping, the symmetric groep (combinations), explains the most selfless human relation, Communal Sharing.
Communal Sharing is Agile. Every time when the environment changes new combinations can be made. A sharing community looks like a living system and achieves resilience by repeating the same proven functionality in a different way.
The less flexible mapping is standardization. In this case we are focused on efficiency. By reducing the complexity of our reality (analytics) we are preparing the way for the machines to take over.
Standardization and the related Market-Pricing Social Structure is anti-agile.
Hierarchic analytic structures (Authority Ranking Social Structure) have big problems with adapting. That is why they want to control everything. They become fragile (and die) when they are disconnected from the rest of the social structures.
Anti-fragility is related to Equality Matching, the social structure of the Creators. The creators are needed to make sure that the diversity of the system is not going down to the level of Collapse.
Resilience has to do with Category Theory, Combinatorics, Fractals, Symmetry-Breaking and Scaling.
A combination of highly stable flexible structures is repeated on every Level of Scale.
Systems are a structure preserving mapping from physical space to mental space.
Systems have Potential (Components/Resources/Connections), Possibility (Mental State Space, Combinations), Plan (One Occurrence of a Possible Combination of Components), Practice (Physical World, Flow, Input, Process, Output) and Protection (Boundary).
The output of a System is the Input of another System.
Boundaries are not walls. They are semi-permeable filters. Just like the walls of a city they contain gates to let the good things in and throw the bad things (waste) out. When you destroy the boundary, the system falls apart.
Sensors are the gates in de wall of the boundary. They determine what the system is able to perceive. Sensors are selectors. They divide the outside world in two parts, the perceived world and the not-perceived world.
Systems produce cascades of events. Events are reactions of other systems to events of other systems. The resilience of a system is dependent on the resilience of its parts and the whole, the ecology, it is part of.
The behavior of a system and the environmental demands upon it are related. This relationship is established through the selection of systems that continue to survive in the environment. A system is a mirror of its environment.
After a destructive event a system can be repaired or restore itself in a certain timeframe. Pushed to the extreme, a system may also transform itself into a completely different structure because the components are put into another Order.
This order is functional or not-functional. In the last situation the structure is left behind and will deteriorate because everything deteriorates on the long term.
Another Order can be caused by a new shuffle of the cards or a new principle that defines why a component has more value than others.
At the End of Time called the Big Freeze everything will be the same. That’s why there is a constant fight between diversity and equality.
Diversity moves against the flow of the Universe and is therefore always a temporary state.
3. About Evolution
Extreme stress kills a system but stimulates a new evolutionary path.
‘“In fact, the most interesting aspect of evolution is that it only works because of its antifragility; it is in love with stressors, randomness, uncertainty, and disorder — while individual organisms are relatively fragile, the gene pool takes advantage of shocks to enhance its fitness”. (Nassim N. Taleb)
Nassim Taleb’s body of work on uncertainty reminds us that we should focus on the non-perishable and avoid some of the pitfalls of modernity, like our constant desire to fetishize the ‘new’.
Bicycles, kitchens and cars are all very similar to what they were thirty years ago. “Once in a while you have a breakthrough like the computer but otherwise, it pretty much stayed the same. If anything, we use technologies to produce old goods in a cheaper manner“.
Evolution is a combinatorial game that tries to improve the whole. Evolution reuses parts of the old structure and adds something new by creating new connections.
4. About the Dual Brain
In the beginning the chemical soup generated self-reproducing chemical factories. These factories combined into bigger factories by exchanging and combining their factory-designs (DNA-parts).
Every time when the factories fused they became more efficient, bigger, stronger, older and therefore more competitive. When the factories became more competitive they started to protect themselves against the other factories.
To protect themselves the multi-cellular systems began to sense in many directions and became better and better in predicting the future.
Humans are clusters of bacteria. In the first stage of our evolution, the Sponge, the cluster was static. In the next stage the cluster began to move in circels and developed a radial brain (a nerve net).
Humans are part of the Bilateria, organisms that forage forward. We make use of a radial connected dual brain in which one part is synthetic and the other part is analytic.
The dual brain is a paradox. It unites and not-unites.
Humans use a combination of three bilateral brains: the brain of the reptiles, the social brain of the mammals, and the neocortex, our own calculating talking mind.
This triple brain is a good example of an evolutionary process in which old structures were reused and new parts were added.
The reptile brain of the body gathers data by its sensors and reacts (Stimulus/Response) with the motor-system.
The social brain looks for a partner (to create children), friends, family and competitors to fight/flight or to freeze with (enemies). The enemy is something the social brain shares with the reptile brain.
The neo-cortex is the computer. It is able to reason about the causal chains that are sensed by the social and body brain.
The imagination (spirit) controls the whole of the brain and the body and is situated in the thalamus. The thalamus projects the calculations of the neocortex on our internal screen.
5. About Human Civilization
In our earliest societies humans lived as hunter-gatherers.
The first step towards civilization is the move from hunter-gatherer to agriculture with the domestication and farming of wild crops and animals.
Agricultural production leads to food surpluses and this in turn supports sedentary societies, rapid population growth, and specialization of labor.
Large societies tend to develop ruling classes and supporting bureaucracies, which leads to larger organizations that want to control the world.
For a very long time the hierarchy was the most important control-system in use.
Currently the center of the system is moving from the top to the bottom because of the rise of communication technology (Internet).
6. About Human Needs
Maslow’s famous Hierarchy of Needs included five motivational needs divided into basic (or deficiency) needs (e.g. physiological, safety, love, and esteem) and growth needs (self-actualization).
A violation of a need motivates a human into action. When the violation is too big (a disaster) most humans get into violent action (fight), flight the disaster zone or freeze and don’t do anything. The fight/flight/freeze-respons is related to the reptile brain.
The needs can be divided into four independent categories: (1) The needs of the body, (2) The social needs, (3) The needs of the mind and (4) the needs of the spirit (growth, creativity, insight, idea, identity, whole).
The spirit is the power that stimulates us to reach the Top of the Pyramid of Maslow, to become a whole, realize our potential and find self-fulfillment. With the imagination humans get insight about the future and make plans to prevent calamities.
The mind expands to its ultimate potential by training. It needs to find patterns to control and predict its environment. This has to do with the so called “Illusion of Control“. Too much control (paranoid) generates the fear to lose control.
The body expands to its ultimate potential by physical exercise (but not too much exercise).
The spirit (or self) grows by exploring every thing and keeping the good.
The soul needs many others to praise him/her. To much praise creates the state of narcissism, the soul is in love with its self (spirit).
Human needs are constant through all human cultures and across historical time periods. What changes over time and between cultures is the way these needs are satisfied.
Human needs are interrelated and interactive. Some needs are conflicting. Others are synergic.
An attempt to satisfy one need can inhibit or destroy others. For example, an Arms Race satisfies the need for protection, while destroying the need for subsistence, freedom or participation.
Humans feel happy when the four conflicting and synergic needs are in balance. When their needs are in balance they are able to handle small and big, positive and negative events.
7. About Holmes Life Event Scale
In 1967, psychiatrists Thomas Holmes and Richard Rahe examined the medical records of over 5,000 medical patients as a way to determine whether stressful events might cause illnesses. He found that a disturbance of social needs has the highest impact in life.
8. About the Kubler Ross Transition Curve
The Kubler Ross Transition Curve shows how people react when a mostly social (loss of partner) life event becomes too big to handle.
In this case the resilience of the human fails. The first step in the transition is controlled by the Fight, Flight, Freeze Respons of the Sensory-Motor System.
9. About the Human Set-Point
Set Point Theory predicts that wellbeing tends to fluctuate around a level that generally remains uniform over time.
An event of which the pulse is bigger than the bandwidth of the fluctuation around the set-point triggers the FFF-respons of the reptile brain.
After sometimes a very long time of grieve eventually a human returns to his personal fluctuating path.
Set Point Theory shows that Life is a Cyclic Proces that always tries to restore it self. The stability of wellbeing can be ascribed to a dynamic equilibrium model, a homeostasis.
The tangible mechanisms that underpin homeostasis (resilience) are wealth (potential) and relationships (connectedness).
If individuals experience negative events, compromising their immediate wellbeing, they can utilize some of their wealth to purchase resources that can be utilized to defend these problems.
Similarly, they can utilize the support and intimacy of other people in their life, especially partners and children.
The other mechanisms are cognitive processes. For example, individuals can reconceptualize their goals to accommodate negative events.
If debilitated by age or disease, they can derive meaning from other pursuits. They can trivialize the importance of adversities.
People who respond rapidly to a threat with a surge of the stress hormones adrenaline, noradrenaline and cortisol and recover quickly cope better with stressful situations.
Resilient people are better at using the hormone dopamine to keep them positive. They have a healthily large hippocampus which as well as enabling the formation of new memories also helps regulate the release of the fight-or-flight hormone adrenalin and have a strongly active prefrontal cortex, the brain region dubbed ‘the seat of rational thinking’.
This inhibits the amygdala, the part of the brain that processes negative emotions such as fear and anger, allowing the prefrontal cortex to come up with a sensible plan to cope with a threat.
The Human Set-Point moves up when you are young & down when you are old and is highly influenced by extreme life-events.
Such an event triggers the Sensory Motor System and almost stops the other Systems (Emotions, Imagination, Rationality) until the Pulse has dampened.
Stress and adversity can come in the shape of family or relationship problems, health problems, or workplace and financial stressors, among others.
The primary factor in resilience is having positive relationships inside or outside one’s family.
There are several other factors which develop and sustain a person`s resilience:
(1) The ability to make realistic plans and being capable of taking the steps necessary to follow through with them.
(2) A positive self-concept and confidence in one’s strengths and abilities.
(3) Communication and problem-solving skills.
(4) The ability to manage strong impulses and feelings.
Ultimately resilience is a process of connectedness, of linking to people, to interests, and ultimately to life itself.
The seven aspects of Resilience are:
Access to material resources (Availability of financial, educational, medical and employment assistance and/or opportunities, as well as access to food, clothing and shelter).
Access to supportive relationships (Relationships with significant others, peers and adults within one’s family and community).
Development of a desirable personal identity (Desirable sense of one’s self as having a personal and collective sense of purpose, ability for self-appraisal of strengths and weaknesses, aspirations, beliefs and values, including spiritual and religious identification).
Experiences of power and control (Experiences of caring for one’s self and others, the ability to effect change in one’s social and physical environment in order to access health resources).
Adherence to cultural traditions (Adherence to, or knowledge of, one’s local and/or global cultural practices, values and beliefs).
Experiences of social justice (Experiences related to finding a meaningful role in one’s community that brings with it acceptance and social equality)
Experiences of a sense of cohesion with others (Balancing one’s personal interests with a sense of responsibility to the greater good; feeling a part of something larger than one’s self socially and spiritually).
Antonovsky (1979) researched the human ability of being able to integrate extremely stressful life events in one’s own worldview.
He proposed an approach to the origins of health based on the assumption that the human environment causes strain. The stressors responsible for this may be genetic, microbiological, personal, economic, social, cultural or geo-political.
The normal state of the human organism is one of disorder and conflict rather than stability and homeostasis. Antonovsky focused on making order out of chaos, and emphasized the importance of coping resources in dealing with stress.
He sought a construct that would characterize the shared components of a wide variety of generalized resistance resources, such as childhood living circumstances, social support, cultural stability, education and income, and that might explain how they facilitate coping with stressors and promoting health.
Consequently, he found that what these various generalized resistance resources have in common is a life orientation, which he called sense of coherence (SOC). SOC has three main components: comprehensibility, manageability and meaningfulness.
12. About Human Resilience – Forces in Balance
Human Resilience is accomplished when the four parts of the human are in balance. The four parts are synergetic and conflicting. The best way to describe them is to see them as forces that are represented by vectors.
The vectors of the human powers point in different directions (Up, Down, Forward, Backward) just like the Forward Forager of Ken Wilber.
In a balanced situation they cancel each other out.
Resilience is possible when the Sum of the four Forces of the Human: Mind (Up, Abstraction), Body (Right, Forwards to the Future, Cause/Effect), Spirit (Left, Back to the Whole, the Source) and Soul (Down to Earth) is close to zero.
To handle a big Event there has to be enough surplus Potential (Components/Resources/Connections) available to act.
The most important Support System for humans is their social network.
Humans Need Humans is a recursive (Fractal) statement.
13. About Paths of Change
Paths of Change (PoC) is a general theory about Change developed by Will McWhinney. PoC is used in this blog to compare all kinds of theories and find the best of all worlds.
PoC makes use of the concept of World Views. A World View is an independent way to look at the world.
The term View is perhaps confusing because some people don’t look at the world at all. They feel, imagine or think about the World.
There are four basic World Views that Will McWhinney named Unity (“I know there is only one Truth”), Sensory (“The World is a Network of Causal Chains”), Mythic (“I Imagine my own World”) and Social (“The World is what the Network of Others value”).
“Normal” people are able to play with two (or more) world views. Pathological People use only one Worldview.
The four World Views are described by two variables called Agency and Communion.
Agency emphasises the Self as a distinct unit; it focuses on the persons own individual Influence. Agency has two states (1) I am in Control or (2) Something (or Somebody) is Controlling me.
Communion is a motive for the Connection with an Other; it is a motive to participate in a larger Union. Communion has also two states (3) I am alone (4) I am connected.
Behind the two variables lies a 1D model, the model of the Bilateral Brain, Left-Expansion/Analytic (0->) and Righ-Compression/Synthetic (0<-).
Path of Change uses a 2D-model in which the two states are combined: 0->0->, <-o<-0, 0-><-0, <-00->.
There is a Fifth Worldview that is outside the 2×2-matrix in 3D. It represents the Observer/Consciousness. In 2D is shows itself in the Cross in the middle of the matrix.
Path of Change is a Fractal Theory
Worldviews can be connected. Controlling (Unity) a human who wants to commune (Social) is called Politics. It is also possible to apply a worldview to another worldview. Abstracting (Unity) Human Relations becomes a Social Network.
Path of Change is an Ancient Theory
Path of Change is an ancient theory. It was known and used all over the world with different names and implementations. The worldviews were translated into visible Star Systems (Zodiac), People (“Gods” (India, Egypt,..)), Animals (Medicine Wheel), Games (Chess, Cards (TARO-T)) or Regulations (Laws (China), Religions).
A good example is China. In China Paths of Change was called the Sheng Cycle. In the Sheng Cycle the Observer was projected in the 2D-matrix by introducing a fifth view.
The Sheng Cycle was used to model the body (Acupuncture), the material context (buildings, city, ecology) (Feng Shui) and the state & society (Sun Tsu (the Art of War)).
The organs, the body, the community, the state and the universe were seen as Flow Systems of Energy (Chi) that get into trouble when the flow is disrupted.
This disruption can be caused by blockages or by an input (an event) that is too big or too small to handle. The solution to a problem is to open one channel without causing too much overflow at another point in the system. The diagnosis is done on a place in the system (the pulse) where all the systems get together.
Old Chinese Scientists have developed all kinds of correspondence-tables between worldviews and situations. This makes it possible to reuse a theory by changing the semantics.
About Path of Change and Life Events
Path of Change describes the Paths along people (or organizations, or societies) change.
This change is triggered by an external or internal Event. Events are handled by the Sensory-Motor-System.
From the Sensory-Motor-System, the Event can bounce back to the Sensory-Motor-System which reacts with the Fight, Flight, Freeze Respons (FFFR, “I am Afraid”).
The event can propagate further to the Emotions (I Feel what Matters in this Situation), The Imagination (I See What has happened) or the Pattern-Recognition State of Thinking (I know what happened).
The event moves further in the Network until the pulse of the Event comes back to the Sensory-Motor System that Reacts.
Paths of Change are Feed-Back-Systems that try to adapt the human Body (Sensory-Motor), Mind (Patterns, Memory), Emotions or Identity (Imagination) to the current situation.
The possible amount of steps and Time an event travels in the Internal Network cannot be calculated. There are sixteen (4×4) possible paths of length two and many more when the path rotates (with- or against the Clock) and loops through the network. It can take many years before the body acts upon an event.
The FFFR-respons offers a very fast-reaction mechanism which uses predefined scripts when the system evaluates that the Event will be fatal.
The way Events are handled is determinated by the combination of the Worldviews of the Person (his Personality) at stake and his experience (Memory). Almost fatal events are stored in memory.
14. About Resilience – Homeostasis
A Homeostatis is a System that determinates what action(s) will compensate an Event and keep the total System in balance.
Our Mind (Unity, Neocortex) is a Homeostasis that controls the Homeostasis of Our (Social, Limbic) Emotions that controls the Homeostasis of the Sensory Reptilian Brain. This part of the brain is concerned with survival.
The thinking Mind, the social Emotions (Soul), the active Sensory-Motor System (Body) and the creative Imagination (Spirit) are coordinated by the thalamus. The thalamus could be the fourth and most ancient brain.
The System (“the whole”, Mythic) has to react to an Event in the Environment but it also has to keep its state of Homeostasis (“Balance”) on all levels.
Last but not least the system has to replace every part that is not able to play its role in the system. This process is called autopoiesis.
Cells are killed (apoptosis) when they don’t fit in the overall picture. Between 50 and 70 billion cells die each day due to apoptosis in the average human adult. For an average child between the ages of 8 and 14, approximately 20 billion to 30 billion cells die a day.
The Four Worldview’s are (Fractal sub-)Systems that keep their own balance and act as sensors for the other sub-systems.
The sub-systems contain sub-sub-systems (Body, Organ, Cell, …) that all have to stay in balance (or die) and send their signals on their own level (electro-magnetic, chemical, ..) using their own communication-infrastructure to their own control center that is monitored by a higher level control center (etc. etc).
The systems are also part of super(-super-super-systems) (Family, Social Group, Organization, …Universe).
The System of Systems (of Systems, …) develops itself in the same pattern as the system itself. Mind (Unity) moves Up, Body/Matter mover Right (Causal), Social/Soul moves Down and Mythic (Imagination) moves Left (back to the Source).
If the four forces are in balance the total system expands and compresses in a Spiral Pattern. The same pattern as we see in the Ancient Cathedrals.
The nice thing is that on every level you look (or analyze, or evaluate, or sense, or see) the same structure comes back so you don’t have to create a new structure to get a better insight.
When you believe PoC is a self-referencing (“fractal”) system you can apply what you know if you are able to distinguish the right level/scale of the many scales there are. If you mix up scales the whole system looks like a big mess.
Just like the five elements in the generating (with-the-clock) Sheng Cycle (or the against-the clock destructing Wu Cycle) every Worldview is connected to the others views and compensates (is a Homeostasis for) another Worldview and vice-versa.
There are twelve connections possible between different views and four with the same view which brings the total amount of possible connection on 16 (4×4).
Mythic, the Interest of the Self compensates the Interest of the Group (Social).
Social (Emotions, Down, Earth) compensates Unity (Abstraction, Up, Sky, Mind).
Sensory (Sense & React, Forwards to the Outside) compensates Mythic (Imagination, Insight, Backwards to Inside).
The Consciousness (“the fifth worldview”) monitors the four Worldview’s and triggers a worldview that brings the system in another state that triggers a new worldview that brings the system in another state (etc etc).
Worldview’s trigger other Worldview’s directly or move to a higher state of abstraction (Mind) that is able to move to a higher abstraction until it has to move back to Earth (Soul/Social).
The system is constantly adapting its adaptions until it dies.
Adaption can only happen when the transport/communication-channels are not blocked and the system is able to remove the blockages in the channels.
15. About Flow Systems
The old Chinese scientists believed that every level of our universe is a Flow System that consists of five connected parts. Disturbances in the system are resolved by opening the channels between the parts that are disconnected.
The cosmic dance-cycle of Nataraja (Shiva) is controlled by a drum.
The Scientists of our time see an ecology (and a body and an organization and a city and…..) as a material transport network (an Infrastructure) which distributes energy, information and matter between big macroscopic reservoirs (f.i. Lungs/Air/UP) and small microscopic sites (f.i. Alveoli/Blood/Water/Flow) on many “rhythmic” levels.
The macroscopic reservoirs are filled by repeating macroscopic processes (“weather”, “breath”, “market”) that are controlled by a macroscopic time-giver, the Drum of Shiva, a Clock, our Sun or our Heart.
When a flow system (Bloodvessels, Artery) is disturbed (Arteriosclerosis) it solves its problems by creating a “bypass”. Bypasses create bypasses (create bypasses, …) until it is impossible to change the physical environment (f.i. granite). Bypasses generate a repeating (fractal) structure.
This structure looks like a hierarchy when you look Top-Down and like a Flow-System when you look with an Input (From)/Output (To)-view. In essence it brings the Many (Sensory)-to-the One (Unity).
Nature solves its scaling problems by evolving fractal networks. The Law of Kleiber shows that big fractal flow-structures live longer (are more resilient) and are more efficient than small structures. Cities grow because of their shared fysical infrastructures.
Big Cities are also more creative than small cities because of the amount of possible contacts between creative minds. It is clear that the Internet is taking over this function.
16. About Human Networks
Human networks are an organism capable of behaviors that are of greater complexity than those of an individual human being.
Humans networks are an abstraction (Unity) of human relations. They are the most important support structure for a human to become resilient.
Humans are two-sided. Human Networks are 12-sided. They are a combination of the 4-fold-Cycle X 4-Cycle without repetition (4**2-4).
That is why there are 12 Star-Systems in the Zodiac (12 + the Sun = 13), 12 Suns of Jacob, 12 Tribes of Israel, 12 Disciples of Jesus (12+the One = 13) and 12 Knights of the Round Table (12 + Arthur = 13).
The anthropologist Alan Fiske created a 4-fold model that describes how groups of people cooperate.
The four relational models correspond perfectly with the four World-Views of PoC.
The fact that you can use PoC to classify a part of PoC (Social) proves that PoC is a fractal theory.
Social Structures are just like PoC nested combinations of the elementary relationship models:
In equality relationships there is no authority between people nor is there the deeper responsibility towards one another as in the communal sharing model. Social relationships are long-term and monitored for balance.
Equality matched relationships generally collaborate around shared goals and help one another. Relationships are reciprocal and have equal value. People treat fairly those who treat them fairly.
Relationships are structured by proportions. In the market pricing model, the relationship is based around a transaction, where the parties exchange substantive items, often with money being a part of the transaction. Such relationships may be shorter than others and more formal, even with an explicit or implied contract to formalize the exchange.
17. About Resilience – How to Preserve Structure in a Social Network
Alan Fiske found out that each of the relationship models resembles one of the classic scale types from measurement theory. We measure others the same way we measure objects and situations.
Measurement starts in de Sensory-mode. Measurement captures information about a system. A system consists of objects, processes, and phenomenon. The system is measured through the attributes of the system also known as characteristics, features, or properties.
Measurement does not directly represent the system. It only addresses the attributes selected to represent it.
All measurement is carried out within a context. This context is shaped by a purpose, existing knowledge, capabilities, and resources; all of which influence the measurement process.
Measurements can be made through the human senses or made through use of a measurement instrument, which is an apparatus or construct used for measurement.
Measurement is the assignment of numerals to a system according to a set of rules. These rules are called a theory.
Our senses or the instruments that are used to measure the system also represent a theory. This theory has a sometimes unknown impact on our measurement.
A theory has to be a structure preserving mapping, a homomorphism. The structure of the system has to stay the same when the rules are applied.
If the theory does not preserve structure the theory introduces its own theory and we are not measuring the original system.
Not only the primary theory has to be a homomorphism. The complete chain of theories we use has to preserve the structure (The Uniqueness Axioma) of the original system.
If a system has to be a resilient system its transformations have to be structure-preserving.
A nominal scale distinguishes Sets. Sets contain Points. Every point is the same as the other points. Points that are the same can be connected by a line.
Sets are split by a distinction made by the filters of the senses. A distinction puts things into non-overlapping categories such as smokers versus non-smokers. There are zero smokers in the class of non-smokers and zero non-smokers in the class of smokers. You can count the amount of points in a class. The zero point of the class is the not-class.
A nominal scale classifies things into categories. The classes are equal. The process of division starts with a whole (One) and divides the whole in parts (Many) after which the parts become a new Whole. Repeated application of a distinction generates a Set of Sets.
A nominal scale defines Sets. Sets contain the same elements. When we want to preserve this structure we have to satisfy the constraint If s1 = s2 ⇔ f(s1) = f(s2) (“the Same stays the Same”). This is called the Symmetric group, the group of all permutations of the objects in the Set.
Living systems achieve resilience by repeating (redundancy) the same functionality in a different way (diversity) and on a different location (distribution). This all is an example of symmetry. Humans are bilateral symmetric. We have two eyes, legs, arms, kidneys, lungs and brain-halves.
Communal Sharing (Social) is the most resilient/symmetric group there is. Every new order (a permutation) of the objects has the same value. New combinations are created all the time and time will tell what their value will be.
If combinations are valued we as a human are creative enough to imagine a reason (“a new selection-mechanism, a distinction”) why the new combination is important.
Communal Sharing is Agile.
(2) Authority Ranking (Unity, Mind, Human Brain) is called an Ordinal Scale. This scale is used when we want to express Comparative Judgement about the observed system.
In nature, all things we observe are nominal. It is we who choose to order (i.e., count) them, in some way according to some theory we propose.
A further step is to transform these orderings into linear measures which are more useful to us. If we construct a theory with a useful “zero” location (as opposed to zero difference), then we can measure away from that zero point.
The members of a class are ordered from the One to Many by a rule that defines what greater (or less) means. It permits the measurement of degrees of difference, but not the specific amount of difference.
The step Sensory -> Social is called Evaluate. Evaluation is putting members of a Set in a favorite (like) or non-favorite (don’t like) permutation. In the Unity-mode like and don’t like are mapped to high and low (or important & not-important).
This is only possible when we are able to find a difference that we can count. Smoking can be defined by the amount of cigarettes a person smokes or the amount of nicotine he inhales.
Sometimes it is impossible to find an amount (what is the amount of “Love”?) and we have to change the distinction and the attribute we want to measure or stop measuring and accept what we observe the way it is.
The ordinal scale is part of the nominal scale. The relational structure preserved during the measurement process preserves equality and order. The set of admissible transformations are relations that satisfy the constraint If s1 < or >s2 ⇔ f(s1) < or >f(s2).
This is called the Order-Preserving Group and is the group of monotonic increasing functions. A monotonic function does not contain Ups AND Downs. It contains Ups or Downs (= not-Ups).
The step Social (Many) -> Unity ((One) is called Seeking Consensus about a Rule. Because this mapping has to be a monotonic function Social (Down (to Earth)) has to be lower than Unity (Up).
In this scale we can Count (Y) the people that smoke an amount of cigarettes (X) and can produce a bar-graph.
Autority Ranking is Fragile.
(3) Equality Matching (Mythic, Spirit, Whole) is called an Interval Scale. This scale is used when we want to measure a distance between pairs of items.
The step Unity -> Mythic is called Insight. We move from the Outside World of the Rules of Unity to the Inside World of the View on the Whole of Mythic and find Insight. In this case we balance the One of the outside with the One of the Inside. We compare our Whole with the Whole we find outside.
When we define an Interval Scale we look for the resonance of the Outside World with our own Inside World. We look for our own Image outside and can find peace and balance in looking at our child or partner, a sleeping cat, a wood in autumn, mountains or a sailing ship.
With this scale people can create balance and specify who owes what to whom but also how much they owe. It is a relationship in which people keep track of differences, with reference to an even balance.
The set of admissible transformations has to preserve equality (nominal), the equality of order (ordinal) and the equality of difference/distance and has to satisfy the constraint If s1−s2 = s3−s4 ⇔ f(s1)−f(s2)=f(s3)−f(s4).
When you take the difference between two points you create the concepts More/Less and Mean/Middle. More/Less can be associate with Better/Worse.
In our example of the smokers we can subtract the lowest count of cigarettes of all the other counts. In this case the lowest count becomes an arbitrary zero. We can also calculate the Mean of the amount of cigarettes smoked and define this as a Middle.
Equality Matching is Anti-Fragile.
(4) Market Pricing (Sensory, Action, Reptile Brain) resembles a Ratio Scale.
A ratio scale preserves the equality of equality, order, difference and ratio. Most measurement in the physical sciences and engineering is done on ratio scales. Mass, length, time, plane angle, energy and electric charge are examples.
A Ratio Scale relates a measurement to a standardized unit (of time (Sec), distance (Meters), weight (Kg), …). This unit is a physical object.
The set of admissible transformations has to satisfy the constraint If s1/s2 = s3/s4 ⇔ f(s1)/f(s2) = f(s3)/f(s4). This is called the Linear Group.
The only transformation that satisfies this constraint is the functions f(x) = Ax. This scale supports Multiplication (and its opposite Division).
In this scale we are able to relate a Part to the Whole.
The amount of people who smoke an amount of cigarettes can be divided by the total amount of smokers. This produces a percentage (and a chance).
Market Pricing is Anti-Agile.
18. About Scales, Brains and Social Networks
The scales are Equal and Ordered in a Hierarchy in which the Nominal Scale (Social) has the highest symmetry (“All Points are Equal”) and therefore has the highest potential and is the most resilient. The Ratio Scale is the most restricted and less flexibel.
The Hierarchy follows the Path Sensory/Measure (Anti-Agile) ->Evaluate-> Social (Equality, Agile) -> Consensus -> Unity (Ordering, Fragile) -> Insight-> Mythic (Difference, Anti-Fragile) -> Invent-> Sensory (Proportion). We call this the Path of Measurement.
The Path of Measurement is the same path our Bilateral Brain is moving through.
During Evolution the Triple Brain developed itself according to the same pattern: (1) Reptile Brain (Sensory) , Measure, Survival Brain, Body, Ratio Scale, (2) Limbic Brain (Social), Soul, Social Brain, Nominal Scale (3) Neo Cortex (Unity), Mind, Thinking Brain, Ordinal Scale (4) Whole (Mythic), Thalamus, Spirit, Interval Scale -> Sensory.
If this correlation is true Market Pricing is the Social Structure of the Reptiles, Communal Sharing of the Mammals, Authority Ranking of the Humans and Equality Matching the social Structure of the Creators.
Currently we are highly focused on Market Pricing which is the structure with the lowest flexibility/resilience (Anti-Agile).
Because of our focus on numbers, measurement and standardization we are creating reptile structures that are highly vulnerable to external events.
19. About Resilience – Viable Systems
The word “government” comes from the Greek “kybernan” which means “to steer a ship”. The word “kyberman” is used to name the science of “cybernetics“.
A system is a black-box, an Input/Output-relation. Systems become (Value)Chains/Networks when we connect the output to the input of another system.
Viability means the survival or preservation of identity in a changing environment. A viable system is a resilient system. The Identity is the Whole (Mythic/Imagination) of a System.
For a system to remain viable, it has to maintain its existence within a changing environment. Systems are not perfect and may experience internal defects and deficiencies. Change can happen slowly or suddenly.
Therefore the internal parts of the system must provide both a mutually supportive internal environment and achieve the desired external effects.
The system has to detect and react to threads (survive), be and keep in balance (homeostatis), be maintained, keep up with its environment (innovation, evolution) and be tolerant to damage (redundant).
VSM uses four nested systems to “steer a ship”: (1) the Boundary of the Whole (Mythic) (2) the Environment of the Ship (Social) which contains (3) the ship itself (Object/Body/Action/Operation/Sensory) which contains (4) the Steering System, the Meta-System (Brain/Unity).
The model can be applied to itself by looking again at four “parts” related to Mythic (Whole, Identity), Unity (Models, Research), Materials (Sensory) and Resources (Social).
20. About Resilience – Panarchy
According to the theory (the Model) of Panarchy the Resilience of an Ecology is related to the Potential (Communion) and the Connectedness of a System (Agency). Potential shows what is possible in an ecology. Connectedness shows the control an ecology has over its own future.
In the Exploitation/Conservation phase of the Cycle the ecology becomes more efficient (producing more Potential) and Connected.
The amount of possible paths (the Redundancy) is reduced and the system becomes highly efficient and vulnerable (Fragile) to outside changes.
A stable, resilient system can cope with shocks and disturbances and keep its identity.
In an unstable system, a small disturbance can push the ball over a threshold.
Environmental and social changes can make a system less resilient.
At the state of maximum production and maximum connection (conservation) the system is spending all its potential at self-reproduction. At a certain moment the system collapses (release).
The Adaptive Cycle is the same cycle our Bilateral Brain and the previous mention Path of Measurement of Alan Fiske is moving through.
It moves on many levels with a different cycle time. The levels are connected in two ways. A big calamity can destroy a lot of lower level ecologies or a small calamity (a wildfire) can start a major calamity (revolt).
A system to moves to lower level of Periodicity remembers its previous Cycle to start again.
A Cycle moves up when it revolts. Revolt connects Creativity to Order (called Design in Path of Change) and fuses the diversity of the Cycles to a higher level.
Creativity (fusing the opposites) is the source of Anti-Fragility. In the end it all comes down to Spirit.
Panarchy Theory is by far the most interesting theory about resilience. It shows that resilience is the result of a cyclic proces. Resilience is low when the components of the system have a high level of connectedness. There is only one way to reach the goal.
When a system is highly efficient it is also highly vulnerable.
Redundant systems are able to resist a calamity if and only if one of the possible paths of the system is not affected.
If we don’t know what will happen we need an unknown path to save us. This path is part of an unknown phase space that we are able to calculate if we know more about predictability in general. This issue is covered by Combinatorics a part of mathematics.
Nature has generated a highly redundant system in which it is possible that one of the lines of evolution is able to resist a worldwide calamity.
If we want to destroy resilience we have to destroy the diversity of life-forms on earth.
The Future Center Smart Systems was launched the 23th of April 2014. After the launch a part of the participants wanted to be part of the process.
To support this process we have created an intake-procedure to make sure that the issue at stake is related to Smart Systems and that it is possible to move on if we detect an interesting connection between the possible participant, current participants and LIACS.
An important issue in this case is funding. Funding is possible if the participant has a personal budget or if it possible to acquire a budget based on a shared proposal.
In this case Subsidies, Government Funding (Local/Global Investment Funds), Corporate Funding or Private Funding (“Angels”) are possible. We are now connected with all kinds of investors. If we are able to create a successful business-case funding is almost sure.
The Future Center uses a Innovation Management Toolset that makes it possible to assess an opportunity in short time. The use of the Toolset is not for free. If you don’t have private funding you need about Euro 5,000 Private Capital to acquire money.
The Future Center is situated in Leiden and is connected to LIACS (Leiden Institute of Advanced Computing Science).
Currently we have made connections with the Region of Leiden, the Province of South Holland, the International Alliance of Future Centers and Europe of the Regions. LIACS is part of an International Scientific Networks. We are also connected to many Local, Regional, National and International Business Networks or Companies. This makes it possible to explore every Business, Government or Scientific opportunity.
Smart Systens will have a huge impact on Society, the IT-branche and of course on the users of IT (Consumers & Companies). To support this big (digital) transformation we have made contact with the NGI (the Dutch Organization of IT Professinals).
They have created a link with the Future Center in their SIG-structure (Special Interest Groups). Together with them we are defining a training program to help IT Professionals move to the next step.
Based on the Path of Change Model we use we have defined four basic views called Business Analist (Process, Sensors, Facts), Data Analist (Models, Analytics), Innovator (Imagination, Vision, Insight) and Community Manager (Social, Networks). The views can be combined into twelve roles that correspond with the Games of Path of Change.
Network of Smart Systems Specialists
We have made a connection with an International Network of Specialist that are already creating or supporting the creation of Smart Systems. This network is a Closed Cooperative that wants to maintain the high quality of people by sharing knowledge, experience, insight and customers.
We are now creating the Dutch part of this network. The network uses balloting by two members to enter. If you think you have the high quality needed send an email.
Connecting Small & Medium Enterprises
Although Big Companies are welcome we believe that the coming transformation will be done by networks of Small & Medium Enterprises.
This link contains the current portfolio. We are finishing an attempt to create a Smart System Architecture. A new project related to Smart Vital Infrastructure is in the making. At this moment the majority of the participants are busy in Smart Healthcare.
At 28-4-2014 the Future Center Smart Systems (FCSS) was launched At the same moment the Leiden Center of Data Science (LCDS) was announced. This is not a coincidence.
FCSS and LCDS are two parts of the same coin. LCDS is focused on the Science of Data and FCSS is focused on using the results of the Science of Data to build Smart Systems or to give the Science of Data interesting problems to solve. FCSS is Practice and LCDS is theory.
When we look at Wikipedia we see that the Data Sciences are defined as “The study of the generalizable extraction of knowledge from data”. Knowledge shows itself in this case as Models, Patterns and Laws (Rules).
The Data Sciences detect patterns based on facts and are an abstraction of the Scientific Process itself. The Data Sciences are therefore also called E-Science.
E-Science is a combination of: Signal processing, Mathematics, Probability models, Machine learning, Statistical learning, Computer programming, Data engineering, Pattern recognition and learning, Visualization, Uncertainty modeling, Data warehousing, and High performance computing.
Because E-Science is an abstraction of Science it can be applied to every science you can think of. In the case of the LCDS the current sciences that are involved are Physics, Astronomy, Bio-Science (Leiden Bioscience Park), Life-Sciences (Dutch Techcenter for Life Sciences, DTL), Medical Sciences (LUMC), Law (Leiden Law School), Aviation (NLR), Mathematics and Informatics (LIACS).
The FCSS is not only about E-Science it is also about using the patterns that are discovered to control processes and influence humans. In this case we are interested in the developments in Value, Case & Process-managers, Domain Models and Sensor-Technology. Theory is static and practice is dynamic. Theory becomes practice by doing.
In the long view we expect that the combination of Senses & Actions & Thinking Machines will lead to Autonomous Systems that will help and support Humans. These systems are sometimes called Robots because we believe Autonomous Systems look like us but an autonomous system like our Universe does not have to move itself.
The next step of the Future Center is to connect with practice, start with technology transfer and find out what the need is of the market.
The Future Center is already involved in some projects and we wants to start some more. If you are interested to participate in one of the projects or want to start a new projects send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Smart System Architectures
Smart Systems need Smart System Architectures. They are a combination of existing architectures based on Process-Models & Sensor-Systems (the Sensory-Motor System) and new architecture that are related to Visualization (the Imagination), Analytics (Data, Process, Text, Software-mining (Thinking)) and Social Networks. (Emotions). The end state is called Global Brain (“The Singularity”).
Disclosure of Open Data (Repository, Data Warehouses/Data Cards, Visualization)
A lot of Open Data is entering the market. It is not clear where this data is situated and what the data means. In this case we need a Repository and tools to define what part of the data we need at this moment (a Data Warehouse, Data Cards). We need also tools to hide the complexity of the current open databases and makes it possible to show what is available (Visualization).
Smart Innovation (Business-model generation out of Big- & Open Data)
There are already many on-line tools available that support the innovation process. The data that is used in these tools (for instance market-data) has to be gathered to validate the models. We want to use the Data-sciences to gather appropriate market-data and detect interesting business-opportunities, To do that we want to use Big- and especially Open Data.
The value-chains are integrating and the customer is moving into control. Currently a value chain consists of many companies that use many not integrated and not connected legacy-systems. These systems contain data and process-models. We want to use the Data-Sciences to detect these models (Process-mining. Data-Mining, Software-Mining) and map them to available domain-models (ACCORD, ARTS,…) or develop shared domain-models. The data that is used in the value-chain can be mapped to a product-configurator. Last but not least the user-interaction with the customers has te be designed.
Smart Education (Just-in-Time Education)
Technology is changing fast. This has a huge impact on education. The current system of education is not able to react to the fast moving technology-waves because it is created to support the Industrial Revolution that ended around 1950. We are now beyond the next wave that is taking over manual work and moving into the next step in which the Human Brian is copied. The solution to this all, Life Long Education, is already invented a long time ago but we are not implementing this solution because the Current Education System is aimed at preventive education, trying to train people in the first stage of their life. The solution is Just-in-Time-Education, training people at the moment they need knowledge (DeepQA) or experience (Simulators).
Smart Buildings & Building Process (with ABN AMRO Dialogs House)
The Building Industry is already using 3D-Models (BIM). A BIM-model is a low-level product-configurator but the model can be moved to a higher level in which it is possible to share (and sell) complete Models (for instance a Hospital). The models can be used to simulate every attribute of a building and let the customers play with possible designs. The models can be used to calculate risk and most important optimize existing buildings (Facility Management). When we combine this with sensor-technology we are able to create adaptable buildings.
Smart Food Chain & Dietetics
The Food Value Chain will revert and the customer will be in control. At this moment the customers are educated with theories about food that are changing fast. “Good” Food is time, context and body-dependent. We want to make tools that use personal sensors that show the customer what they have to eat to stay healthy and tell them where and how they can buy this food.
Food & Health (with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
It is not clear what the impact is of Food on our Health. In this project we will analyze the complete food-chain.
Smart Urban Space (The Self Actualizing City)
This is an integration of the concepts of the Smart City, Integrated Value Chains, the Creative City and Smart Social Networks.
Next Generation Media
Media are at this moment based on the Sender/Receiver-concept. We want to use the Data Sciences to detect patterns, transform these patterns into text and images and implement a feed-back process with the customers.
Next Generation Theatre
We want to use the concept of 5D Film to create a new type of sensory and emotional experience.
Using new concepts like the Self-Driving Car & Sensor-Networks to optimize mobility in Big Cities.
Social Enterprises (Impact Finance, Social Bonds, Circular Systems, Cooperatives, Complementary Currencies)
The next generation enterprises has to be aware and reduce its impact on society and environment. In this project we also look the finance of Social Enterprises (Impact Finance, Social Bonds) but also at the circular economy, new organizational structures (cooperations, ) and new financial systems based on complementary currencies.
Preventing and resolving conflicts by implementing Smart Mediation.
Future Jobs (Unemployement & Sense-making, with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
What are the consequences of Smart Systems on employment?
Smart Care Systems
We want to use Smart Systems to help people that need Economic, Physical, Social and/or Mental Support.
Virtual Future Centers (with the International Alliance of Future Centers)
Future Centers are currently location-based. Future Centers look like Smart Systems because they Sense their environment, react (Process Manager) on the Events that are happening, try to predict what will happen (Analytics), involve Networks (Communitiies of Practice, Interest and/or Affinity) and Scientific Knowledge Centers (like the LCDS), create a shared Vision and put this vision into Action (Entrepeneurs, Innovators, Incubators). There are already many people busy with developing parts of the Virtual Future Center. We are currently designing an Architecture and will create an Alliance to join the efforts of all participants.
The Future Center Smart Systems will be launched, 23-4-2014 in the Hague.
To prepare for the interactive part of the meeting this document has been written to provide some Food for Thought.
What is a Future Center?
A Future Center is a place to connect and innovate. We want to create an environment that facilitates interaction and stimulates collaborative action. We want to support cross-innovation and make it possible to make new combinations. Last but not least we want you to challenge Science to produce valuable insights at the right time and the right place.
A Future Center is a Smart System. At this moment it is an interaction system that helps Humans to innovate. In the Future we wil automate the Future Center and automate the innovation-process itself.
A Smart System looks like a human being. It is equipped with a Sensory-Motor-System, a Mind, Imagination and Emotions.
Smart Systems senses the outside (and his inside) world with much more sensors-types than the five sensors of his human look-a-like.
A Smart System is able to react very fast with its predefined processes on a event that is detected by its sensors.
A Smart System is an adaptable system. It is able to analyze and improve its behavior, communicate with a human being and other Smart Systems in an understandable way.
Smart Systems are there to compensate the human biases. Smart Systems are able to transform and optimize everything that contains some kind of structure.
Smart Systems can optimize software, data and content using software/data/text-mining, analyze patterns, predict the short and sometimes the long term.
Smart Systems are perfectly suited to provide the knowledge needed and answer the questions humans ask. They are able to train humans in an almost real situation using simulators.
Smart Systems can be fun to play with.
In 1931 the US Department of Commerce assigned Edward Dewey the task of discovering the cause and underlying dynamics of the Great Depression. Dewey created a special institute called the Foundation for the Study of Cycles that is still in existence.
The most interesting observation of Dewey is that Cycles restore themselves all the time and are connected by a Harmonic (“Musical”) Pattern. Dewey discovered that we cannot control the Cycles. Ups and downs are a fact of life.
The most researched Cycle in history by far is the Kondratiev-Cycle named after the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev. The Kondratiev Cycle has a periodicity of 52 years.
The Kondratiev arises from the combination of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors.
In the year 2000 the Kondratiev was at his top and is now in a decline that will take 26 years.
Currently we are in the Kondratiev Spring Phase. It is the time of what Schumpeter, a big fan of Kondratiev, called Creative Destruction.
The old structures are dying and the new structures that will start the new upward wave are created. It is a time of tremendous disruptions.
About the Software Factory
The last wave that started around 1950 was dominated by the rise of the centralized computer.
This computer was based on the factory-model of Henry Ford and Frederick Winslow Taylor of the previous wave.
Between 1950-2000 isolated creative programmers united in big software factories that are controlled by unified standardized methods and processes. Between 1950-2000 the programmers automated their own processes.
The methods are now transformed into standardized (BPML-)process-models that are abstracted into standardized (VDML-) business models that are filled with Industry-Models. An example is the ARTS-model that covers Retail.
Creative programmers are now replaced by creative business-modelers.
About the Next Wave, The Network of the Human Mind
On Christmas 1990 Tim Berners-Lee working at CERN published the first version of The World Wide Web. He launched the theme for the next wave, The Network.
From 1950 until 2000 the causal linear manual processes were automated but now the next level, the network of the human mind is at stake.
At the end of this wave around 2040 or much earlier as some people predict, the machines will imitate and surpass the human because they will unite in a global brain that can be connected to our Brains if we want that to happen.
At this moment we are creating the memory-banks of the Global Brain by producing billions of connected parts that contain complete human life’s, theories, music, movies, measurements and much more that we are now unable to imagine.
A Short Scenario for the Next Forty Years
It is clear that the Business-Domain-Models will speed up the process of value-chain-integration and value-chain-reversal.
This means that the customer will be in control of the value-chain en there will be direct contact between customer and producer. Value-chain-integration will in the end remove all the intermediaries in the value chain.
Value chains will finally converge into one standardized value chain. Best-practices of separate value-chains will become leaders in the new value-chain. Cross-innovation, combining the best of all worlds, is the way to move on.
To give customers control of the value-chain producers have to simplify their products and make it possible for the customers to create their own version of the product they want.
Products have to become configurations of simple building blocks that can be split into variable parts and infrastructure. Product-configurators will connect to other configurators. This makes it possible to create completely new combinations.
In the next step the data that is produced by the systems will be analyzed and processes will not be controlled by human made models but by models that are created by statistical pattern recognition tools. The systems will understand humans and predict human behavior and adapt themselves to the human needs.
In the last stage the software will produce an image that reduces the complexity of its whole. It will create a virtual human world that gives us the illusion that we are still in control.
At that time most people will play and not work.
The most important question you have to ask yourself is if your company is part of the “old world” that will finally be destructed by creativity or is already part of the new wave.
The big problem is change management, how to move from the current state to a for most companies and institutions unknown future. Companies, Institutions and People have to transform their collaboration patterns, their software, their data and their expertise.
The change process is accelerating. Almost all companies and institutions (and governments) are stuck in their installed base of software and their hierarchical organization structure that is not created to respond fast to the challenges that come from the outside word.
Wednesday the 23th of April 2014 13:00 – 17:00 we want to launch the Future Center Smart Systems.
The meeting will take place in the Living Lab of the The Hague Centre for Innovation, 2nd floor Campus Den Haag, Schouwburgstraat 2, 2511 VA Den Haag.
The Future Center is an initiative of LIACS, Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science and Constable Research BV.
A Future Center is a place of dialogue and innovation.
Scientific research needs complicated real-life problems to solve to improve their theories. R&D wants to use proven solutions to improve or innovate their products or services.
R&D and Science can easily work together if the long-term strategy of Science matches with the short-term needs of Industry and Government. That is why we need to have a permanent dialogue.
We want to start a dialogue about Smart Systems between Scientific Research and the R&D of big and small companies and government agencies.
Smart Systems are and will be everywhere. Smart Systems control the car you (still) drive and the planes you fly. Smart Systems trade on the stock market, diagnose your illness and design sustainable buildings.
Smart Systems will manage courts & lawyers, cities, logistics and food safety. Smart Systems will entertain you and will stimulate your imagination. Smart Systems will even help you to innovate.
They are a combination of Analytics (Big Data), Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, Process/Case-Managers, Robots, Sensors (The Internet of Things), Simulators, Games, Intelligent User-Interaction (Augmented & Virtual Reality) and Social Networks.
The Smart Systems Future Center aims to help you find out what is happening with new technologies and its applications, what is already possible and what will be possible in the future.
We also want to discuss the big impact Smart Systems will have on our society. Many experts believe Smart Systems will lead to a huge increase of unemployment not only on the level of the not educated people but also on the level of the highly educated.
Others believe that the Smart Systems (“the machines, the robots”) will take over the World. They believe that this moment called the Singularity is near. It is certain that Smart Systems will disrupt almost every company in the world.
To prepare you for the future we want to connect people, companies and government agencies. We want to participate in projects and start the development of new research, new services or companies. We can also help with the funding of these projects.
In the first meeting representatives of other Future Centers in the Netherlands (ABN AMRO, Tax Office, Ministry of Infrastucture) will share their experiences, we want to tell you about the state of the art in Big Data and have an interactive discussion about our future plans and priorities and how you want to be part of this dialogue.
If you are interested to come to the meeting or want to be informed by email about what we are doing please send an email to email@example.com. If you know people who could be interested to join our Future Center please forward this link to them.
Local energy-companies are part of a movement aimed at Autarky. Autarky is the quality of being self-sufficient.
The word Autarky comes from Greek αὐτάρκεια (autárkeia), itself from αὐτός (autós) = self and ἀρκέω (arkéo) which in its passive form means be satisfied, content or “Out of my own Power“.
The need to become self-sufficient has certainly to do with the current economic-, ecological- and energy crisis. People are afraid that the supply of vital energy and food will suddenly stop or become priceless. This is not the only reason.
Some people think we are wasting our money, food and energy by producing nondurable throw-away goods in which the packaging is sometimes more important than the content. They want to create durable products and services. This is not the only reason.
Some people don’t trust the suppliers of their food and energy, their politicians and/or the caretakers of their savings, the banks, anymore. They believe that their food is intentionally manipulated, their savings are wasted, their country is sold out to the rich and their environment is polluted for just one simple reason, Greed, the opposite of “Being Satisfied”.
The people of the autarkic movement want to recreate the necessary functions (bank, energy, food, work, healthcare, government) themselves in a cooperative way in their own living context.
The local cooperatives are now joining on a higher (mostly country) level and are in need of a shared (real-time)infrastructure. The current infrastructure does not support flows that move between many participants (so called peer-to-peer-networks).
The current system is a Hierarchic Top Down System containing Huge Highways that are connected to Big Production-facilities. This makes it impossible to consolidate, share and distribute resources peer-to-peer on a local level.
The Top Down System has created Global Markets where the local production is sold to the highest bidder.
The Global Markets are the playing field for advanced speculators that make a lot of money. After the deal is made the local production is transported to a far away destination. That is the reason why the Top Down Systems are integrated in world-wide Logistic Systems.
If we want to coordinate all the local initiatives we need advanced systems that Up- and download, control, predict, connect, share, balance and distribute vital local resources on the short and long term.
All of these fysical Flow Systems, that map 1 Resource-> on Many Resources or Many Resources->on 1 Resource, are based on the third Law of Thermodynamics called Constructal Law.
In the philosophy of the Stoics and Cynics of Ancient Greece the perfect human was not only arete (“all-around excellent”) but also independent of every need. Arete was associated with a full life as a citizen of a city.
Autarky was the ideal of a complete man who needed no one and no organization. This ideal can also be found in Zen Buddhism, Taoist practise, Early Christians (Nazarites), the Catholic Order of the Franciscans and the Protestant Quakers.
In reality it is almost impossible to be completely self-sufficient as a lonely human being. We need others when we are young, sick and old and we need others because we are specialized (“Talented”). Autarky is a possible aim for a small community.
The religious, cultural and political movements at the left and the right aimed at living the “good life” (“Living Slow“) are converging in the movement of the Cultural Creatives. The Cultural Creatives are the new Elite that is moving to the AND-state (Left AND Right).
They don’t believe in the old Competitive Ideologies (Socialist, Capitalist, Religious, Liberal, Nationalist, Conservative, Globalist, etc..) but want to focus on the Shared Collaborative Values between all Humans. We all need Love, Food and Shelter.
Autarky has always been a major political aim of countries. Autarky is about the possibility to control your own future and to become independent of other powers that could use your dependency to tell you what to do to get what you desperately want.
At this moment the shortage of fossil fuels, especially oil and gaz, is used to influence the policy of other countries and is the cause of local conflicts in the Middle East.
China is buying all kinds of vital materials to make sure their economy will not become dependent on others. If they will succeed and nobody doubts about that, they will become the economic controlling power of the world.
Reaching a state of local autarky, being satisfied with what your environment provides you, has become the aim of the wordwide sustainability movement.
A strive for (regional) Autarky pushes the need to innovate to a higher level because not all regions contain the right materials, knowledge or experience to realize everything everybody needs. To become fully Autarkic the Production and Consumption Systems in the Region have to be based on simple concepts and parts that are available everywhere. Simple concepts are concepts that are easely copied.
The only way to combine Simple and Complex concepts is to use the Concept of Self-Reference (Fractals). The only way to make use of parts that are available everywhere is to make use of the Simple Building Blocks of Nature. A good example is the use of algea in food processing.
The concept of Autonomy not only plays an important role on the many levels of human (personal, organization, country) and animal society (Competitive vs Collaborative (Ants)). It is also a major subject in the research of (Second-Order) Cybernetics (Control Theory).
Second Order Cybernetics is concerned with the Control of the System of Systems (the Meta-System). Hierarchy is not the solution to this problem because it leads to the logical problem of Infinite Regress (“Turtles on turtles on … all the way down”).
The Meta-System is controlling, reproducing and balancing itself by a Fractal Feedback-Cycle that moves Backwards (Consumption) and Forwards (Production).
A System is an Autarky if all its Levels are capable of Self-Reproduction.
If a human wants to become self-sufficient he has to accept and develop his own talent and find complementary people so he is able to create a Self-Reproducing Unit.
The smallest Self-Reproducing Unit in Human Society is the Family living in one House. This House has to produce more than enough Energy and the Garden has to produce more than enough food to support the Family.
If we cluster all these Self-Reproducing Families/Houses & Gardens in a small City the chances are high that the combined talents of the families will be able to supply every profession needed if the people of the city want to Live a Simple Life.
It is also possible that the surplusses and shortages of the families can be compensated by creating a Market on the level of the small City or one level higher, the Region.
An Autarkic Movement becomes an Aggressive Competitive Nationalistic Movement when the Citizens of the Country feel that their Country is plundered by outsiders and their Leaders promise to get it all back by expanding the Space to Live (“Lebensraum“) to facilitate everything that is needed.
This happened when Germany was preparing for War after the enormous reparation payments of 132 billion gold marks to the Winners of World War I.
The Autarkic Movement could also become a Peaceful Cooperative Social Movement like the Movement of Gandhi in India when the people accept the Good Life they already live and want to share the surpluses with others who are in a worse state.